NYSE$PII

Polaris Industries Inc · Q2 2020 earnings

Q2 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Polaris' second quarter results were released with reported sales down 15 percent and a net loss of $235 million, impacted by a $379 million pre-tax impairment charge in the Aftermarket business.

Polaris Inc. reported a decrease in sales by 15% to $1,512 million, and a net loss of $235 million, or $(3.82) per diluted share, for the second quarter of 2020. The results were impacted by a $379 million pre-tax, non-cash impairment charge related to the Aftermarket business. However, adjusted net income was $81 million, or $1.30 per diluted share, as retail demand benefited from new and existing customers seeking outdoor activities while social distancing.

  • Second quarter reported and adjusted sales decreased 15% to $1,512 million and $1,510 million, respectively
  • Second quarter reported net loss was $3.82 per share; adjusted net income for the same period was $1.30 per share
  • North American retail sales increased 57% for the quarter compared to last year with both ORV and Motorcycle retail sales up significantly
  • Dealer inventory levels decreased 47% given the strong retail sales growth and lower shipments resulting from the COVID-19 related temporary suspension of production during the quarter

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$1.51B

Previous: $1.78B-15.0%
EPS (adj)

$1.30

Previous: $1.73-24.9%
Capital Expenditures

-$88.1M

Previous: -$137M+35.8%
Free Cash Flow

-$324M

Previous: -$48.9M-561.0%
Net Income

-$235M

Previous: $88.3M-366.7%
Operating Income

-$295M

Previous: $135M-318.6%
Gross Profit

$333M

Previous: $436M-23.8%
Cash & Equivalents

$544M

Previous: $96.1M+466.6%
Total Assets

$4.31B

Previous: $4.36B-1.2%
Stock-Based Comp

$19.8M

Previous: $22.1M-10.5%

Revenue & EPS history

Polaris · Revenue · Quarterly

$1.51B

Q2 2020-15%vs Q2 2019
Beat estimate in 15 of 16 quarters(94%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Polaris · $2.25B total across 3 segments · Q3 2023

  • Off-Road
    $1.84B+5.6%
  • On-Road
    $270M-19.1%
  • Marine
    $134M-48.4%

Forward guidance

The Company re-initiated its sales and adjusted earnings guidance for the full year 2020. Adjusted net income is expected to be in the range of $6.40 to $6.60 per diluted share for the full year 2020 compared to adjusted net income of $6.32 per diluted share for 2019. Sales are now expected to be in the range of $6.650 billion to $6.750 billion, flat to down two percent compared to 2019 adjusted sales of $6,783 million, due to the pandemic driven plant shut-down in the second quarter 2020.

Tailwinds

  • Adjusted net income is expected to be in the range of $6.40 to $6.60 per diluted share for the full year 2020 compared to adjusted net income of $6.32 per diluted share for 2019.
  • Sales are now expected to be in the range of $6.650 billion to $6.750 billion.
  • Ongoing strong consumer demand
  • Historically low dealer inventory levels
  • Well-positioned for the second half of the year

Headwinds

  • Pandemic driven plant shut-down in the second quarter 2020.
  • The Company has not provided reconciliations of guidance for adjusted diluted net income per share, in reliance on the unreasonable efforts exception provided under Item 10(e)(1)(i)(B) of Regulation S-K.
  • The Company is unable, without unreasonable efforts, to forecast certain items required to develop meaningful comparable GAAP financial measures.
  • These items include restructuring and realignment costs and acquisition integration costs that are difficult to predict in advance in order to include in a GAAP estimate.
  • Severity and duration of the COVID-19 pandemic and the resulting impact on the Company’s business and the global economy

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q2 2020

Historical avgQ2 2020

-1.0%

Avg return

Earnings day

-1.5%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.2%

Avg return

30 days after

41%

28 / 69 earnings

Positive

+15.2%

Q3 2017

Best reaction

-15.8%

Q4 2017

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+8.8%+8.8%+14.9%
Q4 2025-4.4%-7.6%-7.6%
Q3 2025-5.9%-7.1%-6.7%
Q2 2025-2.7%-6.4%-2.6%
Q1 2025+0.3%+3.2%+18.2%
Q4 2024-5.0%-14.9%-12.5%
Q3 2024-13.1%-11.1%-16.5%
Q2 2024-11.2%+0.7%+0.8%
Q1 2024-3.4%-5.0%-6.8%
Q4 2023-3.0%-2.4%+0.0%
Q3 2023-5.6%-7.3%-2.3%
Q2 2023+2.0%+0.2%-17.5%
Q1 2023-3.1%-0.7%-2.9%
Q4 2022+10.5%+10.8%+8.3%
Q3 2022+5.8%+7.8%+19.4%
Q2 2022-1.5%+3.8%+7.8%
Q1 2022-9.0%-11.1%-1.5%
Q4 2021+1.1%+1.9%+7.3%
Q3 2021-7.1%-9.0%-3.1%
Q2 2021-7.4%-5.7%-11.4%
Q1 2021-4.9%-3.4%-8.8%
Q4 2020-1.8%-2.4%+1.6%
Q3 2020+0.9%-0.8%+4.5%
Q2 2020+8.5%+5.8%+6.3%
Q1 2020+11.2%-2.8%+31.6%
Q4 2019+3.9%+0.9%-8.4%
Q3 2019+11.2%+10.9%+6.5%
Q2 2019+15.0%+13.2%-0.1%
Q1 2019-2.2%-1.5%-12.6%
Q4 2018-0.3%+2.0%+0.5%
Q3 2018-3.3%-5.6%+4.2%
Q2 2018-12.0%-13.5%-9.9%
Q1 2018-13.0%-13.5%-5.8%
Q4 2017-15.8%-17.9%-16.4%
Q3 2017+15.2%+11.2%+15.6%
Q2 2017+2.0%+1.5%-3.4%
Q1 2017+1.5%+2.5%+2.1%
Q4 2016+2.1%-0.9%-1.0%
Q3 2016-6.2%-7.8%+8.7%
Q2 2016+11.2%+11.4%+6.5%
Q1 2016+4.5%
Q4 2015-12.6%
Q3 2015-8.5%
Q2 2015-6.7%
Q1 2015+0.4%
Q4 2014+3.6%
Q3 2014-1.2%
Q2 2014+9.8%
Q1 2014-1.9%
Q4 2013-4.9%
Q3 2013-2.4%
Q2 2013+4.0%
Q1 2013+0.8%
Q4 2012-6.0%
Q3 2012+3.2%
Q2 2012-0.6%
Q1 2012+2.6%
Q4 2011-0.7%
Q3 2011-0.0%
Q2 2011-12.4%
Q1 2010+0.5%
Q1 2011-0.1%
Q4 2010-1.1%
Q4 2008-1.1%
Q3 2010+0.0%
Q3 2009+0.0%
Q2 2010-2.9%
Q2 2009-2.9%
Q4 2009-2.9%

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