NYSE$R

Ryder System Inc · Q4 2019 earnings

Q4 2019 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Ryder reported a record total revenue for Q4 2019 despite a GAAP EPS loss, impacted by residual value estimate changes and a pension settlement charge.

Ryder System, Inc. reported record total revenue of $2.3 billion for the fourth quarter of 2019, a 0.7% increase year-over-year. However, the company experienced a GAAP EPS loss of $(1.02), primarily due to the impact of previously announced changes in residual value estimates and a one-time pension settlement charge. Comparable EPS (non-GAAP) from continuing operations was a loss of $(0.01).

  • Delivered record total and operating revenue, driven by favorable outsourcing trends.
  • Earnings reflect the impact of the previously announced vehicle residual value estimate change.
  • Rental demand softened and came in slightly below expectations.
  • Continued to benefit from long-term outsourcing trends.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$2.28B

Previous: $2.26B+0.8%
EPS (adj)

-$0.01

Previous: $1.82-100.5%
Rental Utilization - Power

76.0%

Previous: 81.6%-6.9%
SelectCare Avg Fleet

56.9K

No prior period
Net Income

-$53.5M

Previous: $109M-149.2%
Operating Income

-$38M

No prior period
Gross Profit

$279M

Previous: $431M-35.2%
Cash & Equivalents

$73.6M

Previous: $68.1M+8.0%
Total Assets

$14.5B

Previous: $13.3B+8.4%

Revenue & EPS history

Ryder · Revenue · Quarterly

$2.28B

Q4 2019+0.8%vs Q4 2018
Beat estimate in 9 of 16 quarters(56%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Ryder · $2.35B total across 6 segments · Q4 2019

  • ChoiceLease
    $819M
  • Supply Chain Solutions
    $649M
  • Dedicated Transportation
    $346M
  • Commercial Rental
    $256M
  • Fuel Services
    $141M
  • SelectCare & Other
    $136M

Forward guidance

Ryder anticipates a strategy of moderate growth in FMS and accelerating growth in dedicated and supply chain, delivering a balance of revenue and earnings growth with positive free cash flow over a cycle.

Tailwinds

  • Expect an increase in EPS reflecting a lessened impact from the previously announced vehicle residual value estimate change and growth in our contractual business.
  • Benefits related to our zero-based budgeting cost savings program are anticipated to offset higher employee compensation and benefit costs.
  • Plan to continue to invest in strategic initiatives in sales and marketing including additional resources in dedicated and supply chain, information technology, and new product development related to disruptive trends in the industry.
  • Expect a significant reduction in capital spending as a result of slower market conditions in rental and lower lease growth.
  • Anticipate our balance sheet leverage to decline modestly at year-end.

Headwinds

  • Expect year-over-year operating revenue to be unchanged.
  • Anticipate growth in lease and supply chain to be offset by a slowdown in rental and dedicated transportation solutions.
  • Anticipate softer conditions in rental throughout the year reflecting a weaker freight environment, particularly for heavy duty tractors.
  • Expect earnings headwinds from prior-year favorable insurance developments, residual value estimate changes on vehicles used in this segment, and strategic investments.
  • Expect a near-term negative earnings impact related to some of our return-on-capital action plans which are expected to improve performance in future years.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2019

Historical avgQ4 2019

-0.5%

Avg return

Earnings day

-1.6%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.5%

Avg return

30 days after

52%

36 / 69 earnings

Positive

+15.3%

Q1 2020

Best reaction

-20.1%

Q4 2019

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-1.7%+8.8%+7.1%
Q4 2025+2.4%+0.7%-11.4%
Q3 2025-12.2%-7.6%-8.0%
Q2 2025-0.8%-1.2%+2.1%
Q1 2025-1.9%+0.1%+8.2%
Q4 2024+3.0%+5.2%-11.1%
Q3 2024-3.6%+0.1%+14.2%
Q2 2024+1.8%+7.3%+9.5%
Q1 2024+12.1%+11.9%+10.5%
Q4 2023-7.6%-9.5%-5.2%
Q3 2023-4.9%-3.0%+9.8%
Q2 2023+8.4%+11.3%+5.6%
Q1 2023-6.4%-3.8%-4.1%
Q4 2022+1.9%+1.8%-14.2%
Q3 2022+9.9%+7.9%+28.7%
Q2 2022+4.4%+4.3%+8.4%
Q1 2022+4.4%+4.5%+17.9%
Q4 2021+2.7%+2.8%+10.1%
Q3 2021-4.8%-5.0%-6.2%
Q2 2021+4.5%+2.5%+9.9%
Q1 2021+6.7%+4.5%+6.5%
Q4 2020-6.2%-7.5%+11.9%
Q3 2020+1.4%-1.2%+21.0%
Q2 2020-10.8%-14.4%-1.3%
Q1 2020+15.3%+6.8%+11.6%
Q4 2019-20.1%-23.4%-38.5%
Q3 2019-12.1%-8.9%-3.3%
Q2 2019-10.2%-15.9%-19.3%
Q1 2019-7.5%-2.8%-20.2%
Q4 2018+6.5%+5.8%+0.7%
Q3 2018-10.3%-9.3%-12.1%
Q2 2018+7.3%+5.0%+6.3%
Q1 2018-9.1%-9.3%-6.9%
Q4 2017-11.4%-11.8%-11.3%
Q3 2017-1.7%+1.6%-6.5%
Q2 2017-0.5%-1.1%+1.0%
Q1 2017-14.1%-14.3%-15.7%
Q4 2016-4.9%-4.5%-1.3%
Q3 2016+5.6%+5.2%+22.9%
Q2 2016-5.9%-6.6%-8.0%
Q1 2016+9.5%
Q4 2015-5.0%
Q3 2015-2.3%
Q2 2015-5.8%
Q1 2015+2.9%
Q4 2014+5.3%
Q3 2014-3.2%
Q2 2014+1.3%
Q1 2014+2.1%
Q4 2013+0.1%
Q3 2013+3.7%
Q2 2013-2.2%
Q1 2013-0.6%
Q4 2012+6.7%
Q3 2012+2.7%
Q2 2012+8.2%
Q1 2012+1.2%
Q4 2008+0.4%
Q4 2011+0.4%
Q3 2011+9.5%
Q4 2010-0.9%
Q2 2011-0.9%
Q1 2010+6.2%
Q1 2011+1.0%
Q3 2009-2.7%
Q3 2010-2.7%
Q4 2009+0.6%
Q2 2009+0.6%
Q2 2010+0.6%

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