NASDAQ$MERC

Mercer International Inc · Q4 2020 earnings

Q4 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Mercer International Inc. reported mixed results with increased revenues but a net loss, driven by strong wood product segment performance and improved pulp pricing, offset by maintenance costs and fiber costs.

Mercer International Inc. reported a 20% increase in revenue to $398.2 million compared to Q4 2019, driven by higher pulp and energy sales volumes and higher lumber sales realizations. However, the company experienced a net loss of $13.0 million, or $0.20 per share, compared to a net loss of $72.7 million, or $1.11 per share in Q4 2019. Operating EBITDA increased to $49.5 million from negative $34.2 million in the same quarter of 2019.

  • Operating EBITDA increased to $49.5 million from negative $34.2 million in Q4 2019.
  • Net loss was $13.0 million (or $0.20 per share) compared to a net loss of $72.7 million (or $1.11 per share) in Q4 2019.
  • Record quarterly wood products segment results driven by strong demand and robust pricing in the U.S. market.
  • Pulp sales volumes increased by approximately 13% to a record 469,544 ADMTs.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$398M

Previous: $331M+20.2%
EPS (adj)

-$0.20

Previous: -$1.04+80.8%
Avg Lumber Sales Realizations

$467.00

Previous: $347.00+34.6%
Capital Expenditures

$19.3M

Previous: $50.6M-61.8%
Free Cash Flow

-$503K

Previous: $5.9M-108.5%
Net Income

-$13M

Previous: -$72.7M+82.2%
Operating Income

$15.6M

Previous: -$66.1M+123.6%
Gross Profit

$33.2M

Previous: -$46.5M+171.2%
Cash & Equivalents

$361M

Previous: $351M+2.9%
Total Assets

$2.13B

Previous: $2.07B+3.1%
Stock-Based Comp

$113K

Previous: $1M-88.7%

Revenue & EPS history

Mercer · Revenue · Quarterly

$398M

Q4 2020+20.2%vs Q4 2019
Beat estimate in 6 of 16 quarters(38%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Mercer · $345M total across 2 segments · Q4 2020

  • Pulp Segment
    $344M+18.3%
  • Corporate and Other
    $1.03M

Forward guidance

The company expects stable pulp demand and modestly improving prices during the course of 2021, along with continued strong lumber demand and prices in the U.S. market and modestly improving sales realizations in the European market.

Tailwinds

  • Improving fundamentals in pulp demand and markets.
  • Continued price increases implemented in 2021 to date.
  • Continuing strong lumber markets.
  • Ample liquidity position.
  • Expects continued strong lumber demand and prices in the U.S. market along with modestly improving sales realizations in the European market.

Headwinds

  • Planned annual maintenance downtime of 20 days (approximately 27,600 ADMTs) in pulp mills during the first quarter of 2021.
  • Continued economic uncertainty as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic.
  • Second wave in reported infections in Europe, the United States and Canada.
  • Emergence of new variants of the virus.
  • It will be some time before the pandemic is behind us.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2020

Historical avgQ4 2020

+0.3%

Avg return

Earnings day

-1.2%

Avg return

5 days after

-1.7%

Avg return

30 days after

44%

28 / 64 earnings

Positive

+24.5%

Q4 2015

Best reaction

-15.5%

Q1 2010

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+3.6%-26.9%-24.3%
Q3 2025-6.9%-6.3%-11.7%
Q1 2025-7.3%-20.0%-15.0%
Q4 2024+16.9%+22.8%-1.1%
Q3 2024-0.2%-2.3%-4.3%
Q2 2024+6.6%+0.8%-12.6%
Q1 2024-2.4%-3.3%-17.2%
Q4 2023+9.1%+7.7%+20.4%
Q3 2023+22.4%+19.3%+23.4%
Q2 2023+7.1%-4.9%+7.1%
Q1 2023-5.1%-3.6%-6.7%
Q4 2022-2.4%-5.6%-17.8%
Q3 2022-4.7%-11.6%-3.4%
Q2 2022+0.0%-5.4%+1.8%
Q1 2022+1.4%+3.5%-5.4%
Q4 2021+1.4%+4.6%+11.0%
Q3 2021+2.2%+0.3%+5.7%
Q2 2021-0.3%+0.9%+0.4%
Q1 2021-3.8%-5.8%-13.4%
Q4 2020-4.8%-2.2%+5.9%
Q3 2020+6.8%+16.5%+39.9%
Q2 2020-6.9%-10.5%+6.0%
Q1 2020-2.9%-13.9%-16.1%
Q4 2019-5.5%-4.5%-30.8%
Q3 2019+3.4%+6.9%+1.9%
Q2 2019-5.4%-10.6%-7.6%
Q1 2019+23.8%+23.8%+2.0%
Q4 2018-2.3%-3.7%-9.4%
Q3 2018-8.0%-13.0%-30.8%
Q2 2018+2.1%+7.2%+5.7%
Q1 2018+1.5%+7.1%+20.6%
Q4 2017+1.5%-2.3%-0.8%
Q3 2017-2.4%+2.8%+0.0%
Q2 2017-7.0%-9.0%-9.0%
Q1 2017-2.0%-5.2%-7.6%
Q4 2016+0.4%+4.2%+2.1%
Q3 2016+1.9%+1.3%+23.2%
Q2 2016-3.2%-2.7%+2.9%
Q1 2016-12.8%
Q4 2015+24.5%
Q3 2015+1.7%
Q2 2015-0.9%
Q1 2015-2.4%
Q4 2014+0.9%
Q3 2014+11.4%
Q2 2014+0.3%
Q1 2014+8.3%
Q4 2013+0.6%
Q3 2013+5.6%
Q2 2013+0.0%
Q1 2013+0.5%
Q4 2012-0.7%
Q3 2012-0.1%
Q2 2012+7.2%
Q1 2011-0.1%
Q1 2012+0.6%
Q4 2009-0.3%
Q4 2011-0.3%
Q3 2011-5.7%
Q3 2010-5.7%
Q2 2010-9.1%
Q2 2011-9.1%
Q4 2010-9.1%
Q1 2010-15.5%

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