NYSE$MTUS

Metallus Inc · Q3 2023 earnings

Q3 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

TimkenSteel's financial performance remained solid, marked by a slight decrease in net sales but sustained profitability.

TimkenSteel reported third-quarter 2023 net sales of $354.2 million and net income of $24.8 million, or $0.51 per diluted share. The company's performance reflects solid profitability despite market challenges, including automotive work stoppages. The company also deployed cash for capital expenditures and share repurchases.

  • Net sales reached $354.2 million, with a net income of $24.8 million.
  • Operating cash flow was $28.1 million, and cash and cash equivalents stood at $225.4 million at the end of September.
  • The company deployed $17.5 million in capital expenditures and $7.7 million to repurchase common shares.
  • Ship tons decreased slightly to 175,800, driven by lower energy shipments, offset by higher industrial shipments.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$354M

Previous: $317M+11.8%
EPS (adj)

$0.52

Previous: -$0.09+677.8%
Ship Tons

175.8K

Previous: 158.5K+10.9%
Melt Utilization

76.0%

Previous: 40.0%+90.0%
Capital Expenditures

-$36.2M

Previous: -$15.7M-130.6%
Free Cash Flow

-$11.4M

Previous: -$29M+60.7%
Net Income

$24.8M

Previous: -$13.3M+286.5%
Operating Income

$30.8M

Previous: -$8.7M+454.0%
Gross Profit

$51M

Previous: $5.6M+810.7%
Cash & Equivalents

$225M

Previous: $263M-14.1%
Total Assets

$1.15B

Previous: $1.12B+2.8%
Stock-Based Comp

$3M

Previous: $2.2M+36.4%

Revenue & EPS history

Metallus · Revenue · Quarterly

$354M

Q3 2023+11.8%vs Q3 2022
Beat estimate in 9 of 15 quarters(60%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Metallus · $214M total across 3 segments · Q3 2023

  • Industrial
    $174M+19.0%
  • Energy
    $35.6M-1.1%
  • Other
    $4.8M+0.0%

Forward guidance

The company expects adjusted EBITDA to decline sequentially in the fourth quarter of 2023 due to lower shipments and surcharge revenue.

Tailwinds

  • Base price per ton is anticipated to remain strong in the fourth quarter.
  • Operating cash flow is expected to be positive in the fourth quarter, primarily driven by anticipated profitability and working capital discipline.
  • Planned capital expenditures are expected to be approximately $50 million in 2023, consistent with previous guidance.
  • Lead times for bar products currently extend to mid-December 2023.
  • Tube product lead times extend into February 2024.

Headwinds

  • Fourth quarter shipments are expected to be sequentially lower as a result of normal seasonality and potential volatility from the automotive work stoppages and restarts.
  • Surcharge revenue per ton is expected to be sequentially lower in the fourth quarter.
  • Planned annual shutdown maintenance was completed at the melt shop in October at a cost of approximately $7 million.
  • The company expects a sequential decrease in the average melt utilization rate in the fourth quarter.
  • Market dynamics such as the automotive work stoppages

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2023

Historical avgQ3 2023

+1.6%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.7%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.8%

Avg return

30 days after

42%

22 / 52 earnings

Positive

+80.9%

Q4 2015

Best reaction

-16.6%

Q4 2025

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+1.0%-0.6%+8.3%
Q4 2025-16.6%-18.1%-29.2%
Q3 2025-1.7%-6.8%+0.9%
Q1 2025-11.1%+2.5%+7.4%
Q4 2024-8.0%-10.6%-13.4%
Q3 2024-4.1%-3.6%+0.4%
Q2 2024-8.6%-12.6%-20.5%
Q1 2024+10.7%+11.3%+9.6%
Q4 2023-0.2%+1.3%+9.1%
Q3 2023-2.5%+0.0%+1.8%
Q2 2023-9.6%-6.3%-3.3%
Q1 2023+5.4%+6.9%+12.0%
Q4 2022+1.7%+1.0%-0.9%
Q3 2022+12.2%+14.1%+16.4%
Q2 2022-2.9%-1.1%-12.1%
Q1 2022-9.5%-13.8%+18.5%
Q4 2021+14.3%+16.2%+56.3%
Q3 2021+5.3%+10.2%+0.6%
Q2 2021+12.0%+31.8%+4.2%
Q1 2021+0.2%+11.1%+15.5%
Q4 2020-4.4%-0.7%+28.4%
Q3 2020+1.8%+15.5%+29.2%
Q2 2020+2.7%+5.9%-8.7%
Q1 2020+30.0%+26.2%+70.8%
Q4 2019-5.9%-7.8%-41.0%
Q3 2019+13.2%-13.9%+8.7%
Q2 2019-3.0%-9.9%-25.3%
Q1 2019+6.7%-1.7%-28.8%
Q4 2018+12.0%+3.1%-15.3%
Q3 2018+15.4%+5.4%+0.5%
Q2 2018-14.9%-23.8%-23.6%
Q1 2018+0.6%-2.2%+1.9%
Q4 2017-11.2%-14.3%-12.7%
Q3 2017-12.4%-22.1%-17.6%
Q2 2017-2.0%+1.1%-5.7%
Q1 2017-8.3%-9.9%-16.6%
Q4 2016+13.9%+20.0%+11.7%
Q3 2016-4.2%-7.9%+48.7%
Q2 2016-15.0%-22.7%-15.7%
Q1 2016-1.4%
Q4 2015+80.9%
Q3 2015-2.8%
Q2 2015-6.5%
Q1 2014+1.9%
Q1 2015+6.7%
Q4 2014-3.4%
Q4 2012-3.4%
Q3 2013-0.6%
Q3 2014-0.3%
Q4 2013-1.9%
Q2 2013-1.9%
Q2 2014+10.4%
Q1 2013

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