NASDAQ$ALGT

Allegiant Travel Company · Q3 2022 earnings

Q3 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported a GAAP diluted loss per share of $(2.58) and a loss per share, excluding recognition bonus and Hurricane Ian special charge, of $(0.54).

Allegiant Travel Company reported a loss for the third quarter of 2022, with a GAAP diluted loss per share of $(2.58). However, the company saw a total operating revenue increase of more than 28 percent as compared with 2019. Demand continues to outpace 2019, and forward bookings into the upcoming holiday season are tracking at higher loads and significantly higher yields than at this point in 2019.

  • Loss before income tax of $56.2 million, includes a $35 million special charge related to Hurricane Ian damage.
  • Total operating revenue was $560.3 million, up 28.4 percent year over three-year.
  • Load factor of 88.5 percent, a 2.5 percentage point increase from the third quarter of 2019.
  • Acquired 38 thousand new Allways Allegiant World Mastercard holders during the quarter, the strongest third quarter acquisition since the program's inception.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$560M

Previous: $459M+22.0%
EPS (adj)

-$0.54

Previous: $0.66-181.8%
Load Factor

88.5%

Previous: 76.6%+15.5%
Capital Expenditures

-$305M

Previous: -$167M-83.2%
Free Cash Flow

-$351M

Previous: -$127M-176.2%
Net Income

-$46.5M

Previous: $39.3M-218.4%
Operating Income

-$30.9M

Previous: $66.3M-146.6%
Gross Profit

$560M

Previous: $335M+67.0%
Cash & Equivalents

$241M

Previous: $194M+24.2%
Total Assets

$4.41B

Previous: $3.77B+17.1%

Revenue & EPS history

Allegiant · Revenue · Quarterly

$560M

Q3 2022+22%vs Q3 2021
Beat estimate in 9 of 15 quarters(60%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Allegiant · $559M total across 3 segments · Q3 2022

  • Passenger Revenue
    $516M+21.9%
  • Third Party Products
    $27.1M+10.6%
  • Fixed Fee Contracts
    $15.9M+42.9%

Forward guidance

Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, the company tapered capacity a bit as a result of the impacts from Hurricane Ian. They expect scheduled capacity to increase roughly 15 percent year over three-year. Given the strong demand environment coupled with improvements in operations, they expect to expand margins, delivering a profitable fourth quarter.

Tailwinds

  • Strong demand environment
  • Improvements in operations
  • Expect to expand margins
  • Delivering a profitable fourth quarter
  • Total operating revenue - year over three-year change of 26.5% to 28.5%

Headwinds

  • Impacts from Hurricane Ian
  • System ASMs - year over three-year change of ~13.5%
  • Scheduled Service ASMs - year over three-year change of ~15%
  • Operating CASM, excluding fuel - year over three-year change of 13% to 15%
  • Expect a headwind to revenue resulting from Hurricane Ian

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2022

Historical avgQ3 2022

-0.5%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.7%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.2%

Avg return

30 days after

45%

29 / 65 earnings

Positive

+18.9%

Q4 2022

Best reaction

-15.4%

Q2 2018

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+5.6%+5.9%+21.0%
Q4 2025-0.4%+14.5%-20.4%
Q3 2025-2.1%-7.0%+21.7%
Q1 2025+3.7%+20.1%+17.9%
Q4 2024-15.3%-10.9%-38.7%
Q3 2024+7.1%+8.7%+34.8%
Q2 2024-9.2%-23.4%-23.4%
Q1 2024-5.7%-5.0%-5.5%
Q4 2023-0.8%-0.6%-5.5%
Q3 2023-1.7%-6.8%+8.2%
Q2 2023-5.3%-9.1%-26.8%
Q1 2023+5.3%+7.2%+7.3%
Q4 2022+18.9%+12.4%+21.3%
Q3 2022-0.7%+3.4%+8.6%
Q2 2022+1.6%-1.5%-15.4%
Q1 2022-0.4%-9.0%-6.0%
Q4 2021-3.1%-4.3%-13.2%
Q3 2021-3.2%-1.2%-3.4%
Q2 2021+2.0%-1.9%-0.6%
Q1 2021-0.7%-4.6%-8.3%
Q4 2020+16.9%+13.1%+30.0%
Q3 2020+4.0%-0.7%+34.3%
Q2 2020-3.1%-3.2%+15.6%
Q1 2020+5.2%+2.3%+44.9%
Q4 2019-0.6%-2.9%-20.6%
Q3 2019+8.8%+9.8%+10.8%
Q2 2019+2.9%+3.0%-4.7%
Q1 2019+5.9%+9.1%+7.4%
Q4 2018+4.0%+11.2%+5.0%
Q3 2018-8.4%-4.9%+1.7%
Q2 2018-15.4%-10.8%-3.0%
Q1 2018+9.5%+11.6%+8.5%
Q4 2017+4.6%-0.6%+3.1%
Q3 2017+0.2%-1.9%-2.2%
Q2 2017-8.7%-10.5%-17.5%
Q1 2017-9.3%-11.9%-11.2%
Q4 2016-0.3%-6.2%-1.4%
Q3 2016-13.0%-10.4%+9.6%
Q2 2016-4.9%-9.0%+1.1%
Q1 2016-2.6%
Q4 2015-5.8%
Q3 2015-7.6%
Q2 2015+2.2%
Q1 2015-1.1%
Q4 2014-0.9%
Q3 2014+0.7%
Q2 2014-5.3%
Q1 2014+0.7%
Q4 2013-11.2%
Q3 2013-1.5%
Q2 2013-13.1%
Q1 2013-2.4%
Q3 2012+1.3%
Q2 2012-3.0%
Q1 2011+2.0%
Q1 2012-1.2%
Q4 2009+3.1%
Q4 2011+3.1%
Q4 2012+2.4%
Q3 2010-3.4%
Q3 2011-3.4%
Q4 2010+4.8%
Q2 2010+4.8%
Q2 2011+4.8%
Q1 2010+3.1%

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