NASDAQ$MEDP

Medpace Holdings Inc. · Q4 2024 earnings

Q4 2024 earnings · · After market close · Investor relations

Briefing

Medpace Holdings, Inc. reported a strong Q4 2024 with revenue growth of 7.7% YoY to $536.6 million. Net income increased significantly to $117.0 million, with diluted EPS of $3.67. The company's backlog increased slightly, while net new business awards saw a decline of 13.8%. EBITDA rose by 39.3% to $133.5 million, with an EBITDA margin of 24.9%.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$537M

Previous: $498M+7.7%
EPS (adj)

$3.67

Previous: $2.46+49.2%
Net New Business Awards

$530M

Previous: $615M-13.8%
Net Income Margin

21.8%

No prior period
EBITDA

$134M

No prior period
EBITDA Margin

24.9%

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

-$7.64M

Previous: -$9.99M+23.5%
Net Income

$117M

Previous: $78.3M+49.5%
Operating Income

$125M

Previous: $87.3M+43.6%
Gross Profit

$171M

Previous: $137M+24.9%

Revenue & EPS history

Medpace · Revenue · Quarterly

$537M

Q4 2024+7.7%vs Q4 2023
Beat estimate in 12 of 15 quarters(80%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

Medpace projects 2025 revenue in the range of $2.11 billion to $2.21 billion, representing growth of up to 4.8%. GAAP net income is expected to be between $378.0 million and $402.0 million, with diluted EPS in the range of $11.93 to $12.69.

Tailwinds

  • Revenue expected to grow up to 4.8% in 2025
  • Net income projected to remain strong at up to $402.0 million
  • EBITDA forecasted to be between $462.0 million and $492.0 million
  • Strong balance sheet with cash and cash equivalents of $669.4 million
  • Stock repurchase program increased by $600 million

Headwinds

  • Net new business awards declined 13.8% YoY in Q4 2024
  • Backlog conversion rate of 18.3%, indicating slower contract realization
  • Projected revenue growth of up to 4.8% lower than previous year’s 11.8%
  • Potential impact from economic uncertainties and market conditions
  • Guidance does not account for possible share repurchases affecting EPS

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2024

Historical avgQ4 2024

-1.7%

Avg return

Earnings day

-1.6%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.1%

Avg return

30 days after

44%

19 / 43 earnings

Positive

+39.0%

Q3 2022

Best reaction

-31.5%

Q1 2016

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-2.5%-19.4%-14.9%
Q4 2025-15.9%-19.3%-16.3%
Q3 2025+9.0%+6.2%+8.2%
Q2 2025-0.2%+1.5%+7.0%
Q1 2025-2.3%+3.3%+1.4%
Q4 2024-7.5%-4.0%-10.3%
Q3 2024-8.4%-7.3%-8.5%
Q2 2024-15.2%-9.5%-6.1%
Q1 2024+9.4%+6.4%+4.8%
Q4 2023+11.6%+20.0%+25.0%
Q3 2023+18.8%+9.2%+20.8%
Q2 2023+4.6%+3.9%+1.8%
Q1 2023+10.2%+5.9%+7.2%
Q4 2022-2.9%-7.6%-20.4%
Q3 2022+39.0%+41.5%+39.2%
Q2 2022-2.9%+5.0%+3.8%
Q1 2022-12.0%-11.3%-12.2%
Q4 2021-20.6%-18.2%-12.1%
Q3 2021+13.9%+21.1%+14.4%
Q2 2021-6.0%-3.4%-0.8%
Q1 2021-12.8%-11.3%-13.3%
Q4 2020-2.7%-5.3%-2.0%
Q3 2020-6.1%-4.8%+4.4%
Q2 2020+15.5%+12.8%+16.7%
Q1 2020-2.5%-11.9%+9.0%
Q4 2019+2.4%-9.7%-31.7%
Q3 2019+0.8%-0.5%+3.8%
Q2 2019+24.9%+19.9%+27.2%
Q1 2019-4.3%-1.6%-4.7%
Q4 2018-21.3%-21.8%-18.4%
Q3 2018+0.2%+13.9%+21.8%
Q2 2018+28.6%+24.4%+23.4%
Q1 2018+2.3%-0.0%+12.9%
Q4 2017-15.7%-14.3%-5.3%
Q3 2017+6.2%+5.6%-3.7%
Q2 2017+8.0%+15.1%+17.2%
Q1 2016-31.5%-29.1%-12.6%
Q1 2017-29.1%-27.5%-12.3%
Q4 2014-21.3%-20.7%-22.2%
Q2 2016-21.3%-20.7%-22.2%
Q4 2016-19.8%-20.1%-22.3%
Q3 2016+3.8%+8.1%+24.0%
Q4 2015+3.8%+8.1%+24.0%
Q3 2015
Q2 2015
Q1 2015
Q1 2014

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