NASDAQ$MERC

Mercer International Inc · Q1 2023 earnings

Q1 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Mercer International Inc. reported first quarter results with a net loss of $30.6 million and Operating EBITDA of $27.5 million.

Mercer International Inc. reported a decrease in revenue and a net loss for Q1 2023, impacted by lower pulp sales volumes, lower lumber and energy sales realizations, and higher fiber and chemical costs. The company's Operating EBITDA decreased significantly compared to the same quarter in the previous year, while the Mass Timber business continued to grow its cross-laminated timber order book.

  • First quarter Operating EBITDA was $27.5 million, which includes a $15.2 million non-cash inventory impairment charge.
  • Net loss for the first quarter was $30.6 million (or $0.46 per share).
  • Pulp segment had strong production with an increase of approximately 7% compared to the fourth quarter of 2022.
  • Lumber production increased approximately 14% compared to the fourth quarter of 2022, with sales volumes increasing approximately 41%.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$523M

Previous: $593M-11.8%
EPS (adj)

-$0.46

Previous: $1.34-134.3%
Capital Expenditures

-$33.4M

Previous: -$33.3M-0.4%
Free Cash Flow

-$64M

Previous: $55.6M-215.1%
Net Income

-$30.6M

Previous: $88.9M-134.4%
Operating Income

-$20.1M

Previous: $122M-116.4%
Gross Profit

-$509M

Previous: -$448M-13.5%
Cash & Equivalents

$301M

Previous: $411M-26.8%
Total Assets

$2.74B

Previous: $2.46B+11.5%
Stock-Based Comp

$1.23M

Previous: $949K+29.2%

Revenue & EPS history

Mercer · Revenue · Quarterly

$523M

Q1 2023-11.8%vs Q1 2022
Beat estimate in 11 of 14 quarters(79%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Mercer · $523M total across 3 segments · Q1 2023

  • Pulp Segment
    $400M-17.6%
  • Solid Wood Segment
    $121M
  • Corporate and Other
    $1.25M

Forward guidance

Looking forward to the second quarter of 2023, Mercer currently believes pulp prices will decline, with additional downward pricing pressure on hardwood pulp. Lumber demand is expected to see a modest increase as we move into the residential construction season, which we believe will also create some upward pricing pressure. Our Mass Timber business continues to grow its order book.

Tailwinds

  • Lumber demand is expected to see a modest increase as we move into the residential construction season, which we believe will also create some upward pricing pressure.
  • Our Mass Timber business continues to grow its order book.
  • Experiencing reductions in input costs such as fiber and chemicals.
  • Company has strong liquidity and a strong operational foundation.
  • Company will continue to manage our liquidity and working capital prudently and run the Company based on continuous improvement to enhance efficiency and lower costs.

Headwinds

  • Pulp prices will decline, with additional downward pricing pressure on hardwood pulp
  • Market adjusts to new South American supply
  • Economic uncertainty and high inflation have negatively impacted our short-term financial results.
  • Lower prices for most of our products in the quarter.
  • Lower pulp prices were primarily the result of weak demand out of China, while lumber prices were weak through the first quarter as high interest rates and uncertain economic indicators impacted residential construction.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2023

Historical avgQ1 2023

+0.3%

Avg return

Earnings day

-1.2%

Avg return

5 days after

-1.7%

Avg return

30 days after

44%

28 / 64 earnings

Positive

+24.5%

Q4 2015

Best reaction

-15.5%

Q1 2010

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+3.6%-26.9%-24.3%
Q3 2025-6.9%-6.3%-11.7%
Q1 2025-7.3%-20.0%-15.0%
Q4 2024+16.9%+22.8%-1.1%
Q3 2024-0.2%-2.3%-4.3%
Q2 2024+6.6%+0.8%-12.6%
Q1 2024-2.4%-3.3%-17.2%
Q4 2023+9.1%+7.7%+20.4%
Q3 2023+22.4%+19.3%+23.4%
Q2 2023+7.1%-4.9%+7.1%
Q1 2023-5.1%-3.6%-6.7%
Q4 2022-2.4%-5.6%-17.8%
Q3 2022-4.7%-11.6%-3.4%
Q2 2022+0.0%-5.4%+1.8%
Q1 2022+1.4%+3.5%-5.4%
Q4 2021+1.4%+4.6%+11.0%
Q3 2021+2.2%+0.3%+5.7%
Q2 2021-0.3%+0.9%+0.4%
Q1 2021-3.8%-5.8%-13.4%
Q4 2020-4.8%-2.2%+5.9%
Q3 2020+6.8%+16.5%+39.9%
Q2 2020-6.9%-10.5%+6.0%
Q1 2020-2.9%-13.9%-16.1%
Q4 2019-5.5%-4.5%-30.8%
Q3 2019+3.4%+6.9%+1.9%
Q2 2019-5.4%-10.6%-7.6%
Q1 2019+23.8%+23.8%+2.0%
Q4 2018-2.3%-3.7%-9.4%
Q3 2018-8.0%-13.0%-30.8%
Q2 2018+2.1%+7.2%+5.7%
Q1 2018+1.5%+7.1%+20.6%
Q4 2017+1.5%-2.3%-0.8%
Q3 2017-2.4%+2.8%+0.0%
Q2 2017-7.0%-9.0%-9.0%
Q1 2017-2.0%-5.2%-7.6%
Q4 2016+0.4%+4.2%+2.1%
Q3 2016+1.9%+1.3%+23.2%
Q2 2016-3.2%-2.7%+2.9%
Q1 2016-12.8%
Q4 2015+24.5%
Q3 2015+1.7%
Q2 2015-0.9%
Q1 2015-2.4%
Q4 2014+0.9%
Q3 2014+11.4%
Q2 2014+0.3%
Q1 2014+8.3%
Q4 2013+0.6%
Q3 2013+5.6%
Q2 2013+0.0%
Q1 2013+0.5%
Q4 2012-0.7%
Q3 2012-0.1%
Q2 2012+7.2%
Q1 2011-0.1%
Q1 2012+0.6%
Q4 2009-0.3%
Q4 2011-0.3%
Q3 2011-5.7%
Q3 2010-5.7%
Q2 2010-9.1%
Q2 2011-9.1%
Q4 2010-9.1%
Q1 2010-15.5%

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