NASDAQ$AAON

Aaon Inc · Q3 2020 earnings

Q3 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

AAON's net sales for the third quarter were an all-time record, with a significant impact on gross profit due to favorable raw material costs and improved productivity.

AAON reported record net sales for the third quarter of 2020, driven by progress in transitioning to a collaborative team-based management approach. Gross profit increased significantly due to favorable raw material costs and improved productivity. The company anticipates challenges in 2021 due to a potential decline in construction, but remains confident in its ability to grow market share in the replacement market.

  • Net sales for the third quarter were an all-time record.
  • Gross profit increased to 30.3% from 24.1% for the corresponding quarter a year ago.
  • The company is uniquely positioned to address COVID challenges with heightened filtration and sanitation technologies.
  • Expansion project at the Longview, Texas facility is nearing completion and expected to be operational by January 2021.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$135M

Previous: $114M+18.7%
EPS (adj)

$0.25

Previous: $0.17+47.1%
Total Backlog

$84.9M

Previous: $143M-40.5%
Free Cash Flow

$20.5M

Previous: $13.8M+48.0%
Net Income

$20.5M

Previous: $13.8M+48.0%
Operating Income

$26.1M

Previous: $14.4M+81.7%
Gross Profit

$40.8M

Previous: $27.4M+49.2%
Cash & Equivalents

$70.6M

Previous: $28.4M+148.8%
Total Assets

$440M

Previous: $352M+24.9%
Stock-Based Comp

$2.85M

Previous: $2.79M+2.4%

Revenue & EPS history

Aaon · Revenue · Quarterly

$135M

Q3 2020+18.7%vs Q3 2019
Beat estimate in 6 of 16 quarters(38%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

The outlook for 2021 continues to present a lot of uncertainty. The Architecture Billings Index has been down for several months, indicating a decline in construction, which may start to impact the new nonresidential construction market in late 2020.

Tailwinds

  • Equipment is uniquely positioned to address COVID challenges by providing heightened filtration and sanitation.
  • Seeing increases in raw materials costs, which we are offsetting in part with our previously announced price increase, which will be effective January 2021.
  • Approximately 50% of our total sales already represented by the replacement market.
  • Confident of ability to grow market share in the replacement market.
  • Improved lead times.

Headwinds

  • The outlook for 2021 continues to present a lot of uncertainty.
  • The Architecture Billings Index has been down for several months, indicating a decline in construction.
  • Construction may start to impact the new nonresidential construction market in late 2020.
  • Beginning to see increases in raw materials costs.
  • Do not see significant growth opportunities in the near term.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2020

Historical avgQ3 2020

+0.9%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.5%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.4%

Avg return

30 days after

58%

38 / 65 earnings

Positive

+31.4%

Q1 2026

Best reaction

-22.9%

Q4 2024

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+31.4%+35.9%+34.9%
Q4 2025+3.5%-12.7%-17.3%
Q3 2025+5.4%+2.0%-12.5%
Q1 2025+5.7%+6.8%+5.5%
Q4 2024-22.9%-26.2%-23.5%
Q3 2024+15.0%+14.5%+14.1%
Q2 2024-3.1%-2.6%+7.9%
Q1 2024-17.0%-16.9%-20.6%
Q4 2023-2.1%-3.9%+2.7%
Q3 2023+1.6%+1.5%+10.5%
Q2 2023-8.0%-9.5%-7.6%
Q1 2023+5.9%-0.9%-6.1%
Q4 2022+11.7%+15.3%+16.3%
Q3 2022+13.6%+18.6%+18.8%
Q2 2022-2.9%+0.1%-6.4%
Q1 2022+4.1%+6.2%+10.7%
Q4 2021-2.3%-7.2%-4.5%
Q3 2021+1.7%+5.5%+9.5%
Q2 2021+8.3%+13.0%+8.3%
Q1 2021+4.0%+2.4%+0.9%
Q4 2020-1.0%-3.8%-7.1%
Q3 2020+6.5%+9.9%+4.7%
Q2 2020-2.3%+0.1%-5.9%
Q1 2020+4.3%+1.3%+24.4%
Q4 2019+3.6%+5.8%-12.9%
Q3 2019-1.1%+0.1%-0.6%
Q2 2019-8.3%-11.5%-5.6%
Q1 2019+3.9%-5.0%-9.0%
Q4 2018-0.7%+2.0%+11.1%
Q3 2018+13.1%+21.4%+10.0%
Q2 2018+2.1%+3.3%+7.7%
Q1 2018-12.3%-9.8%-8.1%
Q4 2017+2.8%-1.0%+9.1%
Q3 2017+0.2%+0.6%+5.7%
Q2 2017+4.3%+3.4%-3.0%
Q1 2017-2.5%-0.5%+0.3%
Q4 2016+0.3%-2.2%+5.4%
Q3 2016-3.5%-0.7%+13.8%
Q2 2016+1.3%+3.5%+10.2%
Q1 2016+9.2%
Q4 2015+11.2%
Q3 2015+11.0%
Q2 2015+3.3%
Q1 2015-5.7%
Q4 2014-2.1%
Q3 2014+2.7%
Q2 2014-1.6%
Q1 2014+6.4%
Q4 2013-5.5%
Q3 2013-8.8%
Q2 2013+5.9%
Q1 2013+5.3%
Q4 2012+2.5%
Q3 2012-4.4%
Q2 2012+4.1%
Q1 2012+0.4%
Q1 2011+0.4%
Q4 2009+5.5%
Q4 2011+5.5%
Q3 2010-2.1%
Q3 2011-2.1%
Q2 2010-14.8%
Q2 2011-14.8%
Q4 2010-14.8%
Q1 2010-4.7%

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