NASDAQ$MEDP

Medpace Holdings Inc. · Q4 2023 earnings

Q4 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Medpace reported an increase in revenue and net new business awards for Q4 2023.

Medpace Holdings, Inc. reported a strong fourth quarter in 2023, with a 26.5% increase in revenue to $498.4 million and a 26.7% increase in net new business awards to $614.7 million. GAAP net income increased to $78.3 million, or $2.46 per diluted share. The company's backlog as of December 31, 2023, was $2,813.0 million, representing a 20.2% increase.

  • Revenue for Q4 2023 increased by 26.5% to $498.4 million compared to the prior year.
  • Net new business awards in Q4 2023 were $614.7 million, a 26.7% increase year-over-year, resulting in a net book-to-bill ratio of 1.23x.
  • GAAP net income for Q4 2023 was $78.3 million, or $2.46 per diluted share, compared to $68.7 million, or $2.12 per diluted share, in the prior year.
  • EBITDA for Q4 2023 increased by 19.2% to $95.8 million, representing 19.2% of revenue.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$498M

Previous: $394M+26.5%
EPS (adj)

$2.46

Previous: $2.12+16.0%
Net New Business Awards

$615M

Previous: $485M+26.7%
Capital Expenditures

-$9.99M

Previous: $9.24M-208.0%
Net Income

$78.3M

Previous: $68.7M+14.0%
Operating Income

$87.3M

Previous: $76.4M+14.2%
Gross Profit

$137M

Previous: $116M+18.2%
Stock-Based Comp

$5.17M

Previous: $5.59M-7.7%

Revenue & EPS history

Medpace · Revenue · Quarterly

$498M

Q4 2023+26.5%vs Q4 2022
Beat estimate in 12 of 15 quarters(80%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

The Company forecasts 2024 revenue in the range of $2.150 billion to $2.200 billion, representing growth of 14.0% to 16.7% over 2023 revenue of $1.886 billion. GAAP net income for full year 2024 is forecasted in the range of $326.0 million to $348.0 million. Additionally, full year 2024 EBITDA is expected in the range of $400.0 million to $430.0 million. Based on forecasted 2024 revenue of $2.150 billion to $2.200 billion and GAAP net income of $326.0 million to $348.0 million, diluted earnings per share (GAAP) is forecasted in the range of $10.18 to $10.87.

Tailwinds

  • Revenue growth of 14.0% to 16.7% is expected over 2023 revenue.
  • Full year 2024 revenue is forecasted in the range of $2.150 billion to $2.200 billion.
  • GAAP net income for full year 2024 is forecasted in the range of $326.0 million to $348.0 million.
  • Full year 2024 EBITDA is expected in the range of $400.0 million to $430.0 million.
  • Diluted earnings per share (GAAP) is forecasted in the range of $10.18 to $10.87.

Headwinds

  • Guidance assumes a full year 2024 tax rate of 16.0% to 17.0%.
  • Guidance assumes interest income of $18.4 million.
  • Guidance assumes 32.0 million diluted shares outstanding.
  • Guidance does not include the potential impact of any share repurchases the Company may make pursuant to the share repurchase program after December 31, 2023.
  • Unfavorable economic conditions, including conditions caused by the uncertain international economic environment and current and future international conflicts

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2023

Historical avgQ4 2023

-1.7%

Avg return

Earnings day

-1.6%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.1%

Avg return

30 days after

44%

19 / 43 earnings

Positive

+39.0%

Q3 2022

Best reaction

-31.5%

Q1 2016

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-2.5%-19.4%-14.9%
Q4 2025-15.9%-19.3%-16.3%
Q3 2025+9.0%+6.2%+8.2%
Q2 2025-0.2%+1.5%+7.0%
Q1 2025-2.3%+3.3%+1.4%
Q4 2024-7.5%-4.0%-10.3%
Q3 2024-8.4%-7.3%-8.5%
Q2 2024-15.2%-9.5%-6.1%
Q1 2024+9.4%+6.4%+4.8%
Q4 2023+11.6%+20.0%+25.0%
Q3 2023+18.8%+9.2%+20.8%
Q2 2023+4.6%+3.9%+1.8%
Q1 2023+10.2%+5.9%+7.2%
Q4 2022-2.9%-7.6%-20.4%
Q3 2022+39.0%+41.5%+39.2%
Q2 2022-2.9%+5.0%+3.8%
Q1 2022-12.0%-11.3%-12.2%
Q4 2021-20.6%-18.2%-12.1%
Q3 2021+13.9%+21.1%+14.4%
Q2 2021-6.0%-3.4%-0.8%
Q1 2021-12.8%-11.3%-13.3%
Q4 2020-2.7%-5.3%-2.0%
Q3 2020-6.1%-4.8%+4.4%
Q2 2020+15.5%+12.8%+16.7%
Q1 2020-2.5%-11.9%+9.0%
Q4 2019+2.4%-9.7%-31.7%
Q3 2019+0.8%-0.5%+3.8%
Q2 2019+24.9%+19.9%+27.2%
Q1 2019-4.3%-1.6%-4.7%
Q4 2018-21.3%-21.8%-18.4%
Q3 2018+0.2%+13.9%+21.8%
Q2 2018+28.6%+24.4%+23.4%
Q1 2018+2.3%-0.0%+12.9%
Q4 2017-15.7%-14.3%-5.3%
Q3 2017+6.2%+5.6%-3.7%
Q2 2017+8.0%+15.1%+17.2%
Q1 2016-31.5%-29.1%-12.6%
Q1 2017-29.1%-27.5%-12.3%
Q4 2014-21.3%-20.7%-22.2%
Q2 2016-21.3%-20.7%-22.2%
Q4 2016-19.8%-20.1%-22.3%
Q3 2016+3.8%+8.1%+24.0%
Q4 2015+3.8%+8.1%+24.0%
Q3 2015
Q2 2015
Q1 2015
Q1 2014

Discussion

Share your read of this quarter. Sign-in carries your eToro identity.

Join the conversation

Sign in with eToro to post your read of this quarter and vote on others'.

Sign in with eToro