NYSE$NRG

NRG Energy Inc · Q2 2023 earnings

Q2 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

NRG Energy reported strong financial results driven by customer growth, strong plant operations, and the Vivint Smart Home segment, while also reaffirming its 2023 financial guidance.

NRG Energy reported a solid second quarter with strong financial results, including a GAAP Net Income of $308 million and an Adjusted EBITDA of $819 million. The company benefited from customer growth, strong plant operations, and favorable market conditions. NRG is increasing its 2023 growth contribution target to $60 million from $30 million and delivered impressive monthly recurring service margin.

  • NRG reported a Net Income of $308 million and Adjusted EBITDA of $819 million.
  • The energy business benefited from customer growth, strong plant operations, diversified supply strategy and favorable market conditions
  • Vivint Smart Home segment increased second quarter revenue by 12% and surpassed 2 million customers.
  • NRG completed $200 million in debt reduction and $50 million in share repurchases through July.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$6.35B

Previous: $7.28B-12.8%
EPS (adj)

$1.25

Previous: $2.16-42.1%
Adjusted EBITDA

$819M

Previous: $358M+128.8%
Capital Expenditures

-$324M

Previous: -$150M-116.0%
Free Cash Flow

-$16M

Previous: $363M-104.4%
Net Income

$308M

Previous: $513M-40.0%
Operating Income

$530M

Previous: $754M-29.7%
Gross Profit

$1.39B

Previous: $1.4B-0.6%
Cash & Equivalents

$422M

Previous: $580M-27.2%
Total Assets

$29B

Previous: $34.3B-15.6%
Stock-Based Comp

$31M

Previous: $8M+287.5%

Revenue & EPS history

NRG Energy · Revenue · Quarterly

$6.35B

Q2 2023-12.8%vs Q2 2022
Beat estimate in 8 of 15 quarters(53%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

NRG Energy · $2.52B total across 1 segment · Q2 2023

  • Texas
    $2.52B-6.7%

Forward guidance

NRG is reaffirming its Adjusted EBITDA, Cash provided by operating activities, and FCFbG guidance for 2023.

Tailwinds

  • Adjusted EBITDA: $3,010 - $3,250 million
  • Cash Provided by Operating Activities: $1,610 - $1,850 million
  • FCFbG: $1,620 - $1,860 million
  • Increasing 2023 growth contribution target to $60 million from $30 million
  • The Company expects to reduce its debt by $1.4 billion in 2023 with $900 million funded with cash from operations and $500 million with proceeds from the sale of STP.

Headwinds

  • The Company is unable to provide guidance for Net Income due to the impact of fair value adjustments related to derivatives in a given year.
  • W.A. Parish Unit 8 came offline as a result of damage to the steam turbine/generator and is expected to return to service in late August 2023.
  • The transaction to sell its 44% equity interest in STP is subject to regulatory approvals and is expected to close by the end of 2023.
  • Quarterly results were affected by lower mark-to-market non-cash gains on economic hedge positions in Texas and the East.
  • The company expects lost revenues and expenditures incurred in 2023 to be offset by insurance recoveries.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q2 2023

Historical avgQ2 2023

+0.6%

Avg return

Earnings day

+2.2%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.3%

Avg return

30 days after

44%

32 / 72 earnings

Positive

+26.3%

Q1 2025

Best reaction

-10.1%

Q1 2017

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-4.3%-13.0%-17.9%
Q4 2025-1.6%+1.4%-17.2%
Q3 2025-2.3%-6.0%-5.9%
Q1 2025+26.3%+33.4%+24.9%
Q4 2024+10.6%-2.1%-7.1%
Q3 2024-2.2%-4.1%+3.0%
Q2 2024+11.4%+13.6%+6.2%
Q1 2024-2.7%+7.4%-0.1%
Q4 2023+2.4%+6.8%+25.3%
Q3 2023+2.6%+3.6%+10.3%
Q2 2023-0.8%-2.3%+2.2%
Q1 2023-6.5%-6.4%-0.4%
Q4 2022-4.5%-4.9%-12.1%
Q3 2022-0.2%+2.4%-25.3%
Q2 2022+2.9%+2.6%+11.0%
Q1 2022+9.9%+10.8%+20.6%
Q4 2021+3.1%-0.8%+0.5%
Q3 2021-9.3%-12.8%-8.6%
Q2 2021+5.2%+3.4%+8.8%
Q1 2021-0.5%-0.7%-3.0%
Q4 2020+7.6%+9.1%+3.3%
Q3 2020-4.5%-0.3%+5.5%
Q2 2020+2.1%+4.0%-0.5%
Q1 2020-0.0%-2.2%+12.0%
Q4 2019-5.2%-5.0%-15.7%
Q3 2019-2.9%-2.1%-2.8%
Q2 2019+3.5%+0.0%+11.2%
Q1 2019-2.7%-4.7%-16.1%
Q4 2018+2.9%+1.8%+3.6%
Q3 2018-0.3%+2.6%+5.5%
Q2 2018+2.2%+7.2%+10.9%
Q1 2018+9.3%+11.2%+11.3%
Q4 2017+7.8%+13.0%+18.1%
Q3 2017+11.2%+14.4%+12.5%
Q2 2017-0.1%-0.9%+1.4%
Q1 2017-10.1%-9.8%+0.5%
Q4 2016+0.5%+3.2%+9.5%
Q3 2016+12.3%+18.8%+11.0%
Q2 2016-5.7%-5.9%-8.1%
Q1 2016+6.2%
Q4 2015+1.6%
Q3 2015+0.7%
Q2 2015-10.1%
Q1 2015+4.1%
Q4 2014-5.6%
Q3 2014+9.0%
Q2 2014-1.6%
Q1 2014+3.9%
Q4 2013-0.2%
Q3 2013-2.8%
Q2 2013-3.5%
Q1 2013-1.5%
Q4 2012+0.7%
Q3 2012-2.6%
Q2 2012+6.9%
Q1 2012-6.9%
Q4 2010-2.8%
Q4 2011-2.8%
Q3 2011+2.5%
Q2 2011-6.3%
Q1 2011-0.9%
Q4 2007-5.2%
Q3 2010+0.3%
Q2 2010-2.2%
Q1 2009-3.0%
Q1 2010+1.8%
Q4 2009-5.2%
Q3 2008+1.3%
Q3 2009+1.3%
Q2 2008-1.2%
Q4 2008-1.2%
Q2 2009-1.2%

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