NYSE$VAC

Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corp · Q3 2023 earnings

Q3 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported third quarter results, impacted by Maui wildfires and increased loan loss provision, but saw sequential VPG growth.

Marriott Vacations Worldwide's third quarter results were impacted by the Maui wildfires and higher loan loss provisions. While net income and EPS decreased compared to the prior year, volume per guest increased sequentially. The company updated its full year outlook to account for these factors.

  • Consolidated Vacation Ownership contract sales reached $438 million.
  • Volume per guest increased 2% sequentially to $4,055, despite a negative impact from the Maui wildfires.
  • Net income attributable to common shareholders was $42 million, with fully diluted earnings per share at $1.09.
  • The company repurchased 793,300 shares of its common stock for $86 million.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$1.19B

Previous: $1.25B-5.3%
EPS (adj)

$1.20

Previous: $3.02-60.3%
VPG

$4.06K

Previous: $4.35K-6.8%
Capital Expenditures

-$92M

Previous: -$36M-155.6%
Free Cash Flow

-$50M

Previous: $73M-168.5%
Net Income

$42M

Previous: $109M-61.5%
Operating Income

$679M

Previous: $759M-10.5%
Gross Profit

$1B

Previous: $1.12B-10.5%
Cash & Equivalents

$265M

Previous: $294M-9.9%
Total Assets

$9.45B

Previous: $9.24B+2.3%
Stock-Based Comp

$6M

Previous: $10M-40.0%

Revenue & EPS history

Marriott Vacations · Revenue · Quarterly

$1.19B

Q3 2023-5.3%vs Q3 2022
Beat estimate in 9 of 14 quarters(64%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Marriott Vacations · $1.19B total across 5 segments · Q3 2023

  • Cost Reimbursements
    $443M+19.4%
  • Sale of VO Products
    $319M-28.2%
  • Management and Exchange
    $205M+3.5%
  • Rental
    $138M-16.4%
  • Financing
    $81M+9.5%

Forward guidance

The company expects the Maui wildfires to negatively impact its fourth quarter contract sales, net income, and Adjusted EBITDA. The company updated its full year 2023 guidance to reflect the estimated impact of the wildfires.

Tailwinds

  • Guidance includes the estimated impact of the Maui wildfires on the Company’s results.
  • Estimate contract sales between $1,750 to $1,770 million
  • Estimate net income attributable to common shareholders between $268 to $278 million
  • Estimate earnings per share - diluted between $6.59 to $6.82
  • Estimate Adjusted EBITDA between $745 to $765 million

Headwinds

  • Expects wildfires to negatively impact its fourth quarter contract sales by approximately $32 to $37 million
  • Expects wildfires to negatively impact its Net income attributable to common shareholders by approximately $19 to $22 million
  • Expects wildfires to negatively impact its Adjusted EBITDA by approximately $26 to $31 million
  • Net cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash provided by operating activities between $271 to $307 million
  • Adjusted free cash flow between $430 to $460 million

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2023

Historical avgQ3 2023

-0.1%

Avg return

Earnings day

-1.5%

Avg return

5 days after

-0.8%

Avg return

30 days after

51%

32 / 63 earnings

Positive

+21.0%

Q3 2024

Best reaction

-26.8%

Q3 2025

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+5.1%+10.0%+23.7%
Q3 2025-26.8%-30.5%-18.1%
Q2 2025-2.0%-4.7%+6.0%
Q1 2025+10.5%+24.3%+13.5%
Q4 2024-9.3%-16.8%-22.5%
Q4 2025+0.1%-14.0%-22.4%
Q3 2024+21.0%+18.7%+22.0%
Q2 2024-10.7%-17.5%-15.2%
Q1 2024+2.0%+2.4%-9.5%
Q4 2023+11.7%+10.2%+15.1%
Q3 2023-8.2%-12.1%-13.7%
Q2 2023-11.9%-11.1%-12.5%
Q1 2023-4.2%-5.2%-4.8%
Q4 2022-1.7%-1.5%-18.1%
Q3 2022-0.9%-5.7%+1.3%
Q2 2022+3.4%+7.8%+1.8%
Q1 2022-4.1%-5.7%-0.7%
Q4 2021-3.0%-3.4%-6.4%
Q3 2021-0.5%-1.3%-5.0%
Q2 2021-5.8%-9.4%-1.8%
Q1 2021-2.6%-2.6%-3.5%
Q4 2020+0.0%+6.3%+4.1%
Q3 2020+9.2%+23.0%+38.8%
Q2 2020-0.7%-5.9%+11.8%
Q1 2020+3.0%+1.6%+30.5%
Q4 2019-5.6%-2.7%-41.3%
Q3 2019+3.2%+4.8%+9.7%
Q2 2019-5.7%-17.6%-3.9%
Q1 2019-3.6%-7.1%-14.3%
Q4 2018+3.3%+1.2%-4.2%
Q3 2018-9.2%-21.2%-24.5%
Q2 2018+2.4%+3.4%+1.8%
Q1 2018-4.6%-3.0%-1.0%
Q4 2017-1.4%+2.5%-6.5%
Q3 2017+8.1%+7.2%+1.3%
Q2 2017+0.9%-1.4%+3.2%
Q1 2017+1.4%-0.5%+5.0%
Q4 2016+10.1%+4.6%+8.1%
Q3 2016-7.0%-4.2%+6.0%
Q2 2016+11.6%+16.1%+13.0%
Q1 2016-7.6%
Q4 2015+12.5%
Q3 2015-16.8%
Q2 2015-7.8%
Q1 2015+7.5%
Q4 2014-1.3%
Q3 2014+7.1%
Q2 2014+0.5%
Q1 2014+3.4%
Q4 2013+4.1%
Q3 2013+9.2%
Q2 2013-5.6%
Q1 2013+5.6%
Q4 2012-12.7%
Q3 2012+0.1%
Q2 2012+8.3%
Q1 2011+0.5%
Q1 2012+8.6%
Q2 2011+1.1%
Q4 2011+3.4%
Q3 2011-0.7%
Q1 2010-0.7%
Q4 2010-0.7%
Q3 2010
Q2 2010

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