NASDAQ$ALGT

Allegiant Travel Company · Q1 2021 earnings

Q1 2021 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Allegiant's Q1 2021 earnings were impacted by the pandemic but showed signs of recovery, with restored capacity and improved booking trends.

Allegiant Travel Company reported a GAAP earnings per share of $0.42 for the first quarter of 2021. The company restored capacity to pre-pandemic levels and saw improved booking trends towards the end of the quarter. They anticipate continued revenue growth throughout 2021.

  • GAAP earnings per share of $0.42.
  • Restored capacity to pre-pandemic levels, with scheduled service capacity up 3.1 percent versus first quarter of 2019.
  • Total revenue for the quarter was $279.1 million, up 13.2 percent from the fourth quarter.
  • Expanded the network by adding 50 new routes, three new cities, and nine event-specific routes.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$279M

Previous: $409M-31.8%
EPS (adj)

-$3.58

Previous: $2.05-274.6%
Average Fuel Cost per Gallon

$1.86

Previous: $1.87-0.5%
Load Factor

55.3%

Previous: 73.8%-25.1%
Capital Expenditures

-$69.5M

Previous: -$134M+48.3%
Free Cash Flow

-$62.6M

Previous: -$167M+62.6%
Net Income

$6.87M

Previous: -$33M+120.8%
Operating Income

$24.6M

Previous: -$118M+120.9%
Gross Profit

$192M

Previous: $319M-40.0%
Cash & Equivalents

$302M

Previous: $138M+118.0%
Total Assets

$3.35B

Previous: $3.19B+4.8%

Revenue & EPS history

Allegiant · Revenue · Quarterly

$279M

Q1 2021-31.8%vs Q1 2020
Beat estimate in 9 of 16 quarters(56%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Allegiant · $278M total across 3 segments · Q1 2021

  • Passenger Revenue
    $257M-32.3%
  • Third Party Products
    $13.6M-14.7%
  • Fixed Fee Contracts
    $7.69M-13.8%

Forward guidance

Allegiant expects sequential scheduled service revenue improvement with revenue down just six to ten percent as compared with 2019 levels. Full-year, 2021 capacity should exceed 2019 capacity levels.

Tailwinds

  • System ASMs - year over two-year change between 2.0 to 6.0%
  • Scheduled Service ASMs - year over two-year change between 2.0 to 6.0%
  • Scheduled service revenue - year over two-year change, excluding fixed fee and other revenue down 6 to 10%
  • CAPEX Aircraft, engines and induction costs between $115 million to $125 million
  • Capitalized Airbus deferred heavy maintenance between $50 million to $60 million

Headwinds

  • Other capital expenditures between $40 million to $50 million
  • Interest expense between $65 million to $70 million
  • Recurring principal payments between $170 million to $180 million
  • Second quarter 2021 guidance fuel cost per gallon $1.99
  • Increased full year interest expense guide driven primarily by A320 refinance arrangement and an increase in LIBOR

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2021

Historical avgQ1 2021

-0.5%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.7%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.2%

Avg return

30 days after

45%

29 / 65 earnings

Positive

+18.9%

Q4 2022

Best reaction

-15.4%

Q2 2018

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+5.6%+5.9%+21.0%
Q4 2025-0.4%+14.5%-20.4%
Q3 2025-2.1%-7.0%+21.7%
Q1 2025+3.7%+20.1%+17.9%
Q4 2024-15.3%-10.9%-38.7%
Q3 2024+7.1%+8.7%+34.8%
Q2 2024-9.2%-23.4%-23.4%
Q1 2024-5.7%-5.0%-5.5%
Q4 2023-0.8%-0.6%-5.5%
Q3 2023-1.7%-6.8%+8.2%
Q2 2023-5.3%-9.1%-26.8%
Q1 2023+5.3%+7.2%+7.3%
Q4 2022+18.9%+12.4%+21.3%
Q3 2022-0.7%+3.4%+8.6%
Q2 2022+1.6%-1.5%-15.4%
Q1 2022-0.4%-9.0%-6.0%
Q4 2021-3.1%-4.3%-13.2%
Q3 2021-3.2%-1.2%-3.4%
Q2 2021+2.0%-1.9%-0.6%
Q1 2021-0.7%-4.6%-8.3%
Q4 2020+16.9%+13.1%+30.0%
Q3 2020+4.0%-0.7%+34.3%
Q2 2020-3.1%-3.2%+15.6%
Q1 2020+5.2%+2.3%+44.9%
Q4 2019-0.6%-2.9%-20.6%
Q3 2019+8.8%+9.8%+10.8%
Q2 2019+2.9%+3.0%-4.7%
Q1 2019+5.9%+9.1%+7.4%
Q4 2018+4.0%+11.2%+5.0%
Q3 2018-8.4%-4.9%+1.7%
Q2 2018-15.4%-10.8%-3.0%
Q1 2018+9.5%+11.6%+8.5%
Q4 2017+4.6%-0.6%+3.1%
Q3 2017+0.2%-1.9%-2.2%
Q2 2017-8.7%-10.5%-17.5%
Q1 2017-9.3%-11.9%-11.2%
Q4 2016-0.3%-6.2%-1.4%
Q3 2016-13.0%-10.4%+9.6%
Q2 2016-4.9%-9.0%+1.1%
Q1 2016-2.6%
Q4 2015-5.8%
Q3 2015-7.6%
Q2 2015+2.2%
Q1 2015-1.1%
Q4 2014-0.9%
Q3 2014+0.7%
Q2 2014-5.3%
Q1 2014+0.7%
Q4 2013-11.2%
Q3 2013-1.5%
Q2 2013-13.1%
Q1 2013-2.4%
Q3 2012+1.3%
Q2 2012-3.0%
Q1 2011+2.0%
Q1 2012-1.2%
Q4 2009+3.1%
Q4 2011+3.1%
Q4 2012+2.4%
Q3 2010-3.4%
Q3 2011-3.4%
Q4 2010+4.8%
Q2 2010+4.8%
Q2 2011+4.8%
Q1 2010+3.1%

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