NASDAQ$MEDP

Medpace Holdings Inc. · Q4 2019 earnings

Q4 2019 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Medpace reported an increase in revenue and net new business awards for Q4 2019.

Medpace Holdings, Inc. announced financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2019. Revenue for the quarter increased by 19.7% to $229.9 million, and net new business awards increased by 21.6% to $281.1 million.

  • Revenue increased 19.7% to $229.9 million compared to the prior-year period.
  • Net new business awards increased 21.6% to $281.1 million compared to the prior-year period.
  • GAAP net income was $29.8 million, or $0.78 per diluted share, versus $22.8 million, or $0.61 per diluted share, for the comparable prior-year period.
  • Adjusted Net Income was $32.2 million, or $0.85 per diluted share, for the fourth quarter of 2019, an increase of 14.5% from the comparable prior-year period.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$230M

Previous: $192M+19.7%
EPS (adj)

$0.85

Previous: $0.76+11.8%
Net New Business Awards

$281M

Previous: $231M+21.6%
Capital Expenditures

$5.76M

Previous: $3.45M+67.0%
Free Cash Flow

$51.2M

Previous: $36M+42.2%
Net Income

$29.8M

Previous: $22.7M+31.4%
Operating Income

$36.1M

Previous: $30.7M+17.8%
Gross Profit

$62.7M

Previous: $61M+2.8%
Cash & Equivalents

$132M

Previous: $23.3M+466.8%
Total Assets

$1.14B

Previous: $968M+18.1%
Stock-Based Comp

$2.71M

Previous: $2.11M+28.1%

Revenue & EPS history

Medpace · Revenue · Quarterly

$230M

Q4 2019+19.7%vs Q4 2018
Beat estimate in 12 of 16 quarters(75%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

The Company forecasts 2020 revenue in the range of $975.0 million to $1,005.0 million, representing growth of 13.2% to 16.7% over 2019 revenue of $861.0 million. GAAP net income for full year 2020 is forecasted in the range of $123.4 million to $127.4 million.

Tailwinds

  • Revenue in the range of $975.0 million to $1,005.0 million
  • Growth of 13.2% to 16.7% over 2019 revenue of $861.0 million
  • GAAP net income for full year 2020 is forecasted in the range of $123.4 million to $127.4 million
  • EBITDA is expected in the range of $170.0 million to $178.0 million
  • Diluted earnings per share (GAAP) is forecasted in the range of $3.24 to $3.34

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2019

Historical avgQ4 2019

-1.7%

Avg return

Earnings day

-1.6%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.1%

Avg return

30 days after

44%

19 / 43 earnings

Positive

+39.0%

Q3 2022

Best reaction

-31.5%

Q1 2016

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-2.5%-19.4%-14.9%
Q4 2025-15.9%-19.3%-16.3%
Q3 2025+9.0%+6.2%+8.2%
Q2 2025-0.2%+1.5%+7.0%
Q1 2025-2.3%+3.3%+1.4%
Q4 2024-7.5%-4.0%-10.3%
Q3 2024-8.4%-7.3%-8.5%
Q2 2024-15.2%-9.5%-6.1%
Q1 2024+9.4%+6.4%+4.8%
Q4 2023+11.6%+20.0%+25.0%
Q3 2023+18.8%+9.2%+20.8%
Q2 2023+4.6%+3.9%+1.8%
Q1 2023+10.2%+5.9%+7.2%
Q4 2022-2.9%-7.6%-20.4%
Q3 2022+39.0%+41.5%+39.2%
Q2 2022-2.9%+5.0%+3.8%
Q1 2022-12.0%-11.3%-12.2%
Q4 2021-20.6%-18.2%-12.1%
Q3 2021+13.9%+21.1%+14.4%
Q2 2021-6.0%-3.4%-0.8%
Q1 2021-12.8%-11.3%-13.3%
Q4 2020-2.7%-5.3%-2.0%
Q3 2020-6.1%-4.8%+4.4%
Q2 2020+15.5%+12.8%+16.7%
Q1 2020-2.5%-11.9%+9.0%
Q4 2019+2.4%-9.7%-31.7%
Q3 2019+0.8%-0.5%+3.8%
Q2 2019+24.9%+19.9%+27.2%
Q1 2019-4.3%-1.6%-4.7%
Q4 2018-21.3%-21.8%-18.4%
Q3 2018+0.2%+13.9%+21.8%
Q2 2018+28.6%+24.4%+23.4%
Q1 2018+2.3%-0.0%+12.9%
Q4 2017-15.7%-14.3%-5.3%
Q3 2017+6.2%+5.6%-3.7%
Q2 2017+8.0%+15.1%+17.2%
Q1 2016-31.5%-29.1%-12.6%
Q1 2017-29.1%-27.5%-12.3%
Q4 2014-21.3%-20.7%-22.2%
Q2 2016-21.3%-20.7%-22.2%
Q4 2016-19.8%-20.1%-22.3%
Q3 2016+3.8%+8.1%+24.0%
Q4 2015+3.8%+8.1%+24.0%
Q3 2015
Q2 2015
Q1 2015
Q1 2014

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