NASDAQ$AAON

Aaon Inc · Q4 2023 earnings

Q4 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported record sales, EBITDA, and earnings, with Q4 mirroring Q3's strong performance due to improved productivity and strategic pricing.

AAON reported a strong fourth quarter in 2023, achieving comparable sales and earnings to the record-setting third quarter. Net sales increased by 20.4% to a record $306.6 million, and earnings per diluted share increased by 19.1% to $0.56. The company's gross profit margin expanded to 36.4%, driven by improved productivity and incremental pricing.

  • Net sales for Q4 2023 increased by 20.4% to a record $306.6 million compared to Q4 2022.
  • Earnings per diluted share for Q4 2023 increased by 19.1% to $0.56, up from $0.47 in Q4 2022.
  • Gross profit margin improved to 36.4% in Q4 2023, compared to 30.8% in the same period last year, driven by productivity gains and pricing.
  • Backlog at the end of Q4 2023 was $510.0 million, a 4.0% increase from the end of Q3 2023.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$307M

Previous: $255M+20.4%
EPS (adj)

$0.56

Previous: $0.47+19.1%
Total Backlog

$510M

Previous: $548M-6.9%
Capital Expenditures

-$26.6M

No prior period
Net Income

$47M

Previous: $38.9M+21.0%
Operating Income

$63.9M

Previous: $46.6M+37.1%
Gross Profit

$112M

Previous: $78.5M+42.3%
Stock-Based Comp

$4.28M

Previous: $3.47M+23.4%

Revenue & EPS history

Aaon · Revenue · Quarterly

$307M

Q4 2023+20.4%vs Q4 2022
Beat estimate in 13 of 15 quarters(87%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

AAON anticipates sales and earnings growth for 2024, albeit at slower rates than recent years, while remaining cautiously optimistic due to signs of slowing in the nonresidential construction sector and uncertainties surrounding the new refrigerant transition.

Tailwinds

  • Continue to take market share due to our advanced position in both new refrigerant equipment and cold climate air-source heat pumps.
  • Majority of product portfolio offered with the new refrigerant in our electronic catalog.
  • Full line of packaged rooftop equipment configurable with heat pumps designed to operate down to zero degrees Fahrenheit.
  • See more opportunity for enhancements in productivity across our operations in 2024.
  • Recently announced changes to Company leadership will help leverage these opportunities, best positioning AAON for growth.

Headwinds

  • Increasingly there are signs of slowing in the nonresidential construction sector.
  • Uncertainties surrounding the new refrigerant transition.
  • External factors that could result in a slower market environment.
  • Timing and extent of changes in raw material and component prices.
  • Effects of fluctuations in the commercial/industrial new construction market.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2023

Historical avgQ4 2023

+0.9%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.5%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.4%

Avg return

30 days after

58%

38 / 65 earnings

Positive

+31.4%

Q1 2026

Best reaction

-22.9%

Q4 2024

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+31.4%+35.9%+34.9%
Q4 2025+3.5%-12.7%-17.3%
Q3 2025+5.4%+2.0%-12.5%
Q1 2025+5.7%+6.8%+5.5%
Q4 2024-22.9%-26.2%-23.5%
Q3 2024+15.0%+14.5%+14.1%
Q2 2024-3.1%-2.6%+7.9%
Q1 2024-17.0%-16.9%-20.6%
Q4 2023-2.1%-3.9%+2.7%
Q3 2023+1.6%+1.5%+10.5%
Q2 2023-8.0%-9.5%-7.6%
Q1 2023+5.9%-0.9%-6.1%
Q4 2022+11.7%+15.3%+16.3%
Q3 2022+13.6%+18.6%+18.8%
Q2 2022-2.9%+0.1%-6.4%
Q1 2022+4.1%+6.2%+10.7%
Q4 2021-2.3%-7.2%-4.5%
Q3 2021+1.7%+5.5%+9.5%
Q2 2021+8.3%+13.0%+8.3%
Q1 2021+4.0%+2.4%+0.9%
Q4 2020-1.0%-3.8%-7.1%
Q3 2020+6.5%+9.9%+4.7%
Q2 2020-2.3%+0.1%-5.9%
Q1 2020+4.3%+1.3%+24.4%
Q4 2019+3.6%+5.8%-12.9%
Q3 2019-1.1%+0.1%-0.6%
Q2 2019-8.3%-11.5%-5.6%
Q1 2019+3.9%-5.0%-9.0%
Q4 2018-0.7%+2.0%+11.1%
Q3 2018+13.1%+21.4%+10.0%
Q2 2018+2.1%+3.3%+7.7%
Q1 2018-12.3%-9.8%-8.1%
Q4 2017+2.8%-1.0%+9.1%
Q3 2017+0.2%+0.6%+5.7%
Q2 2017+4.3%+3.4%-3.0%
Q1 2017-2.5%-0.5%+0.3%
Q4 2016+0.3%-2.2%+5.4%
Q3 2016-3.5%-0.7%+13.8%
Q2 2016+1.3%+3.5%+10.2%
Q1 2016+9.2%
Q4 2015+11.2%
Q3 2015+11.0%
Q2 2015+3.3%
Q1 2015-5.7%
Q4 2014-2.1%
Q3 2014+2.7%
Q2 2014-1.6%
Q1 2014+6.4%
Q4 2013-5.5%
Q3 2013-8.8%
Q2 2013+5.9%
Q1 2013+5.3%
Q4 2012+2.5%
Q3 2012-4.4%
Q2 2012+4.1%
Q1 2012+0.4%
Q1 2011+0.4%
Q4 2009+5.5%
Q4 2011+5.5%
Q3 2010-2.1%
Q3 2011-2.1%
Q2 2010-14.8%
Q2 2011-14.8%
Q4 2010-14.8%
Q1 2010-4.7%

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