NYSE$MTUS

Metallus Inc · Q4 2021 earnings

Q4 2021 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

TimkenSteel reported strong profitability and significant operating cash flow due to robust customer demand and efforts to improve commercial effectiveness, enhance manufacturing efficiency, and streamline business processes.

TimkenSteel announced fourth-quarter 2021 net sales of $338.3 million and net income of $57.1 million, or $1.07 per diluted share. On an adjusted basis, fourth-quarter 2021 net income was $42.3 million, or $0.80 per diluted share, and adjusted EBITDA was $62.1 million.

  • Net sales of $338.3 million in the fourth-quarter reflect strength in customer demand
  • Fourth-quarter net income of $57.1 million
  • Full-year 2021 operating cash flow of $196.9 million, including $90.7 million in the fourth-quarter
  • Customer demand remained strong, as evidenced by a full order book in the first-half of 2022.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$338M

Previous: $211M+60.2%
EPS (adj)

$0.80

Previous: $0.01+7900.0%
Ship Tons

198.3K

Previous: 164.0K+20.9%
Melt Utilization

71.0%

No prior period
Free Cash Flow

$85.8M

No prior period
Net Income

$57.1M

Previous: -$12.8M+546.1%
Operating Income

$61.9M

No prior period
Gross Profit

$52.4M

Previous: $14.2M+269.0%
Cash & Equivalents

$260M

Previous: $103M+152.5%
Total Assets

$1.16B

Previous: $994M+16.6%
Stock-Based Comp

$1.8M

Previous: $1.4M+28.6%

Revenue & EPS history

Metallus · Revenue · Quarterly

$338M

Q4 2021+60.2%vs Q4 2020
Beat estimate in 10 of 15 quarters(67%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Metallus · $210M total across 3 segments · Q4 2021

  • Industrial
    $181M+101.7%
  • Energy
    $21.5M+235.9%
  • Other
    $8M+33.3%

Forward guidance

Customer demand remains strong, as evidenced by a full order book in the first-half of 2022. Ship tons in the first-quarter of 2022 are expected to be down slightly from the fourth-quarter of 2021. Melt utilization is expected to be at or above 80 percent during the first-quarter.

Tailwinds

  • Customer demand remains strong, as evidenced by a full order book in the first-half of 2022.
  • Price agreement negotiations are nearly complete with customers and represent approximately 70 percent of the 2022 order book with a meaningful increase in base prices compared with 2021 average base prices.
  • Melt utilization is expected to be at or above 80 percent during the first-quarter.
  • Customer demand remains strong
  • Price agreement negotiations are nearly complete

Headwinds

  • Ship tons in the first-quarter of 2022 are expected to be down slightly from the fourth-quarter of 2021.
  • Surcharge revenue per ton is expected to decline in the first-quarter of 2022 as a result of a lower No. 1 busheling scrap index compared with the fourth-quarter of 2021.
  • Periodic customer manufacturing outages due to supply chain disruption may continue to negatively impact mobile shipments.
  • Inflationary pressure is anticipated on commodities and consumables.
  • Operating cash flow is expected to be near breakeven in the first-quarter of 2022 primarily driven by higher working capital and the cash payment of approximately $19 million of variable compensation earned in 2021.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2021

Historical avgQ4 2021

+1.6%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.7%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.8%

Avg return

30 days after

42%

22 / 52 earnings

Positive

+80.9%

Q4 2015

Best reaction

-16.6%

Q4 2025

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+1.0%-0.6%+8.3%
Q4 2025-16.6%-18.1%-29.2%
Q3 2025-1.7%-6.8%+0.9%
Q1 2025-11.1%+2.5%+7.4%
Q4 2024-8.0%-10.6%-13.4%
Q3 2024-4.1%-3.6%+0.4%
Q2 2024-8.6%-12.6%-20.5%
Q1 2024+10.7%+11.3%+9.6%
Q4 2023-0.2%+1.3%+9.1%
Q3 2023-2.5%+0.0%+1.8%
Q2 2023-9.6%-6.3%-3.3%
Q1 2023+5.4%+6.9%+12.0%
Q4 2022+1.7%+1.0%-0.9%
Q3 2022+12.2%+14.1%+16.4%
Q2 2022-2.9%-1.1%-12.1%
Q1 2022-9.5%-13.8%+18.5%
Q4 2021+14.3%+16.2%+56.3%
Q3 2021+5.3%+10.2%+0.6%
Q2 2021+12.0%+31.8%+4.2%
Q1 2021+0.2%+11.1%+15.5%
Q4 2020-4.4%-0.7%+28.4%
Q3 2020+1.8%+15.5%+29.2%
Q2 2020+2.7%+5.9%-8.7%
Q1 2020+30.0%+26.2%+70.8%
Q4 2019-5.9%-7.8%-41.0%
Q3 2019+13.2%-13.9%+8.7%
Q2 2019-3.0%-9.9%-25.3%
Q1 2019+6.7%-1.7%-28.8%
Q4 2018+12.0%+3.1%-15.3%
Q3 2018+15.4%+5.4%+0.5%
Q2 2018-14.9%-23.8%-23.6%
Q1 2018+0.6%-2.2%+1.9%
Q4 2017-11.2%-14.3%-12.7%
Q3 2017-12.4%-22.1%-17.6%
Q2 2017-2.0%+1.1%-5.7%
Q1 2017-8.3%-9.9%-16.6%
Q4 2016+13.9%+20.0%+11.7%
Q3 2016-4.2%-7.9%+48.7%
Q2 2016-15.0%-22.7%-15.7%
Q1 2016-1.4%
Q4 2015+80.9%
Q3 2015-2.8%
Q2 2015-6.5%
Q1 2014+1.9%
Q1 2015+6.7%
Q4 2014-3.4%
Q4 2012-3.4%
Q3 2013-0.6%
Q3 2014-0.3%
Q4 2013-1.9%
Q2 2013-1.9%
Q2 2014+10.4%
Q1 2013

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