NYSE$MTUS

Metallus Inc · Q4 2023 earnings

Q4 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Metallus reported mixed results for Q4 2023, with a decrease in net sales compared to the previous quarter but an increase compared to the same quarter last year, alongside a slight net income.

Metallus reported Q4 2023 net sales of $328.1 million and a net income of $1.3 million, or $0.03 per diluted share. Adjusted net income was $16.5 million, or $0.36 per diluted share, and adjusted EBITDA was $35.7 million. The company saw a decrease in net sales compared to the previous quarter, but an increase compared to Q4 2022.

  • Net sales reached $328.1 million, a 7% decrease sequentially but a 34% increase year-over-year.
  • Net income was $1.3 million, or $0.03 per diluted share.
  • Adjusted net income stood at $16.5 million, or $0.36 per diluted share.
  • Operating cash flow totaled $74.1 million driven by profitability and lower working capital.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$328M

Previous: $245M+33.7%
EPS (adj)

$0.36

Previous: -$0.09+500.0%
Ship Tons

157.6K

Previous: 128.3K+22.8%
Capital Expenditures

-$15.4M

No prior period
Net Income

$1.3M

Previous: -$33.2M+103.9%
Operating Income

$1.6M

Previous: -$5.3M+130.2%
Gross Profit

$41.4M

Previous: -$20.3M+303.9%
Stock-Based Comp

$3M

Previous: $2.3M+30.4%

Revenue & EPS history

Metallus · Revenue · Quarterly

$328M

Q4 2023+33.7%vs Q4 2022
Beat estimate in 9 of 15 quarters(60%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Metallus · $214M total across 3 segments · Q3 2023

  • Industrial
    $174M+19.0%
  • Energy
    $35.6M-1.1%
  • Other
    $4.8M+0.0%

Forward guidance

The company expects first-quarter 2024 adjusted EBITDA to be slightly lower than the fourth quarter of 2023.

Tailwinds

  • First-quarter shipments are expected to be slightly lower than the fourth quarter of 2023 with continued strength in aerospace & defense demand.
  • Lead times for bar products currently extend to April and tube product lead times extend to May.
  • Annual price agreement negotiations covering approximately 65 percent of the order book are complete with 2024 average base price per ton for customers covered by annual agreements expected to be similar to average base price per ton for the full-year 2023, mix dependent.
  • Surcharge revenue per ton is expected to be sequentially higher in the first quarter.
  • Manufacturing costs are expected to sequentially decline in the first quarter given the completion of approximately $10 million of annual melt shop shutdown maintenance in the fourth quarter of 2023.

Headwinds

  • Price/mix is expected to be unfavorable on a sequential basis in the first quarter given that the fourth quarter of 2023 included approximately $11 million of full-year retroactive price increases.
  • Pension expense in 2024 is anticipated to be similar to 2023, excluding the impact of remeasurements.
  • Required cash pension contributions are approximately $40 million in 2024, with approximately $25 million of contributions required in the first quarter.
  • An effective income tax rate of approximately 25 to 28 percent is expected in 2024.
  • Planned capital expenditures are approximately $60 million in 2024.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2023

Historical avgQ4 2023

+1.6%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.7%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.8%

Avg return

30 days after

42%

22 / 52 earnings

Positive

+80.9%

Q4 2015

Best reaction

-16.6%

Q4 2025

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+1.0%-0.6%+8.3%
Q4 2025-16.6%-18.1%-29.2%
Q3 2025-1.7%-6.8%+0.9%
Q1 2025-11.1%+2.5%+7.4%
Q4 2024-8.0%-10.6%-13.4%
Q3 2024-4.1%-3.6%+0.4%
Q2 2024-8.6%-12.6%-20.5%
Q1 2024+10.7%+11.3%+9.6%
Q4 2023-0.2%+1.3%+9.1%
Q3 2023-2.5%+0.0%+1.8%
Q2 2023-9.6%-6.3%-3.3%
Q1 2023+5.4%+6.9%+12.0%
Q4 2022+1.7%+1.0%-0.9%
Q3 2022+12.2%+14.1%+16.4%
Q2 2022-2.9%-1.1%-12.1%
Q1 2022-9.5%-13.8%+18.5%
Q4 2021+14.3%+16.2%+56.3%
Q3 2021+5.3%+10.2%+0.6%
Q2 2021+12.0%+31.8%+4.2%
Q1 2021+0.2%+11.1%+15.5%
Q4 2020-4.4%-0.7%+28.4%
Q3 2020+1.8%+15.5%+29.2%
Q2 2020+2.7%+5.9%-8.7%
Q1 2020+30.0%+26.2%+70.8%
Q4 2019-5.9%-7.8%-41.0%
Q3 2019+13.2%-13.9%+8.7%
Q2 2019-3.0%-9.9%-25.3%
Q1 2019+6.7%-1.7%-28.8%
Q4 2018+12.0%+3.1%-15.3%
Q3 2018+15.4%+5.4%+0.5%
Q2 2018-14.9%-23.8%-23.6%
Q1 2018+0.6%-2.2%+1.9%
Q4 2017-11.2%-14.3%-12.7%
Q3 2017-12.4%-22.1%-17.6%
Q2 2017-2.0%+1.1%-5.7%
Q1 2017-8.3%-9.9%-16.6%
Q4 2016+13.9%+20.0%+11.7%
Q3 2016-4.2%-7.9%+48.7%
Q2 2016-15.0%-22.7%-15.7%
Q1 2016-1.4%
Q4 2015+80.9%
Q3 2015-2.8%
Q2 2015-6.5%
Q1 2014+1.9%
Q1 2015+6.7%
Q4 2014-3.4%
Q4 2012-3.4%
Q3 2013-0.6%
Q3 2014-0.3%
Q4 2013-1.9%
Q2 2013-1.9%
Q2 2014+10.4%
Q1 2013

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