NYSE$PII

Polaris Industries Inc · Q4 2020 earnings

Q4 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Polaris's Q4 2020 performance reflected a significant increase in sales and net income, driven by strong retail demand and industry tailwinds.

Polaris Inc. reported a strong finish to 2020, with Q4 sales up 24% to $2,156.3 million and net income increasing by 101% to $198.8 million. The growth was fueled by robust retail demand across ORV, Motorcycles, Snowmobiles, and Boats segments. The company's full-year operating cash flow reached a record $1.019 billion, and 2021 sales and adjusted earnings guidance were issued.

  • Reported and adjusted sales for the fourth quarter increased by 24% to $2,156 million.
  • Reported net income for the fourth quarter was $3.15 per share, while adjusted net income was $3.34 per share.
  • North American retail sales increased by 28% during the quarter, with notable strength in ORV, Motorcycles, and Snowmobiles.
  • Gross profit margin for the fourth quarter was 25.5%, representing a 112 basis points increase year-over-year.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$2.16B

Previous: $1.74B+24.2%
EPS (adj)

$3.34

Previous: $1.83+82.5%
Capital Expenditures

$82.1M

Previous: $62M+32.3%
Free Cash Flow

$261M

Previous: $157M+66.3%
Net Income

$199M

Previous: $98.9M+100.9%
Operating Income

$263M

Previous: $136M+92.7%
Gross Profit

$550M

Previous: $423M+29.9%
Cash & Equivalents

$635M

Previous: $157M+304.1%
Total Assets

$4.63B

Previous: $4.43B+4.6%
Stock-Based Comp

$5.9M

Previous: $18.4M-67.9%

Revenue & EPS history

Polaris · Revenue · Quarterly

$2.16B

Q4 2020+24.2%vs Q4 2019
Beat estimate in 13 of 16 quarters(81%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Polaris · $2.25B total across 3 segments · Q3 2023

  • Off-Road
    $1.84B+5.6%
  • On-Road
    $270M-19.1%
  • Marine
    $134M-48.4%

Forward guidance

Polaris anticipates sales to be in the range of $7,950 million to $8,150 million, reflecting a 13% to 16% increase over 2020. Adjusted net income is projected to be between $8.45 and $8.75 per diluted share for the full year 2021.

Tailwinds

  • Sales are expected to increase to the range of $7,950 million to $8,150 million, an increase of 13 percent to 16 percent over 2020 adjusted sales of $7,025 million
  • Adjusted net income is expected to be in the range of $8.45 to $8.75 per diluted share for the full year 2021 compared to adjusted net income of $7.74 per diluted share for 2020.

Headwinds

  • Full year 2021 earnings guidance includes an increase in tariff costs of approximately $40 million for the full year 2021 as exemptions and refunds received in 2020 are not contemplated to continue into 2021.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2020

Historical avgQ4 2020

-1.0%

Avg return

Earnings day

-1.5%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.2%

Avg return

30 days after

41%

28 / 69 earnings

Positive

+15.2%

Q3 2017

Best reaction

-15.8%

Q4 2017

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+8.8%+8.8%+14.9%
Q4 2025-4.4%-7.6%-7.6%
Q3 2025-5.9%-7.1%-6.7%
Q2 2025-2.7%-6.4%-2.6%
Q1 2025+0.3%+3.2%+18.2%
Q4 2024-5.0%-14.9%-12.5%
Q3 2024-13.1%-11.1%-16.5%
Q2 2024-11.2%+0.7%+0.8%
Q1 2024-3.4%-5.0%-6.8%
Q4 2023-3.0%-2.4%+0.0%
Q3 2023-5.6%-7.3%-2.3%
Q2 2023+2.0%+0.2%-17.5%
Q1 2023-3.1%-0.7%-2.9%
Q4 2022+10.5%+10.8%+8.3%
Q3 2022+5.8%+7.8%+19.4%
Q2 2022-1.5%+3.8%+7.8%
Q1 2022-9.0%-11.1%-1.5%
Q4 2021+1.1%+1.9%+7.3%
Q3 2021-7.1%-9.0%-3.1%
Q2 2021-7.4%-5.7%-11.4%
Q1 2021-4.9%-3.4%-8.8%
Q4 2020-1.8%-2.4%+1.6%
Q3 2020+0.9%-0.8%+4.5%
Q2 2020+8.5%+5.8%+6.3%
Q1 2020+11.2%-2.8%+31.6%
Q4 2019+3.9%+0.9%-8.4%
Q3 2019+11.2%+10.9%+6.5%
Q2 2019+15.0%+13.2%-0.1%
Q1 2019-2.2%-1.5%-12.6%
Q4 2018-0.3%+2.0%+0.5%
Q3 2018-3.3%-5.6%+4.2%
Q2 2018-12.0%-13.5%-9.9%
Q1 2018-13.0%-13.5%-5.8%
Q4 2017-15.8%-17.9%-16.4%
Q3 2017+15.2%+11.2%+15.6%
Q2 2017+2.0%+1.5%-3.4%
Q1 2017+1.5%+2.5%+2.1%
Q4 2016+2.1%-0.9%-1.0%
Q3 2016-6.2%-7.8%+8.7%
Q2 2016+11.2%+11.4%+6.5%
Q1 2016+4.5%
Q4 2015-12.6%
Q3 2015-8.5%
Q2 2015-6.7%
Q1 2015+0.4%
Q4 2014+3.6%
Q3 2014-1.2%
Q2 2014+9.8%
Q1 2014-1.9%
Q4 2013-4.9%
Q3 2013-2.4%
Q2 2013+4.0%
Q1 2013+0.8%
Q4 2012-6.0%
Q3 2012+3.2%
Q2 2012-0.6%
Q1 2012+2.6%
Q4 2011-0.7%
Q3 2011-0.0%
Q2 2011-12.4%
Q1 2010+0.5%
Q1 2011-0.1%
Q4 2010-1.1%
Q4 2008-1.1%
Q3 2010+0.0%
Q3 2009+0.0%
Q2 2010-2.9%
Q2 2009-2.9%
Q4 2009-2.9%

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