NYSE$NRG

NRG Energy Inc · Q3 2022 earnings

Q3 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

NRG Energy reported third quarter results with a net income of $67 million and Adjusted EBITDA of $452 million.

NRG Energy reported a third quarter 2022 Net Income of $67 million, or $0.29 per diluted common share, and Adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter of $452 million. The company made significant progress on its key strategic priorities and the platform performed well during extreme Summer conditions.

  • Narrowing 2022 Adjusted EBITDA guidance and initiating 2023 financial guidance
  • Executing current $1 billion share repurchase program; $397 million remaining to be completed
  • Announcing 2023 capital allocation: $600 million incremental share repurchase program; 8% increase in annual dividend; $331 million growth/other
  • The company entered into a definitive purchase agreement to sell land and related assets from the Astoria site for initial proceeds of $212 million.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$8.51B

Previous: $6.61B+28.8%
EPS (adj)

$0.29

Previous: $6.60-95.6%
Adjusted EBITDA

$452M

Previous: $767M-41.1%
Capital Expenditures

-$250M

Previous: -$219M-14.2%
Free Cash Flow

-$183M

Previous: $1.4B-113.1%
Net Income

$67M

Previous: $1.62B-95.9%
Operating Income

$156M

Previous: $2.32B-93.3%
Gross Profit

$708M

Previous: $2.92B-75.7%
Cash & Equivalents

$333M

Previous: $259M+28.6%
Total Assets

$32.2B

Previous: $28B+15.3%
Stock-Based Comp

$7M

Previous: $6M+16.7%

Revenue & EPS history

NRG Energy · Revenue · Quarterly

$8.51B

Q3 2022+28.8%vs Q3 2021
Beat estimate in 8 of 15 quarters(53%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

NRG Energy · $3.15B total across 1 segment · Q3 2022

  • Texas
    $3.15B+19.3%

Forward guidance

NRG is narrowing its 2022 Adjusted EBITDA as well as narrowing and adjusting down the 2022 FCFbG guidance, and is initiating guidance for the 2023 fiscal year. 2022 FCFbG guidance has been reduced as a result of increasing natural gas and coal inventories.

Tailwinds

  • Adjusted EBITDA 2022 Guidance: $1,950 - $2,050 million
  • Adjusted EBITDA 2023 Guidance: $2,270 - $2,470 million
  • Cash provided by Operating Activities 2022 Guidance: $1,230 - $1,330 million
  • Cash provided by Operating Activities 2023 Guidance: $1,925 - $2,125 million
  • FCFbG 2023 Guidance: $1,520 - $1,720 million

Headwinds

  • 2022 FCFbG guidance has been reduced as a result of increasing natural gas and coal inventories
  • The impact of higher commodities prices on working capital
  • W.A. Parish Unit 8 came offline as a result of damage to certain components of the steam turbine/generator
  • The Company continues to target the return to service of the unit by the end of the second quarter of 2023
  • Recorded an impairment of $43 million in the third quarter of 2022.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2022

Historical avgQ3 2022

+0.6%

Avg return

Earnings day

+2.2%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.3%

Avg return

30 days after

44%

32 / 72 earnings

Positive

+26.3%

Q1 2025

Best reaction

-10.1%

Q1 2017

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-4.3%-13.0%-17.9%
Q4 2025-1.6%+1.4%-17.2%
Q3 2025-2.3%-6.0%-5.9%
Q1 2025+26.3%+33.4%+24.9%
Q4 2024+10.6%-2.1%-7.1%
Q3 2024-2.2%-4.1%+3.0%
Q2 2024+11.4%+13.6%+6.2%
Q1 2024-2.7%+7.4%-0.1%
Q4 2023+2.4%+6.8%+25.3%
Q3 2023+2.6%+3.6%+10.3%
Q2 2023-0.8%-2.3%+2.2%
Q1 2023-6.5%-6.4%-0.4%
Q4 2022-4.5%-4.9%-12.1%
Q3 2022-0.2%+2.4%-25.3%
Q2 2022+2.9%+2.6%+11.0%
Q1 2022+9.9%+10.8%+20.6%
Q4 2021+3.1%-0.8%+0.5%
Q3 2021-9.3%-12.8%-8.6%
Q2 2021+5.2%+3.4%+8.8%
Q1 2021-0.5%-0.7%-3.0%
Q4 2020+7.6%+9.1%+3.3%
Q3 2020-4.5%-0.3%+5.5%
Q2 2020+2.1%+4.0%-0.5%
Q1 2020-0.0%-2.2%+12.0%
Q4 2019-5.2%-5.0%-15.7%
Q3 2019-2.9%-2.1%-2.8%
Q2 2019+3.5%+0.0%+11.2%
Q1 2019-2.7%-4.7%-16.1%
Q4 2018+2.9%+1.8%+3.6%
Q3 2018-0.3%+2.6%+5.5%
Q2 2018+2.2%+7.2%+10.9%
Q1 2018+9.3%+11.2%+11.3%
Q4 2017+7.8%+13.0%+18.1%
Q3 2017+11.2%+14.4%+12.5%
Q2 2017-0.1%-0.9%+1.4%
Q1 2017-10.1%-9.8%+0.5%
Q4 2016+0.5%+3.2%+9.5%
Q3 2016+12.3%+18.8%+11.0%
Q2 2016-5.7%-5.9%-8.1%
Q1 2016+6.2%
Q4 2015+1.6%
Q3 2015+0.7%
Q2 2015-10.1%
Q1 2015+4.1%
Q4 2014-5.6%
Q3 2014+9.0%
Q2 2014-1.6%
Q1 2014+3.9%
Q4 2013-0.2%
Q3 2013-2.8%
Q2 2013-3.5%
Q1 2013-1.5%
Q4 2012+0.7%
Q3 2012-2.6%
Q2 2012+6.9%
Q1 2012-6.9%
Q4 2010-2.8%
Q4 2011-2.8%
Q3 2011+2.5%
Q2 2011-6.3%
Q1 2011-0.9%
Q4 2007-5.2%
Q3 2010+0.3%
Q2 2010-2.2%
Q1 2009-3.0%
Q1 2010+1.8%
Q4 2009-5.2%
Q3 2008+1.3%
Q3 2009+1.3%
Q2 2008-1.2%
Q4 2008-1.2%
Q2 2009-1.2%

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