NASDAQ$AAON

Aaon Inc · Q4 2021 earnings

Q4 2021 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

AAON reported record fourth quarter revenue but gross profit and earnings were down due to supply chain issues and inflation.

AAON reported record fourth quarter revenue of $136.3 million, up 16.8% from the prior-year quarter. However, net income decreased to $6.2 million and earnings per diluted share decreased to $0.11, down year over year 68.6%.

  • Record fourth quarter revenue of $136.3 million, up 16.8% year over year.
  • Gross profit declined 21.7% to $26.5 million due to supply chain issues and inflation.
  • Net income decreased 67.3% to $6.2 million, with earnings per diluted share down 68.6% to $0.11.
  • Backlog increased 249.6% year over year to $260.2 million.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$136M

Previous: $117M+16.8%
EPS (adj)

$0.12

Previous: $0.23-47.8%
Total Backlog

$260M

Previous: $74.4M+249.7%
Net Income

$6.19M

Previous: $18.9M-67.3%
Operating Income

$5.44M

Previous: $25.7M-78.8%
Gross Profit

$26.5M

Previous: $33.9M-21.7%
Cash & Equivalents

$2.86M

Previous: $79M-96.4%
Total Assets

$650M

Previous: $449M+44.8%
Stock-Based Comp

$3.03M

Previous: $2.8M+8.3%

Revenue & EPS history

Aaon · Revenue · Quarterly

$136M

Q4 2021+16.8%vs Q4 2020
Beat estimate in 8 of 16 quarters(50%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

AAON anticipates production and margins to improve significantly through the first half of 2022, with the worst of the supply chain constraints believed to be behind them. The company expects to benefit from an increased focus on decarbonization, electrification, energy efficiency, indoor air quality and cloud-based infrastructure.

Tailwinds

  • Worst of supply chain constraints are behind them.
  • December was a solid month as far as production and gross profit.
  • Month-to-month improvement in January and February.
  • Margin profile of backlog is the highest it has been in about nine months.
  • Legacy business and BasX both have robust backlogs with paths for significant margin improvement in 2022 and beyond.

Headwinds

  • Sales and earnings results were disappointing.
  • Supply chain constraints and material inflation.
  • Supply chain constraints escalated in October and November, which led to lower production and less cost absorption.
  • Cost structure has been rising as headcount has been increasing due to rising backlog.
  • Production constraints magnify the price/cost inflation effect.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2021

Historical avgQ4 2021

+0.9%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.5%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.4%

Avg return

30 days after

58%

38 / 65 earnings

Positive

+31.4%

Q1 2026

Best reaction

-22.9%

Q4 2024

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+31.4%+35.9%+34.9%
Q4 2025+3.5%-12.7%-17.3%
Q3 2025+5.4%+2.0%-12.5%
Q1 2025+5.7%+6.8%+5.5%
Q4 2024-22.9%-26.2%-23.5%
Q3 2024+15.0%+14.5%+14.1%
Q2 2024-3.1%-2.6%+7.9%
Q1 2024-17.0%-16.9%-20.6%
Q4 2023-2.1%-3.9%+2.7%
Q3 2023+1.6%+1.5%+10.5%
Q2 2023-8.0%-9.5%-7.6%
Q1 2023+5.9%-0.9%-6.1%
Q4 2022+11.7%+15.3%+16.3%
Q3 2022+13.6%+18.6%+18.8%
Q2 2022-2.9%+0.1%-6.4%
Q1 2022+4.1%+6.2%+10.7%
Q4 2021-2.3%-7.2%-4.5%
Q3 2021+1.7%+5.5%+9.5%
Q2 2021+8.3%+13.0%+8.3%
Q1 2021+4.0%+2.4%+0.9%
Q4 2020-1.0%-3.8%-7.1%
Q3 2020+6.5%+9.9%+4.7%
Q2 2020-2.3%+0.1%-5.9%
Q1 2020+4.3%+1.3%+24.4%
Q4 2019+3.6%+5.8%-12.9%
Q3 2019-1.1%+0.1%-0.6%
Q2 2019-8.3%-11.5%-5.6%
Q1 2019+3.9%-5.0%-9.0%
Q4 2018-0.7%+2.0%+11.1%
Q3 2018+13.1%+21.4%+10.0%
Q2 2018+2.1%+3.3%+7.7%
Q1 2018-12.3%-9.8%-8.1%
Q4 2017+2.8%-1.0%+9.1%
Q3 2017+0.2%+0.6%+5.7%
Q2 2017+4.3%+3.4%-3.0%
Q1 2017-2.5%-0.5%+0.3%
Q4 2016+0.3%-2.2%+5.4%
Q3 2016-3.5%-0.7%+13.8%
Q2 2016+1.3%+3.5%+10.2%
Q1 2016+9.2%
Q4 2015+11.2%
Q3 2015+11.0%
Q2 2015+3.3%
Q1 2015-5.7%
Q4 2014-2.1%
Q3 2014+2.7%
Q2 2014-1.6%
Q1 2014+6.4%
Q4 2013-5.5%
Q3 2013-8.8%
Q2 2013+5.9%
Q1 2013+5.3%
Q4 2012+2.5%
Q3 2012-4.4%
Q2 2012+4.1%
Q1 2012+0.4%
Q1 2011+0.4%
Q4 2009+5.5%
Q4 2011+5.5%
Q3 2010-2.1%
Q3 2011-2.1%
Q2 2010-14.8%
Q2 2011-14.8%
Q4 2010-14.8%
Q1 2010-4.7%

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