NASDAQ$ALGT

Allegiant Travel Company · Q4 2022 earnings

Q4 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Allegiant reported strong Q4 2022 earnings, driven by record TRASM and better than expected cost performance.

Allegiant Travel Company reported a net income of $52.5 million, with a diluted earnings per share of $2.87 for the fourth quarter of 2022. Total operating revenue increased by 32.6% compared to 2019, driven by a record TRASM of 14.03 cents. The company's adjusted operating margin was nearly 16% for the quarter.

  • Q4 2022 GAAP diluted earnings per share was $2.87.
  • Q4 2022 diluted earnings per share, excluding recognition bonus and Sunseeker special charges, was $3.17.
  • Total operating revenue increased by 32.6% year over three-year.
  • TRASM reached 14.03 cents, the highest quarterly TRASM in company history.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$612M

Previous: $497M+23.1%
EPS (adj)

$3.17

Previous: $1.18+168.6%
Load Factor

85.3%

Previous: 77.1%+10.6%
Capital Expenditures

$130M

Previous: $89M+45.7%
Free Cash Flow

-$48.5M

Previous: $75.6M-164.2%
Net Income

$52.5M

Previous: $10.7M+390.5%
Operating Income

$89.2M

Previous: $33.3M+167.6%
Gross Profit

$144M

Previous: $94.1M+53.0%
Cash & Equivalents

$230M

Previous: $366M-37.1%
Total Assets

$4.51B

Previous: $3.99B+13.0%
Stock-Based Comp

$15.2M

Previous: $16.1M-5.8%

Revenue & EPS history

Allegiant · Revenue · Quarterly

$612M

Q4 2022+23.1%vs Q4 2021
Beat estimate in 9 of 15 quarters(60%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Allegiant · $611M total across 3 segments · Q4 2022

  • Passenger Revenue
    $565M+24.3%
  • Third Party Products
    $23.6M-7.0%
  • Fixed Fee Contracts
    $22.8M+32.0%

Forward guidance

Full-year 2023 guidance provided, subject to revision.

Tailwinds

  • System ASMs - year over year change: 2 to 6%
  • Scheduled service ASMs - year over year change: 2 to 6%
  • Earnings per share - airline only: $5.00 - $9.00
  • Interest income (millions): $30 - $40
  • Capitalized interest (1) (millions):($40) to ($50)

Headwinds

  • Fuel cost per gallon: $3.60
  • Available seat miles (ASMs)/gallon: ~84
  • Depreciation expense (millions): $230 to $240
  • Interest expense (millions): $150 to $160
  • Airline CAPEX Aircraft, engines, induction costs, and pre-delivery deposits (millions) (3): $550 to $570

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2022

Historical avgQ4 2022

-0.5%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.7%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.2%

Avg return

30 days after

45%

29 / 65 earnings

Positive

+18.9%

Q4 2022

Best reaction

-15.4%

Q2 2018

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+5.6%+5.9%+21.0%
Q4 2025-0.4%+14.5%-20.4%
Q3 2025-2.1%-7.0%+21.7%
Q1 2025+3.7%+20.1%+17.9%
Q4 2024-15.3%-10.9%-38.7%
Q3 2024+7.1%+8.7%+34.8%
Q2 2024-9.2%-23.4%-23.4%
Q1 2024-5.7%-5.0%-5.5%
Q4 2023-0.8%-0.6%-5.5%
Q3 2023-1.7%-6.8%+8.2%
Q2 2023-5.3%-9.1%-26.8%
Q1 2023+5.3%+7.2%+7.3%
Q4 2022+18.9%+12.4%+21.3%
Q3 2022-0.7%+3.4%+8.6%
Q2 2022+1.6%-1.5%-15.4%
Q1 2022-0.4%-9.0%-6.0%
Q4 2021-3.1%-4.3%-13.2%
Q3 2021-3.2%-1.2%-3.4%
Q2 2021+2.0%-1.9%-0.6%
Q1 2021-0.7%-4.6%-8.3%
Q4 2020+16.9%+13.1%+30.0%
Q3 2020+4.0%-0.7%+34.3%
Q2 2020-3.1%-3.2%+15.6%
Q1 2020+5.2%+2.3%+44.9%
Q4 2019-0.6%-2.9%-20.6%
Q3 2019+8.8%+9.8%+10.8%
Q2 2019+2.9%+3.0%-4.7%
Q1 2019+5.9%+9.1%+7.4%
Q4 2018+4.0%+11.2%+5.0%
Q3 2018-8.4%-4.9%+1.7%
Q2 2018-15.4%-10.8%-3.0%
Q1 2018+9.5%+11.6%+8.5%
Q4 2017+4.6%-0.6%+3.1%
Q3 2017+0.2%-1.9%-2.2%
Q2 2017-8.7%-10.5%-17.5%
Q1 2017-9.3%-11.9%-11.2%
Q4 2016-0.3%-6.2%-1.4%
Q3 2016-13.0%-10.4%+9.6%
Q2 2016-4.9%-9.0%+1.1%
Q1 2016-2.6%
Q4 2015-5.8%
Q3 2015-7.6%
Q2 2015+2.2%
Q1 2015-1.1%
Q4 2014-0.9%
Q3 2014+0.7%
Q2 2014-5.3%
Q1 2014+0.7%
Q4 2013-11.2%
Q3 2013-1.5%
Q2 2013-13.1%
Q1 2013-2.4%
Q3 2012+1.3%
Q2 2012-3.0%
Q1 2011+2.0%
Q1 2012-1.2%
Q4 2009+3.1%
Q4 2011+3.1%
Q4 2012+2.4%
Q3 2010-3.4%
Q3 2011-3.4%
Q4 2010+4.8%
Q2 2010+4.8%
Q2 2011+4.8%
Q1 2010+3.1%

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