NYSE$UPS

United Parcel Service Inc · Q4 2019 earnings

Q4 2019 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

UPS reported mixed Q4 2019 results, with a GAAP EPS loss but adjusted EPS growth, driven by U.S. domestic volume and margin expansion across all segments.

UPS's Q4 2019 results showed strong U.S. domestic volume growth and margin improvements across all segments. While GAAP EPS was negative due to non-cash charges, adjusted EPS increased by 8.8%. The company is focusing on SMB initiatives and network improvements to drive future growth.

  • Operating profit grew and margins expanded in all segments.
  • Positive operating leverage was achieved due to lower unit costs in the U.S. Domestic segment.
  • Adjusted diluted EPS increased by 8.8% to $2.11.
  • U.S. daily volume grew nearly 9%, with Next Day Air volume up nearly 26%.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$20.6B

Previous: $19.8B+3.6%
EPS (adj)

$2.11

Previous: $1.94+8.8%
Capital Expenditures

$2.04B

Previous: $1.79B+14.0%
Free Cash Flow

$902M

Previous: $1.5B-39.7%
Net Income

-$106M

Previous: $453M-123.4%
Operating Income

$2.13B

Previous: $2B+6.4%
Gross Profit

$2.13B

Previous: $2B+6.4%
Cash & Equivalents

$5.24B

Previous: $4.23B+24.0%
Total Assets

$57.9B

Previous: $50B+15.7%
Stock-Based Comp

$199M

Previous: $127M+56.7%

Revenue & EPS history

UPS · Revenue · Quarterly

$20.6B

Q4 2019+3.6%vs Q4 2018
Beat estimate in 11 of 16 quarters(69%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

UPS · $20.6B total across 3 segments · Q4 2019

  • U.S. Domestic Package
    $13.4B
  • International Package
    $3.76B
  • Supply Chain Solutions
    $3.4B

Forward guidance

UPS anticipates adjusted, diluted earnings per share to be in the range of $7.76 to $8.06 for 2020. The guidance includes forecasted weakness on the industrial side of the U.S. and global economies as well as spending on SMB initiatives that will significantly increase UPS competitiveness and will be EPS accretive in 2021.

Tailwinds

  • Adjusted, diluted earnings per share are expected to be in a range of $7.76 to $8.06.
  • Capital expenditures are planned to be around $6.7 billion, primarily to support global facility and automation expansions.
  • Cash from operations is expected to be around $10 billion.
  • Free cash flow is anticipated to be between $4.3 and $4.7 billion.
  • SMB initiatives will significantly increase UPS competitiveness and will be EPS accretive in 2021.

Headwinds

  • Guidance includes forecasted weakness on the industrial side of the U.S. economy.
  • Guidance includes forecasted weakness on the industrial side of the global economy.
  • Spending on SMB initiatives will impact 2020 earnings.
  • Transformation charges are excluded from guidance.
  • It is not possible to predict or provide a reconciliation reflecting the impact of future pension mark-to-market adjustments or other unanticipated events.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2019

Historical avgQ4 2019

-0.3%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.9%

Avg return

5 days after

-0.2%

Avg return

30 days after

48%

35 / 73 earnings

Positive

+15.4%

Q2 2020

Best reaction

-14.1%

Q4 2024

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-4.6%-0.6%-1.9%
Q4 2025+0.9%-0.7%+9.0%
Q3 2025+7.7%+8.1%+7.2%
Q2 2025-0.6%-0.5%-2.0%
Q1 2025-0.4%-0.7%+1.0%
Q4 2024-14.1%-16.5%-11.0%
Q3 2024+4.6%+2.2%+2.6%
Q2 2024-11.5%-11.3%-12.6%
Q1 2024+0.9%+1.5%-4.3%
Q4 2023-10.2%-10.2%-6.2%
Q3 2023-8.2%-3.9%+3.5%
Q2 2023-1.5%-3.0%-10.9%
Q1 2023-11.9%-8.2%-12.6%
Q4 2022+4.5%+8.3%+4.4%
Q3 2022+0.9%-0.2%+9.1%
Q2 2022-2.1%+3.7%+9.1%
Q1 2022-1.7%-5.1%-5.9%
Q4 2021+14.8%+11.2%+5.1%
Q3 2021+4.1%+4.7%+2.2%
Q2 2021-8.5%-8.8%-8.3%
Q1 2021+12.8%+16.0%+21.0%
Q4 2020+2.2%+5.2%+2.0%
Q3 2020-5.5%-6.6%-1.1%
Q2 2020+15.4%+17.0%+31.3%
Q1 2020-6.3%-10.4%-2.8%
Q4 2019-10.6%-10.7%-21.8%
Q3 2019-2.8%-2.4%+0.8%
Q2 2019+12.3%+12.8%+5.7%
Q1 2019-9.2%-7.2%-16.2%
Q4 2018+4.8%+6.4%+10.8%
Q3 2018-5.6%-8.0%-4.9%
Q2 2018+5.7%+5.6%+9.2%
Q1 2018+4.9%+3.5%+6.3%
Q4 2017-8.5%-11.5%-17.2%
Q3 2017+1.9%-0.9%-4.6%
Q2 2017-2.3%-1.9%+1.0%
Q1 2017-0.1%-0.7%-1.6%
Q4 2016-10.0%-8.6%-9.5%
Q3 2016-0.8%-1.6%+7.0%
Q2 2016-0.7%-0.4%+0.2%
Q1 2016-1.3%
Q4 2015+1.3%
Q3 2015-3.3%
Q2 2015+6.1%
Q1 2015+3.9%
Q4 2014+0.4%
Q3 2014+1.8%
Q2 2014-3.2%
Q1 2014-1.9%
Q4 2013-0.1%
Q3 2013+3.5%
Q2 2013-0.7%
Q1 2013+2.6%
Q4 2012-1.6%
Q3 2012+2.2%
Q2 2012-4.7%
Q1 2012-1.5%
Q2 2011+0.5%
Q4 2011+0.5%
Q3 2011-0.1%
Q1 2011-0.2%
Q2 2010-1.5%
Q4 2010-1.5%
Q3 2010+0.2%
Q1 2009+3.8%
Q1 2010-0.6%
Q2 2009+0.7%
Q4 2007+0.7%
Q4 2009+0.7%
Q3 2008+3.2%
Q3 2009+3.2%
Q2 2008+0.9%
Q4 2008+0.9%

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