NYSE$UPS

United Parcel Service Inc · Q4 2024 earnings

Q4 2024 earnings · · Before market open · Investor relations

Briefing

UPS reported Q4 2024 earnings with revenue increase and provided 2025 guidance.

UPS announced Q4 2024 consolidated revenues of $25.3 billion, a 1.5% increase from Q4 2023. Diluted earnings per share were $2.01, and non-GAAP adjusted diluted earnings per share were $2.75, 11.3% above the same period in 2023.

  • Consolidated revenues reached $25.3 billion, a 1.5% increase compared to the previous year.
  • Consolidated operating margin was 11.6%, with a non-GAAP adjusted margin of 12.3%.
  • Diluted EPS stood at $2.01, while non-GAAP adjusted diluted EPS was $2.75, surpassing the previous year by 11.3%.
  • The company is making strategic changes, including reducing volume with its largest customer and insourcing UPS SurePost product.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$25.3B

Previous: $24.9B+1.5%
EPS (adj)

$2.75

Previous: $2.47+11.3%
Capital Expenditures

-$1.1B

Previous: -$2.05B+46.4%
Free Cash Flow

$2.22B

No prior period
Net Income

$1.72B

Previous: $1.61B+7.2%
Operating Income

$2.93B

Previous: $2.48B+18.1%
Gross Profit

$5.26B

Previous: $4.82B+9.2%

Revenue & EPS history

UPS · Revenue · Quarterly

$25.3B

Q4 2024+1.5%vs Q4 2023
Beat estimate in 5 of 15 quarters(33%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

UPS · $21.1B total across 3 segments · Q3 2023

  • U.S. Domestic Package
    $13.7B-11.1%
  • International Package
    $4.27B-11.1%
  • Supply Chain Solutions
    $3.13B-21.4%

Forward guidance

For the full year 2025, on a consolidated basis, UPS expects revenue to be approximately $89.0 billion and operating margin to be approximately 10.8%.

Tailwinds

  • Revenue to be approximately $89.0 billion.
  • Operating margin to be approximately 10.8%.
  • Capital expenditures of about $3.5 billion.
  • Dividend payments of around $5.5 billion, subject to board approval.
  • Share repurchases of around $1.0 billion.

Headwinds

  • Agreement in principle with its largest customer to lower its volume by more than 50% by the second half of 2026.
  • Reconfiguring its U.S. network.
  • Launching multi-year “efficiency reimagined” initiatives to drive approximately $1.0 billion in savings through an end-to-end process redesign.
  • The effective tax rate is expected to be around 23.5%.
  • Not able to predict or provide a reconciliation reflecting the impact of various potential future events, including the impact of pension adjustments, certain strategic initiatives or other unanticipated events, which would be included in reported (GAAP) results and could be material.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2024

Historical avgQ4 2024

-0.3%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.9%

Avg return

5 days after

-0.2%

Avg return

30 days after

48%

35 / 73 earnings

Positive

+15.4%

Q2 2020

Best reaction

-14.1%

Q4 2024

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-4.6%-0.6%-1.9%
Q4 2025+0.9%-0.7%+9.0%
Q3 2025+7.7%+8.1%+7.2%
Q2 2025-0.6%-0.5%-2.0%
Q1 2025-0.4%-0.7%+1.0%
Q4 2024-14.1%-16.5%-11.0%
Q3 2024+4.6%+2.2%+2.6%
Q2 2024-11.5%-11.3%-12.6%
Q1 2024+0.9%+1.5%-4.3%
Q4 2023-10.2%-10.2%-6.2%
Q3 2023-8.2%-3.9%+3.5%
Q2 2023-1.5%-3.0%-10.9%
Q1 2023-11.9%-8.2%-12.6%
Q4 2022+4.5%+8.3%+4.4%
Q3 2022+0.9%-0.2%+9.1%
Q2 2022-2.1%+3.7%+9.1%
Q1 2022-1.7%-5.1%-5.9%
Q4 2021+14.8%+11.2%+5.1%
Q3 2021+4.1%+4.7%+2.2%
Q2 2021-8.5%-8.8%-8.3%
Q1 2021+12.8%+16.0%+21.0%
Q4 2020+2.2%+5.2%+2.0%
Q3 2020-5.5%-6.6%-1.1%
Q2 2020+15.4%+17.0%+31.3%
Q1 2020-6.3%-10.4%-2.8%
Q4 2019-10.6%-10.7%-21.8%
Q3 2019-2.8%-2.4%+0.8%
Q2 2019+12.3%+12.8%+5.7%
Q1 2019-9.2%-7.2%-16.2%
Q4 2018+4.8%+6.4%+10.8%
Q3 2018-5.6%-8.0%-4.9%
Q2 2018+5.7%+5.6%+9.2%
Q1 2018+4.9%+3.5%+6.3%
Q4 2017-8.5%-11.5%-17.2%
Q3 2017+1.9%-0.9%-4.6%
Q2 2017-2.3%-1.9%+1.0%
Q1 2017-0.1%-0.7%-1.6%
Q4 2016-10.0%-8.6%-9.5%
Q3 2016-0.8%-1.6%+7.0%
Q2 2016-0.7%-0.4%+0.2%
Q1 2016-1.3%
Q4 2015+1.3%
Q3 2015-3.3%
Q2 2015+6.1%
Q1 2015+3.9%
Q4 2014+0.4%
Q3 2014+1.8%
Q2 2014-3.2%
Q1 2014-1.9%
Q4 2013-0.1%
Q3 2013+3.5%
Q2 2013-0.7%
Q1 2013+2.6%
Q4 2012-1.6%
Q3 2012+2.2%
Q2 2012-4.7%
Q1 2012-1.5%
Q2 2011+0.5%
Q4 2011+0.5%
Q3 2011-0.1%
Q1 2011-0.2%
Q2 2010-1.5%
Q4 2010-1.5%
Q3 2010+0.2%
Q1 2009+3.8%
Q1 2010-0.6%
Q2 2009+0.7%
Q4 2007+0.7%
Q4 2009+0.7%
Q3 2008+3.2%
Q3 2009+3.2%
Q2 2008+0.9%
Q4 2008+0.9%

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