NASDAQ$MERC

Mercer International Inc · Q3 2024 earnings

Q3 2024 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Mercer's financial performance increased due to higher pulp and manufactured products sales realizations and managed to mitigate the impacts of unplanned downtime.

Mercer International Inc. reported an increase in third quarter Operating EBITDA to $50.5 million, up from $37.5 million in the same quarter of 2023. The net loss was $17.6 million ($0.26 per share), compared to a net loss of $26.0 million ($0.39 per share) in the third quarter of 2023.

  • Operating EBITDA increased by 35% to $50.5 million from $37.5 million in the same quarter of 2023.
  • Softwood pulp markets continued to be strong.
  • Pulp volumes were impacted by unplanned downtime.
  • A quarterly cash dividend of $0.075 per share was announced.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$502M

Previous: $471M+6.7%
EPS

-$0.26

Previous: -$0.39+33.3%
Average NBSK Pulp Sales Realizations

$814.00

No prior period
Average NBHK Pulp Sales Realizations

$632.00

No prior period
Lumber Production (MMfbm)

122.5M

Previous: 94.4M+29.8%
Capital Expenditures

-$27.3M

Previous: -$37.4M+27.1%
Free Cash Flow

-$44.8M

Previous: -$63.3M+29.2%
Net Income

-$17.6M

Previous: -$26M+32.4%
Operating Income

$8.84M

Previous: -$3.43M+358.1%
Gross Profit

-$464M

Previous: -$444M-4.5%
Cash & Equivalents

$239M

Previous: $344M-30.5%
Total Assets

$2.5B

Previous: $2.66B-5.7%
Stock-Based Comp

$1.42M

Previous: $1.75M-19.0%

Revenue & EPS history

Mercer · Revenue · Quarterly

$502M

Q3 2024+6.7%vs Q3 2023
Beat estimate in 11 of 14 quarters(79%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Mercer · $468M total across 2 segments · Q3 2023

  • Pulp Segment
    $349M-23.6%
  • Solid Wood Segment
    $120M+61.0%

Forward guidance

Going into the fourth quarter, with the impacts of the unplanned downtime and production events behind us, we are optimistic that we will be able to capitalize on the continued strength we are seeing in softwood pulp markets.

Tailwinds

  • The Peace River mill was restarted earlier than initially expected, limiting the related downtime in the fourth quarter to an additional 12 days.
  • There is no remaining downtime planned at pulp mills for the rest of 2024.
  • Softwood pulp prices in both North America and Europe remained at historically high levels.
  • There was positive pricing momentum for softwood pulp towards the end of the third quarter in China.
  • Moderate increments in lumber prices are expected in both the United States and United Kingdom markets in the fourth quarter of 2024.

Headwinds

  • Demand is traditionally weaker in the third quarter due to seasonal factors.
  • Hardwood pulp prices in China decreased in the third quarter of 2024 as the market absorbed increased capacity.
  • Lumber sales realizations decreased slightly in the third quarter of 2024 compared to the second quarter.
  • High interest rates continue to impact construction activity in Europe and North America, dampening the near-term growth for the solid wood segment.
  • Modestly higher per unit fiber costs in solid wood segment due to strong demand.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2024

Historical avgQ3 2024

+0.3%

Avg return

Earnings day

-1.2%

Avg return

5 days after

-1.7%

Avg return

30 days after

44%

28 / 64 earnings

Positive

+24.5%

Q4 2015

Best reaction

-15.5%

Q1 2010

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+3.6%-26.9%-24.3%
Q3 2025-6.9%-6.3%-11.7%
Q1 2025-7.3%-20.0%-15.0%
Q4 2024+16.9%+22.8%-1.1%
Q3 2024-0.2%-2.3%-4.3%
Q2 2024+6.6%+0.8%-12.6%
Q1 2024-2.4%-3.3%-17.2%
Q4 2023+9.1%+7.7%+20.4%
Q3 2023+22.4%+19.3%+23.4%
Q2 2023+7.1%-4.9%+7.1%
Q1 2023-5.1%-3.6%-6.7%
Q4 2022-2.4%-5.6%-17.8%
Q3 2022-4.7%-11.6%-3.4%
Q2 2022+0.0%-5.4%+1.8%
Q1 2022+1.4%+3.5%-5.4%
Q4 2021+1.4%+4.6%+11.0%
Q3 2021+2.2%+0.3%+5.7%
Q2 2021-0.3%+0.9%+0.4%
Q1 2021-3.8%-5.8%-13.4%
Q4 2020-4.8%-2.2%+5.9%
Q3 2020+6.8%+16.5%+39.9%
Q2 2020-6.9%-10.5%+6.0%
Q1 2020-2.9%-13.9%-16.1%
Q4 2019-5.5%-4.5%-30.8%
Q3 2019+3.4%+6.9%+1.9%
Q2 2019-5.4%-10.6%-7.6%
Q1 2019+23.8%+23.8%+2.0%
Q4 2018-2.3%-3.7%-9.4%
Q3 2018-8.0%-13.0%-30.8%
Q2 2018+2.1%+7.2%+5.7%
Q1 2018+1.5%+7.1%+20.6%
Q4 2017+1.5%-2.3%-0.8%
Q3 2017-2.4%+2.8%+0.0%
Q2 2017-7.0%-9.0%-9.0%
Q1 2017-2.0%-5.2%-7.6%
Q4 2016+0.4%+4.2%+2.1%
Q3 2016+1.9%+1.3%+23.2%
Q2 2016-3.2%-2.7%+2.9%
Q1 2016-12.8%
Q4 2015+24.5%
Q3 2015+1.7%
Q2 2015-0.9%
Q1 2015-2.4%
Q4 2014+0.9%
Q3 2014+11.4%
Q2 2014+0.3%
Q1 2014+8.3%
Q4 2013+0.6%
Q3 2013+5.6%
Q2 2013+0.0%
Q1 2013+0.5%
Q4 2012-0.7%
Q3 2012-0.1%
Q2 2012+7.2%
Q1 2011-0.1%
Q1 2012+0.6%
Q4 2009-0.3%
Q4 2011-0.3%
Q3 2011-5.7%
Q3 2010-5.7%
Q2 2010-9.1%
Q2 2011-9.1%
Q4 2010-9.1%
Q1 2010-15.5%

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