NASDAQ$MEDP

Medpace Holdings Inc. · Q2 2021 earnings

Q2 2021 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Medpace's revenue increased, driven by net new business awards and backlog conversion.

Medpace Holdings, Inc. reported a strong second quarter in 2021, with revenue increasing by 35.8% to $278.3 million compared to the prior-year period. Net new business awards grew by 52.5% to $387.6 million, resulting in a net book-to-bill ratio of 1.39x. GAAP net income increased to $39.9 million, or $1.06 per diluted share, compared to $24.1 million, or $0.64 per diluted share, in the prior-year period.

  • Revenue for Q2 2021 increased 35.8% to $278.3 million compared to Q2 2020.
  • Net new business awards were $387.6 million in Q2 2021, a 52.5% increase year-over-year.
  • GAAP net income for Q2 2021 was $39.9 million, or $1.06 per diluted share, compared to $24.1 million, or $0.64 per diluted share, for the comparable prior-year period.
  • Cash and cash equivalents were $339.0 million as of June 30, 2021, and the company generated $62.8 million in cash flow from operating activities during the second quarter of 2021.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$278M

Previous: $205M+35.8%
EPS (adj)

$1.06

Previous: $0.64+65.6%
Net New Business Awards

$388M

Previous: $254M+52.5%
Capital Expenditures

-$12.5M

Previous: -$14.9M+15.9%
Free Cash Flow

$27.4M

Previous: $9.22M+197.4%
Net Income

$39.9M

Previous: $24.1M+65.7%
Operating Income

$42.4M

Previous: $30.1M+40.9%
Gross Profit

-$204M

Previous: -$148M-37.3%
Cash & Equivalents

$339M

Previous: $161M+110.7%
Total Assets

$1.47B

Previous: $1.22B+20.3%
Stock-Based Comp

$3.57M

Previous: $2.62M+36.5%

Revenue & EPS history

Medpace · Revenue · Quarterly

$278M

Q2 2021+35.8%vs Q2 2020
Beat estimate in 14 of 16 quarters(88%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

The Company forecasts 2021 revenue in the range of $1.110 billion to $1.150 billion, representing growth of 19.9% to 24.2% over 2020 revenue of $925.9 million. GAAP net income for full year 2021 is forecasted in the range of $162.5 million to $169.5 million. Additionally, full year 2021 EBITDA is expected in the range of $205.0 million to $215.0 million. Based on forecasted 2021 revenue of $1.110 billion to $1.150 billion and GAAP net income of $162.5 million to $169.5 million, diluted earnings per share (GAAP) is forecasted in the range of $4.31 to $4.50.

Tailwinds

  • Revenue is forecasted between $1.110 billion and $1.150 billion.
  • Revenue growth of 19.9% to 24.2% over 2020 revenue.
  • GAAP net income is forecasted between $162.5 million and $169.5 million.
  • EBITDA is expected to be in the range of $205.0 million to $215.0 million.
  • Diluted earnings per share (GAAP) is forecasted in the range of $4.31 to $4.50.

Headwinds

  • Guidance assumes a full year 2021 tax rate of 11.0% to 12.0%.
  • Guidance does not reflect the potential impact of any share repurchases the Company may make pursuant to the share repurchase program after June 30, 2021.
  • Potential loss, delay or non-renewal of contracts.
  • Failure to convert backlog to revenue.
  • Risks related to disruptions due to pandemics.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q2 2021

Historical avgQ2 2021

-1.7%

Avg return

Earnings day

-1.6%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.1%

Avg return

30 days after

44%

19 / 43 earnings

Positive

+39.0%

Q3 2022

Best reaction

-31.5%

Q1 2016

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-2.5%-19.4%-14.9%
Q4 2025-15.9%-19.3%-16.3%
Q3 2025+9.0%+6.2%+8.2%
Q2 2025-0.2%+1.5%+7.0%
Q1 2025-2.3%+3.3%+1.4%
Q4 2024-7.5%-4.0%-10.3%
Q3 2024-8.4%-7.3%-8.5%
Q2 2024-15.2%-9.5%-6.1%
Q1 2024+9.4%+6.4%+4.8%
Q4 2023+11.6%+20.0%+25.0%
Q3 2023+18.8%+9.2%+20.8%
Q2 2023+4.6%+3.9%+1.8%
Q1 2023+10.2%+5.9%+7.2%
Q4 2022-2.9%-7.6%-20.4%
Q3 2022+39.0%+41.5%+39.2%
Q2 2022-2.9%+5.0%+3.8%
Q1 2022-12.0%-11.3%-12.2%
Q4 2021-20.6%-18.2%-12.1%
Q3 2021+13.9%+21.1%+14.4%
Q2 2021-6.0%-3.4%-0.8%
Q1 2021-12.8%-11.3%-13.3%
Q4 2020-2.7%-5.3%-2.0%
Q3 2020-6.1%-4.8%+4.4%
Q2 2020+15.5%+12.8%+16.7%
Q1 2020-2.5%-11.9%+9.0%
Q4 2019+2.4%-9.7%-31.7%
Q3 2019+0.8%-0.5%+3.8%
Q2 2019+24.9%+19.9%+27.2%
Q1 2019-4.3%-1.6%-4.7%
Q4 2018-21.3%-21.8%-18.4%
Q3 2018+0.2%+13.9%+21.8%
Q2 2018+28.6%+24.4%+23.4%
Q1 2018+2.3%-0.0%+12.9%
Q4 2017-15.7%-14.3%-5.3%
Q3 2017+6.2%+5.6%-3.7%
Q2 2017+8.0%+15.1%+17.2%
Q1 2016-31.5%-29.1%-12.6%
Q1 2017-29.1%-27.5%-12.3%
Q4 2014-21.3%-20.7%-22.2%
Q2 2016-21.3%-20.7%-22.2%
Q4 2016-19.8%-20.1%-22.3%
Q3 2016+3.8%+8.1%+24.0%
Q4 2015+3.8%+8.1%+24.0%
Q3 2015
Q2 2015
Q1 2015
Q1 2014

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