NASDAQ$AAON

Aaon Inc · Q4 2024 earnings

Q4 2024 earnings · · Before market open · Investor relations

Briefing

AAON reported a decline in revenue and earnings in Q4 2024 due to industry challenges.

AAON reported a 2.9% decline in revenue for Q4 2024, with total sales reaching $297.7 million. The company faced headwinds from a regulated refrigerant transition and weaker nonresidential construction activity, impacting sales in the AAON Oklahoma segment. However, strong demand in the BASX brand for data center cooling solutions helped offset some losses. Net income dropped 47.5% year-over-year to $24.7 million, while EPS decreased to $0.30 from $0.56 in Q4 2023.

  • Q4 2024 revenue decreased by 2.9% year-over-year to $297.7 million.
  • Net income fell by 47.5% to $24.7 million due to higher costs and lower sales.
  • Earnings per diluted share dropped 46.4% to $0.30 from $0.56 in Q4 2023.
  • Backlog increased 70.0% year-over-year, signaling strong future demand.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$298M

Previous: $307M-2.9%
EPS (adj)

$0.30

Previous: $0.56-46.4%
Total Backlog

$867M

Previous: $510M+70.0%
Dividends Per Share

$0.08

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

$196M

No prior period
Net Income

$24.7M

Previous: $47M-47.5%
Operating Income

$29.4M

Previous: $63.9M-53.9%
Gross Profit

$77.6M

Previous: $112M-30.5%

Revenue & EPS history

Aaon · Revenue · Quarterly

$298M

Q4 2024-2.9%vs Q4 2023
Beat estimate in 13 of 15 quarters(87%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

AAON expects revenue and earnings growth in 2025, driven by strong backlog conversion and improved market conditions.

Tailwinds

  • Strong demand for BASX-branded data center cooling solutions.
  • Backlog increased 70.0% year-over-year, supporting future revenue growth.
  • Expect refrigerant transition headwinds to subside in Q2 2025.
  • New Memphis facility expected to enhance production capacity.
  • Margins expected to improve as volume growth accelerates.

Headwinds

  • Macroeconomic conditions remain uncertain, impacting nonresidential construction.
  • Margins will be under pressure in early 2025 due to lower volumes.
  • Higher costs associated with production ramp-up in Memphis facility.
  • Refrigerant transition impacts likely to persist through Q1 2025.
  • Market competition remains a challenge in the HVAC industry.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2024

Historical avgQ4 2024

+0.9%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.5%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.4%

Avg return

30 days after

58%

38 / 65 earnings

Positive

+31.4%

Q1 2026

Best reaction

-22.9%

Q4 2024

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+31.4%+35.9%+34.9%
Q4 2025+3.5%-12.7%-17.3%
Q3 2025+5.4%+2.0%-12.5%
Q1 2025+5.7%+6.8%+5.5%
Q4 2024-22.9%-26.2%-23.5%
Q3 2024+15.0%+14.5%+14.1%
Q2 2024-3.1%-2.6%+7.9%
Q1 2024-17.0%-16.9%-20.6%
Q4 2023-2.1%-3.9%+2.7%
Q3 2023+1.6%+1.5%+10.5%
Q2 2023-8.0%-9.5%-7.6%
Q1 2023+5.9%-0.9%-6.1%
Q4 2022+11.7%+15.3%+16.3%
Q3 2022+13.6%+18.6%+18.8%
Q2 2022-2.9%+0.1%-6.4%
Q1 2022+4.1%+6.2%+10.7%
Q4 2021-2.3%-7.2%-4.5%
Q3 2021+1.7%+5.5%+9.5%
Q2 2021+8.3%+13.0%+8.3%
Q1 2021+4.0%+2.4%+0.9%
Q4 2020-1.0%-3.8%-7.1%
Q3 2020+6.5%+9.9%+4.7%
Q2 2020-2.3%+0.1%-5.9%
Q1 2020+4.3%+1.3%+24.4%
Q4 2019+3.6%+5.8%-12.9%
Q3 2019-1.1%+0.1%-0.6%
Q2 2019-8.3%-11.5%-5.6%
Q1 2019+3.9%-5.0%-9.0%
Q4 2018-0.7%+2.0%+11.1%
Q3 2018+13.1%+21.4%+10.0%
Q2 2018+2.1%+3.3%+7.7%
Q1 2018-12.3%-9.8%-8.1%
Q4 2017+2.8%-1.0%+9.1%
Q3 2017+0.2%+0.6%+5.7%
Q2 2017+4.3%+3.4%-3.0%
Q1 2017-2.5%-0.5%+0.3%
Q4 2016+0.3%-2.2%+5.4%
Q3 2016-3.5%-0.7%+13.8%
Q2 2016+1.3%+3.5%+10.2%
Q1 2016+9.2%
Q4 2015+11.2%
Q3 2015+11.0%
Q2 2015+3.3%
Q1 2015-5.7%
Q4 2014-2.1%
Q3 2014+2.7%
Q2 2014-1.6%
Q1 2014+6.4%
Q4 2013-5.5%
Q3 2013-8.8%
Q2 2013+5.9%
Q1 2013+5.3%
Q4 2012+2.5%
Q3 2012-4.4%
Q2 2012+4.1%
Q1 2012+0.4%
Q1 2011+0.4%
Q4 2009+5.5%
Q4 2011+5.5%
Q3 2010-2.1%
Q3 2011-2.1%
Q2 2010-14.8%
Q2 2011-14.8%
Q4 2010-14.8%
Q1 2010-4.7%

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