NASDAQ$MEDP

Medpace Holdings Inc. · Q4 2020 earnings

Q4 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Medpace reported Q4 2020 results with revenue increasing by 13.0% and net new business awards increasing by 27.6%.

Medpace Holdings, Inc. announced financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2020. Revenue for the quarter increased by 13.0% to $259.7 million, and net new business awards increased by 27.6% to $358.6 million, resulting in a net book-to-bill ratio of 1.38x. GAAP net income for the quarter was $50.9 million, or $1.35 per diluted share. The company forecasts 2021 revenue in the range of $1.075 billion to $1.175 billion.

  • Revenue of $259.7 million increased 13.0% from the prior-year period, representing a backlog conversion rate of 18.1%.
  • Net new business awards were $358.6 million, an increase of 27.6% from the comparable prior-year period, resulting in a net book-to-bill ratio of 1.38x.
  • GAAP net income was $50.9 million, or $1.35 per diluted share, versus GAAP net income of $29.8 million, or $0.78 per diluted share, for the comparable prior-year period.
  • EBITDA was $60.2 million, an increase of 46.3% from the comparable prior-year period, resulting in an EBITDA margin of 23.2%.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$260M

Previous: $230M+13.0%
EPS (adj)

$1.35

Previous: $0.85+58.8%
Net New Business Awards

$359M

Previous: $281M+27.6%
Capital Expenditures

$7.79M

Previous: $5.76M+35.2%
Free Cash Flow

$97.7M

Previous: $51.2M+90.9%
Net Income

$50.9M

Previous: $29.8M+70.8%
Operating Income

$55M

Previous: $36.1M+52.2%
Gross Profit

$82.9M

Previous: $62.7M+32.1%
Cash & Equivalents

$278M

Previous: $132M+110.6%
Total Assets

$1.39B

Previous: $1.14B+21.7%
Stock-Based Comp

$2.96M

Previous: $2.71M+9.4%

Revenue & EPS history

Medpace · Revenue · Quarterly

$260M

Q4 2020+13%vs Q4 2019
Beat estimate in 14 of 16 quarters(88%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

The Company forecasts 2021 revenue in the range of $1.075 billion to $1.175 billion, representing growth of 16.1% to 26.9% over 2020 revenue of $925.9 million. GAAP net income for full year 2021 is forecasted in the range of $154.5 million to $170.5 million. Additionally, full year 2021 EBITDA is expected in the range of $205.0 million to $225.0 million. Based on forecasted 2021 revenue of $1.075 billion to $1.175 billion and GAAP net income of $154.5 million to $170.5 million, diluted earnings per share (GAAP) is forecasted in the range of $4.08 to $4.50.

Tailwinds

  • Forecasts 2021 revenue in the range of $1.075 billion to $1.175 billion, representing growth of 16.1% to 26.9% over 2020 revenue of $925.9 million.
  • GAAP net income for full year 2021 is forecasted in the range of $154.5 million to $170.5 million.
  • Full year 2021 EBITDA is expected in the range of $205.0 million to $225.0 million.
  • Diluted earnings per share (GAAP) is forecasted in the range of $4.08 to $4.50.
  • This guidance assumes a full year 2021 tax rate of 15.0% to 16.0% and does not reflect the potential impact of any share repurchases the Company may make pursuant to the share repurchase program.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2020

Historical avgQ4 2020

-1.7%

Avg return

Earnings day

-1.6%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.1%

Avg return

30 days after

44%

19 / 43 earnings

Positive

+39.0%

Q3 2022

Best reaction

-31.5%

Q1 2016

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-2.5%-19.4%-14.9%
Q4 2025-15.9%-19.3%-16.3%
Q3 2025+9.0%+6.2%+8.2%
Q2 2025-0.2%+1.5%+7.0%
Q1 2025-2.3%+3.3%+1.4%
Q4 2024-7.5%-4.0%-10.3%
Q3 2024-8.4%-7.3%-8.5%
Q2 2024-15.2%-9.5%-6.1%
Q1 2024+9.4%+6.4%+4.8%
Q4 2023+11.6%+20.0%+25.0%
Q3 2023+18.8%+9.2%+20.8%
Q2 2023+4.6%+3.9%+1.8%
Q1 2023+10.2%+5.9%+7.2%
Q4 2022-2.9%-7.6%-20.4%
Q3 2022+39.0%+41.5%+39.2%
Q2 2022-2.9%+5.0%+3.8%
Q1 2022-12.0%-11.3%-12.2%
Q4 2021-20.6%-18.2%-12.1%
Q3 2021+13.9%+21.1%+14.4%
Q2 2021-6.0%-3.4%-0.8%
Q1 2021-12.8%-11.3%-13.3%
Q4 2020-2.7%-5.3%-2.0%
Q3 2020-6.1%-4.8%+4.4%
Q2 2020+15.5%+12.8%+16.7%
Q1 2020-2.5%-11.9%+9.0%
Q4 2019+2.4%-9.7%-31.7%
Q3 2019+0.8%-0.5%+3.8%
Q2 2019+24.9%+19.9%+27.2%
Q1 2019-4.3%-1.6%-4.7%
Q4 2018-21.3%-21.8%-18.4%
Q3 2018+0.2%+13.9%+21.8%
Q2 2018+28.6%+24.4%+23.4%
Q1 2018+2.3%-0.0%+12.9%
Q4 2017-15.7%-14.3%-5.3%
Q3 2017+6.2%+5.6%-3.7%
Q2 2017+8.0%+15.1%+17.2%
Q1 2016-31.5%-29.1%-12.6%
Q1 2017-29.1%-27.5%-12.3%
Q4 2014-21.3%-20.7%-22.2%
Q2 2016-21.3%-20.7%-22.2%
Q4 2016-19.8%-20.1%-22.3%
Q3 2016+3.8%+8.1%+24.0%
Q4 2015+3.8%+8.1%+24.0%
Q3 2015
Q2 2015
Q1 2015
Q1 2014

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