NASDAQ$MERC

Mercer International Inc · Q4 2021 earnings

Q4 2021 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Mercer International Inc. reported record fourth quarter operating results driven by strong sales volumes, steady pulp and lumber pricing, and higher energy prices in Germany. The company also benefited from the settlement of a business interruption insurance claim.

Mercer International Inc. reported a strong fourth quarter with record Operating EBITDA of $164.9 million and net income of $74.5 million. The results were driven by strong sales volumes, steady pulp and lumber pricing, and higher energy prices.

  • Fourth quarter net income was $74.5 million and Operating EBITDA was a record $164.9 million.
  • Full year 2021 net income was a record $171.0 million and Operating EBITDA was a record $478.8 million.
  • Strong sales volumes and steady pulp and lumber pricing drove the results.
  • The company benefited from the settlement of a business interruption insurance claim.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$519M

Previous: $398M+30.3%
EPS (adj)

$1.12

Previous: -$0.20+660.0%
Avg Lumber Sales Realizations

$689.00

Previous: $467.00+47.5%
Capital Expenditures

$33.7M

Previous: $19.3M+74.7%
Free Cash Flow

-$3.12M

Previous: -$503K-519.9%
Net Income

$74.5M

Previous: -$13M+674.3%
Operating Income

$130M

Previous: $15.6M+732.2%
Gross Profit

$184M

Previous: $33.2M+453.7%
Cash & Equivalents

$346M

Previous: $361M-4.3%
Total Assets

$2.35B

Previous: $2.13B+10.4%
Stock-Based Comp

-$196K

Previous: $113K-273.5%

Revenue & EPS history

Mercer · Revenue · Quarterly

$519M

Q4 2021+30.3%vs Q4 2020
Beat estimate in 9 of 16 quarters(56%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Mercer · $468M total across 2 segments · Q3 2023

  • Pulp Segment
    $349M-23.6%
  • Solid Wood Segment
    $120M+61.0%

Forward guidance

Looking ahead to the first quarter of 2022, the company expects relatively strong NBSK markets globally, steady or modestly improving hardwood prices, and steady lumber demand with modest price improvements in the U.S. market.

Tailwinds

  • Relatively strong NBSK markets globally.
  • Improving sentiment and demand for pulp and paper.
  • Supply interruptions in Canada and Scandinavia are supportive of a positive pricing outlook.
  • Hardwood prices are expected to remain steady or improve modestly.
  • Lumber demand is expected to remain steady in all markets with modest price improvements in the U.S. market.

Headwinds

  • Longer term new incremental supply may lead to hardwood pricing pressure.
  • Global logistics bottleneck primarily with respect to North American rail traffic where pandemic related slowdowns and extreme weather have made rail service inconsistent.
  • COVID-19 infections and health risks, including from variants and additional “waves” remain.
  • Higher capital spending in 2022.
  • Logistical issues caused 35,000 tonnes of pulp from Canadian operations to Asia to be delayed, with revenue reflected in Q1 2022.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2021

Historical avgQ4 2021

+0.3%

Avg return

Earnings day

-1.2%

Avg return

5 days after

-1.7%

Avg return

30 days after

44%

28 / 64 earnings

Positive

+24.5%

Q4 2015

Best reaction

-15.5%

Q1 2010

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+3.6%-26.9%-24.3%
Q3 2025-6.9%-6.3%-11.7%
Q1 2025-7.3%-20.0%-15.0%
Q4 2024+16.9%+22.8%-1.1%
Q3 2024-0.2%-2.3%-4.3%
Q2 2024+6.6%+0.8%-12.6%
Q1 2024-2.4%-3.3%-17.2%
Q4 2023+9.1%+7.7%+20.4%
Q3 2023+22.4%+19.3%+23.4%
Q2 2023+7.1%-4.9%+7.1%
Q1 2023-5.1%-3.6%-6.7%
Q4 2022-2.4%-5.6%-17.8%
Q3 2022-4.7%-11.6%-3.4%
Q2 2022+0.0%-5.4%+1.8%
Q1 2022+1.4%+3.5%-5.4%
Q4 2021+1.4%+4.6%+11.0%
Q3 2021+2.2%+0.3%+5.7%
Q2 2021-0.3%+0.9%+0.4%
Q1 2021-3.8%-5.8%-13.4%
Q4 2020-4.8%-2.2%+5.9%
Q3 2020+6.8%+16.5%+39.9%
Q2 2020-6.9%-10.5%+6.0%
Q1 2020-2.9%-13.9%-16.1%
Q4 2019-5.5%-4.5%-30.8%
Q3 2019+3.4%+6.9%+1.9%
Q2 2019-5.4%-10.6%-7.6%
Q1 2019+23.8%+23.8%+2.0%
Q4 2018-2.3%-3.7%-9.4%
Q3 2018-8.0%-13.0%-30.8%
Q2 2018+2.1%+7.2%+5.7%
Q1 2018+1.5%+7.1%+20.6%
Q4 2017+1.5%-2.3%-0.8%
Q3 2017-2.4%+2.8%+0.0%
Q2 2017-7.0%-9.0%-9.0%
Q1 2017-2.0%-5.2%-7.6%
Q4 2016+0.4%+4.2%+2.1%
Q3 2016+1.9%+1.3%+23.2%
Q2 2016-3.2%-2.7%+2.9%
Q1 2016-12.8%
Q4 2015+24.5%
Q3 2015+1.7%
Q2 2015-0.9%
Q1 2015-2.4%
Q4 2014+0.9%
Q3 2014+11.4%
Q2 2014+0.3%
Q1 2014+8.3%
Q4 2013+0.6%
Q3 2013+5.6%
Q2 2013+0.0%
Q1 2013+0.5%
Q4 2012-0.7%
Q3 2012-0.1%
Q2 2012+7.2%
Q1 2011-0.1%
Q1 2012+0.6%
Q4 2009-0.3%
Q4 2011-0.3%
Q3 2011-5.7%
Q3 2010-5.7%
Q2 2010-9.1%
Q2 2011-9.1%
Q4 2010-9.1%
Q1 2010-15.5%

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