NYSE$NRG

NRG Energy Inc · Q3 2023 earnings

Q3 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

NRG Energy reported solid third quarter performance driven by strong financial and operational results, completed the sale of STP, increased share repurchase allocation, remained on track to achieve debt reduction target, and initiated strong 2024 financial guidance.

NRG Energy reported a solid third quarter with a Net Income of $343 million and Adjusted EBITDA of $973 million. The company is increasing the mid-point of its 2023 Adjusted EBITDA guidance by $95 million. NRG is increasing its 2023 share repurchase allocation from $997 million to $1.15 billion. The company plans to reduce debt by $1.4 billion in 2023.

  • Solid third quarter performance with GAAP Net Income of $343 million and Adjusted EBITDA of $973 million; increasing mid-point of 2023 Adjusted EBITDA guidance by $95 million
  • Completed sale of STP for $1.75 billion
  • Increasing 2023 share repurchase allocation by 15% to $1.15 billion; executed $200 million of share repurchases to date and expect to complete the remaining $950 million through new accelerated share repurchase program
  • On track to achieve 2023 debt reduction target of $1.4 billion; executed $800 million of debt reduction to date and expect to complete remaining $600 million by year-end

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$7.95B

Previous: $8.51B-6.6%
EPS (adj)

$1.41

Previous: $0.29+386.2%
Adjusted EBITDA

$973M

Previous: $452M+115.3%
Capital Expenditures

-$493M

Previous: -$250M-97.2%
Free Cash Flow

-$150M

Previous: -$183M+18.0%
Net Income

$343M

Previous: $67M+411.9%
Operating Income

$561M

Previous: $156M+259.6%
Gross Profit

$1.53B

Previous: $708M+115.4%
Cash & Equivalents

$401M

Previous: $333M+20.4%
Total Assets

$27.9B

Previous: $32.2B-13.4%
Stock-Based Comp

$26M

Previous: $7M+271.4%

Revenue & EPS history

NRG Energy · Revenue · Quarterly

$7.95B

Q3 2023-6.6%vs Q3 2022
Beat estimate in 8 of 15 quarters(53%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

NRG Energy · $6.56B total across 2 segments · Q3 2023

  • Texas
    $3.69B+17.2%
  • East
    $2.88B

Forward guidance

NRG is raising the mid-point of its 2023 Adjusted EBITDA guidance by $95 million and initiated strong 2024 financial guidance above its June 2023 Investor Day plan.

Tailwinds

  • Raising the mid-point of its 2023 Adjusted EBITDA guidance by $95 million
  • Initiating strong 2024 financial guidance above its June 2023 Investor Day plan
  • 2023 Adjusted EBITDA guidance is between $3,150 million and $3,300 million
  • 2023 Cash Provided by Operating Activities guidance is between $1,750 million and $1,900 million
  • 2023 FCFbG guidance is between $1,725 million and $1,875 million

Headwinds

  • Negative impacts of an earnings reduction from the sale of STP
  • Increase in accruals as part of the Company's annual incentive plan reflecting the expected financial outperformance for the year
  • 2024 Adjusted EBITDA guidance is between $3,300 million and $3,550 million
  • 2024 Cash Provided by Operating Activities guidance is between $1,825 million and $2,075 million
  • 2024 FCFbG guidance is between $1,825 million and $2,075 million

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2023

Historical avgQ3 2023

+0.6%

Avg return

Earnings day

+2.2%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.3%

Avg return

30 days after

44%

32 / 72 earnings

Positive

+26.3%

Q1 2025

Best reaction

-10.1%

Q1 2017

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-4.3%-13.0%-17.9%
Q4 2025-1.6%+1.4%-17.2%
Q3 2025-2.3%-6.0%-5.9%
Q1 2025+26.3%+33.4%+24.9%
Q4 2024+10.6%-2.1%-7.1%
Q3 2024-2.2%-4.1%+3.0%
Q2 2024+11.4%+13.6%+6.2%
Q1 2024-2.7%+7.4%-0.1%
Q4 2023+2.4%+6.8%+25.3%
Q3 2023+2.6%+3.6%+10.3%
Q2 2023-0.8%-2.3%+2.2%
Q1 2023-6.5%-6.4%-0.4%
Q4 2022-4.5%-4.9%-12.1%
Q3 2022-0.2%+2.4%-25.3%
Q2 2022+2.9%+2.6%+11.0%
Q1 2022+9.9%+10.8%+20.6%
Q4 2021+3.1%-0.8%+0.5%
Q3 2021-9.3%-12.8%-8.6%
Q2 2021+5.2%+3.4%+8.8%
Q1 2021-0.5%-0.7%-3.0%
Q4 2020+7.6%+9.1%+3.3%
Q3 2020-4.5%-0.3%+5.5%
Q2 2020+2.1%+4.0%-0.5%
Q1 2020-0.0%-2.2%+12.0%
Q4 2019-5.2%-5.0%-15.7%
Q3 2019-2.9%-2.1%-2.8%
Q2 2019+3.5%+0.0%+11.2%
Q1 2019-2.7%-4.7%-16.1%
Q4 2018+2.9%+1.8%+3.6%
Q3 2018-0.3%+2.6%+5.5%
Q2 2018+2.2%+7.2%+10.9%
Q1 2018+9.3%+11.2%+11.3%
Q4 2017+7.8%+13.0%+18.1%
Q3 2017+11.2%+14.4%+12.5%
Q2 2017-0.1%-0.9%+1.4%
Q1 2017-10.1%-9.8%+0.5%
Q4 2016+0.5%+3.2%+9.5%
Q3 2016+12.3%+18.8%+11.0%
Q2 2016-5.7%-5.9%-8.1%
Q1 2016+6.2%
Q4 2015+1.6%
Q3 2015+0.7%
Q2 2015-10.1%
Q1 2015+4.1%
Q4 2014-5.6%
Q3 2014+9.0%
Q2 2014-1.6%
Q1 2014+3.9%
Q4 2013-0.2%
Q3 2013-2.8%
Q2 2013-3.5%
Q1 2013-1.5%
Q4 2012+0.7%
Q3 2012-2.6%
Q2 2012+6.9%
Q1 2012-6.9%
Q4 2010-2.8%
Q4 2011-2.8%
Q3 2011+2.5%
Q2 2011-6.3%
Q1 2011-0.9%
Q4 2007-5.2%
Q3 2010+0.3%
Q2 2010-2.2%
Q1 2009-3.0%
Q1 2010+1.8%
Q4 2009-5.2%
Q3 2008+1.3%
Q3 2009+1.3%
Q2 2008-1.2%
Q4 2008-1.2%
Q2 2009-1.2%

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