NASDAQ$ALGT

Allegiant Travel Company · Q4 2019 earnings

Q4 2019 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Allegiant reported its 68th consecutive profitable quarter, with significant growth in operating margin and diluted earnings per share.

Allegiant Travel Company reported strong Q4 2019 financial results, marked by a 45.3% increase in diluted earnings per share to $3.72 and a 46.9% increase in operating income to $92.7 million. The airline's success was attributed to its team members and the transition to an all-Airbus fleet, which has improved operational efficiency and profitability.

  • Diluted earnings per share increased by 45.3% to $3.72.
  • Operating income increased by 46.9% to $92.7 million.
  • Airline operating margin increased to 21.3%, up 4.7 points year over year.
  • TRASM increased 2.5 percent despite capacity growth of 8.3 percent.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$461M

Previous: $412M+11.9%
EPS (adj)

$3.72

Previous: $2.56+45.3%
Average Fuel Cost per Gallon

$2.18

Previous: $2.34-6.8%
Load Factor

82.1%

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

$157M

Previous: $60.8M+157.8%
Free Cash Flow

-$35.9M

Previous: $5.71M-727.8%
Net Income

$60.5M

Previous: $41.4M+46.0%
Operating Income

$92.7M

Previous: $63.1M+46.9%
Gross Profit

$140M

Previous: $108M+29.2%
Cash & Equivalents

$122M

Previous: $81.5M+49.5%
Total Assets

$3.01B

Previous: $2.5B+20.5%
Stock-Based Comp

$4.66M

Previous: $4.06M+15.0%

Revenue & EPS history

Allegiant · Revenue · Quarterly

$461M

Q4 2019+11.9%vs Q4 2018
Beat estimate in 9 of 16 quarters(56%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Allegiant · $456M total across 3 segments · Q4 2019

  • Passenger Revenue
    $417M
  • Fixed Fee Contracts
    $22.2M
  • Third Party Products
    $16.5M+17.4%

Forward guidance

Full year 2020 guidance is provided with fuel cost per gallon expected to be $2.15 and earnings per share between $16.50 and $19.00.

Tailwinds

  • Fuel cost per gallon: $2.15
  • Available seat miles (ASMs) / gallon: 82.5 to 83.5
  • Interest expense: $75 to $80 million
  • Capitalized interest: $16 to $19 million
  • Share count: 16.0 million

Headwinds

  • System ASMs - year over year change: 10 to 12%
  • Scheduled service ASMs - year over year change: 10 to 12%
  • Depreciation expense: $180 to $190 million
  • Airline operating CASM excluding fuel - year over year change: (2) to 0%
  • Airline CAPEX: $275 to $295 million

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2019

Historical avgQ4 2019

-0.5%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.7%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.2%

Avg return

30 days after

45%

29 / 65 earnings

Positive

+18.9%

Q4 2022

Best reaction

-15.4%

Q2 2018

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+5.6%+5.9%+21.0%
Q4 2025-0.4%+14.5%-20.4%
Q3 2025-2.1%-7.0%+21.7%
Q1 2025+3.7%+20.1%+17.9%
Q4 2024-15.3%-10.9%-38.7%
Q3 2024+7.1%+8.7%+34.8%
Q2 2024-9.2%-23.4%-23.4%
Q1 2024-5.7%-5.0%-5.5%
Q4 2023-0.8%-0.6%-5.5%
Q3 2023-1.7%-6.8%+8.2%
Q2 2023-5.3%-9.1%-26.8%
Q1 2023+5.3%+7.2%+7.3%
Q4 2022+18.9%+12.4%+21.3%
Q3 2022-0.7%+3.4%+8.6%
Q2 2022+1.6%-1.5%-15.4%
Q1 2022-0.4%-9.0%-6.0%
Q4 2021-3.1%-4.3%-13.2%
Q3 2021-3.2%-1.2%-3.4%
Q2 2021+2.0%-1.9%-0.6%
Q1 2021-0.7%-4.6%-8.3%
Q4 2020+16.9%+13.1%+30.0%
Q3 2020+4.0%-0.7%+34.3%
Q2 2020-3.1%-3.2%+15.6%
Q1 2020+5.2%+2.3%+44.9%
Q4 2019-0.6%-2.9%-20.6%
Q3 2019+8.8%+9.8%+10.8%
Q2 2019+2.9%+3.0%-4.7%
Q1 2019+5.9%+9.1%+7.4%
Q4 2018+4.0%+11.2%+5.0%
Q3 2018-8.4%-4.9%+1.7%
Q2 2018-15.4%-10.8%-3.0%
Q1 2018+9.5%+11.6%+8.5%
Q4 2017+4.6%-0.6%+3.1%
Q3 2017+0.2%-1.9%-2.2%
Q2 2017-8.7%-10.5%-17.5%
Q1 2017-9.3%-11.9%-11.2%
Q4 2016-0.3%-6.2%-1.4%
Q3 2016-13.0%-10.4%+9.6%
Q2 2016-4.9%-9.0%+1.1%
Q1 2016-2.6%
Q4 2015-5.8%
Q3 2015-7.6%
Q2 2015+2.2%
Q1 2015-1.1%
Q4 2014-0.9%
Q3 2014+0.7%
Q2 2014-5.3%
Q1 2014+0.7%
Q4 2013-11.2%
Q3 2013-1.5%
Q2 2013-13.1%
Q1 2013-2.4%
Q3 2012+1.3%
Q2 2012-3.0%
Q1 2011+2.0%
Q1 2012-1.2%
Q4 2009+3.1%
Q4 2011+3.1%
Q4 2012+2.4%
Q3 2010-3.4%
Q3 2011-3.4%
Q4 2010+4.8%
Q2 2010+4.8%
Q2 2011+4.8%
Q1 2010+3.1%

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