NYSE$VAC

Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corp · Q1 2020 earnings

Q1 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported preliminary financial results for Q1 2020 and provided an operational update on business conditions due to COVID-19.

Marriott Vacations Worldwide reported a challenging first quarter in 2020, impacted significantly by the COVID-19 pandemic. While consolidated contract sales decreased by 13%, the company took decisive actions to mitigate the financial impact, including cost reductions and deferring investments. The company expects a net loss attributable to common shareholders between $39 million and $114 million.

  • Consolidated vacation ownership contract sales decreased by 13% due to COVID-19 impact.
  • Net loss attributable to common shareholders is expected to be between $39 million and $114 million, or $0.95 and $2.75 loss per share.
  • Adjusted net income attributable to common shareholders is expected to increase 34% to $89 million, with adjusted EPS increasing 48% to $2.15.
  • Adjusted EBITDA is expected to decrease 17% to $138 million.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$1.01B

Previous: $1.06B-4.7%
EPS (adj)

$2.15

Previous: $1.45+48.3%
VPG

$3.68K

Previous: $3.35K+9.9%
Capital Expenditures

-$17M

Previous: -$10M-70.0%
Free Cash Flow

-$123M

Previous: $14M-978.6%
Net Income

-$106M

Previous: $24M-541.7%
Operating Income

$581M

Previous: $661M-12.1%
Gross Profit

$1.01B

Previous: $1.04B-3.4%
Cash & Equivalents

$651M

Previous: $222M+193.2%
Total Assets

$9.43B

Previous: $9.11B+3.5%
Stock-Based Comp

$3M

Previous: $7M-57.1%

Revenue & EPS history

Marriott Vacations · Revenue · Quarterly

$1.01B

Q1 2020-4.7%vs Q1 2019
Beat estimate in 9 of 16 quarters(56%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Marriott Vacations · $1.01B total across 5 segments · Q1 2020

  • Cost Reimbursements
    $318M+10.8%
  • Sale of VO Products
    $258M-11.9%
  • Management and Exchange
    $230M-3.8%
  • Rental
    $132M-10.2%
  • Financing
    $72M+5.9%

Forward guidance

Even if sales center closures and limited transient rentals were to persist, its cash position will provide it with adequate liquidity to fund its operations and debt service payments for the foreseeable future. The Company has no corporate debt maturities until September 2022 and is currently in compliance with all debt covenants.

Tailwinds

  • Available liquidity through at least 2021.
  • Actions to defer inventory and other investments by up to $260 million to help mitigate the impact of COVID-19.
  • Additional actions to substantially reduce its operating costs in the current environment.
  • Increased the borrowing capacity of its warehouse facility by more than 50% to $531 million.
  • Cash position will provide it with adequate liquidity to fund its operations and debt service payments for the foreseeable future.

Headwinds

  • The Company expects to report a 13% decline in first quarter consolidated vacation ownership contract sales.
  • Net loss attributable to common shareholders is expected to be between a loss of $39 million and $114 million.
  • The Company expects to record a non-cash asset impairment charge of $20 million to $100 million.
  • Adjusted EBITDA is expected to decrease 17% to $138 million in the first quarter of 2020.
  • Exchange & Third-Party Management revenues are expected to decrease 14% in the first quarter of 2020.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2020

Historical avgQ1 2020

-0.1%

Avg return

Earnings day

-1.5%

Avg return

5 days after

-0.8%

Avg return

30 days after

51%

32 / 63 earnings

Positive

+21.0%

Q3 2024

Best reaction

-26.8%

Q3 2025

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+5.1%+10.0%+23.7%
Q3 2025-26.8%-30.5%-18.1%
Q2 2025-2.0%-4.7%+6.0%
Q1 2025+10.5%+24.3%+13.5%
Q4 2024-9.3%-16.8%-22.5%
Q4 2025+0.1%-14.0%-22.4%
Q3 2024+21.0%+18.7%+22.0%
Q2 2024-10.7%-17.5%-15.2%
Q1 2024+2.0%+2.4%-9.5%
Q4 2023+11.7%+10.2%+15.1%
Q3 2023-8.2%-12.1%-13.7%
Q2 2023-11.9%-11.1%-12.5%
Q1 2023-4.2%-5.2%-4.8%
Q4 2022-1.7%-1.5%-18.1%
Q3 2022-0.9%-5.7%+1.3%
Q2 2022+3.4%+7.8%+1.8%
Q1 2022-4.1%-5.7%-0.7%
Q4 2021-3.0%-3.4%-6.4%
Q3 2021-0.5%-1.3%-5.0%
Q2 2021-5.8%-9.4%-1.8%
Q1 2021-2.6%-2.6%-3.5%
Q4 2020+0.0%+6.3%+4.1%
Q3 2020+9.2%+23.0%+38.8%
Q2 2020-0.7%-5.9%+11.8%
Q1 2020+3.0%+1.6%+30.5%
Q4 2019-5.6%-2.7%-41.3%
Q3 2019+3.2%+4.8%+9.7%
Q2 2019-5.7%-17.6%-3.9%
Q1 2019-3.6%-7.1%-14.3%
Q4 2018+3.3%+1.2%-4.2%
Q3 2018-9.2%-21.2%-24.5%
Q2 2018+2.4%+3.4%+1.8%
Q1 2018-4.6%-3.0%-1.0%
Q4 2017-1.4%+2.5%-6.5%
Q3 2017+8.1%+7.2%+1.3%
Q2 2017+0.9%-1.4%+3.2%
Q1 2017+1.4%-0.5%+5.0%
Q4 2016+10.1%+4.6%+8.1%
Q3 2016-7.0%-4.2%+6.0%
Q2 2016+11.6%+16.1%+13.0%
Q1 2016-7.6%
Q4 2015+12.5%
Q3 2015-16.8%
Q2 2015-7.8%
Q1 2015+7.5%
Q4 2014-1.3%
Q3 2014+7.1%
Q2 2014+0.5%
Q1 2014+3.4%
Q4 2013+4.1%
Q3 2013+9.2%
Q2 2013-5.6%
Q1 2013+5.6%
Q4 2012-12.7%
Q3 2012+0.1%
Q2 2012+8.3%
Q1 2011+0.5%
Q1 2012+8.6%
Q2 2011+1.1%
Q4 2011+3.4%
Q3 2011-0.7%
Q1 2010-0.7%
Q4 2010-0.7%
Q3 2010
Q2 2010

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