NYSE$MTUS

Metallus Inc · Q4 2020 earnings

Q4 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported a net loss with increased net sales due to rebound in automotive demand and improved manufacturing costs.

TimkenSteel reported a net sales increase of 3% compared to the previous quarter, driven by a rebound in automotive demand. The company's manufacturing costs improved due to higher melt utilization and cost reduction actions. Net loss for the quarter was $12.8 million, with an adjusted EBITDA of $20.7 million.

  • Net sales increased 3% compared with the third quarter of 2020, driven primarily by a continued rebound in automotive demand.
  • Ship tons increased 6% sequentially as a result of higher automotive and industrial shipments.
  • Manufacturing costs improved sequentially as a result of higher melt utilization and the timing of the planned annual maintenance shutdown that occurred in the third quarter of 2020.
  • Total liquidity was $314.1 million as of December 31, 2020, an improvement of $34.1 million from September 30, 2020 and $83.8 million from December 31, 2019.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$211M

Previous: $227M-6.9%
EPS (adj)

$0.01

Previous: -$0.61+101.6%
Ship Tons

164.0K

Previous: 179.7K-8.7%
Net Income

-$12.8M

Previous: -$84.6M+84.9%
Gross Profit

$14.2M

Previous: -$18M+178.9%
Cash & Equivalents

$103M

Previous: $27.1M+279.3%
Total Assets

$994M

Previous: $1.09B-8.4%
Stock-Based Comp

$1.4M

Previous: $2.2M-36.4%

Revenue & EPS history

Metallus · Revenue · Quarterly

$211M

Q4 2020-6.9%vs Q4 2019
Beat estimate in 8 of 15 quarters(53%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Metallus · $102M total across 3 segments · Q4 2020

  • Industrial
    $89.7M
  • Energy
    $6.4M
  • Other
    $6M

Forward guidance

Given the extent and uncertainty of the impact of COVID-19 on the economy and TimkenSteel’s customers, the company is not providing quantitative earnings guidance for the first quarter of 2021. We are, however, encouraged by recent improvements in automotive and industrial end market demand.

Headwinds

  • Cash from operating activities to be a use of cash in the first quarter of 2021 given improving demand and the rise in raw material prices.
  • Capital expenditures to be approximately $20 million in 2021.
  • Required pension contributions to be modest at $1 million to $2 million in 2021.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2020

Historical avgQ4 2020

+1.6%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.7%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.8%

Avg return

30 days after

42%

22 / 52 earnings

Positive

+80.9%

Q4 2015

Best reaction

-16.6%

Q4 2025

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+1.0%-0.6%+8.3%
Q4 2025-16.6%-18.1%-29.2%
Q3 2025-1.7%-6.8%+0.9%
Q1 2025-11.1%+2.5%+7.4%
Q4 2024-8.0%-10.6%-13.4%
Q3 2024-4.1%-3.6%+0.4%
Q2 2024-8.6%-12.6%-20.5%
Q1 2024+10.7%+11.3%+9.6%
Q4 2023-0.2%+1.3%+9.1%
Q3 2023-2.5%+0.0%+1.8%
Q2 2023-9.6%-6.3%-3.3%
Q1 2023+5.4%+6.9%+12.0%
Q4 2022+1.7%+1.0%-0.9%
Q3 2022+12.2%+14.1%+16.4%
Q2 2022-2.9%-1.1%-12.1%
Q1 2022-9.5%-13.8%+18.5%
Q4 2021+14.3%+16.2%+56.3%
Q3 2021+5.3%+10.2%+0.6%
Q2 2021+12.0%+31.8%+4.2%
Q1 2021+0.2%+11.1%+15.5%
Q4 2020-4.4%-0.7%+28.4%
Q3 2020+1.8%+15.5%+29.2%
Q2 2020+2.7%+5.9%-8.7%
Q1 2020+30.0%+26.2%+70.8%
Q4 2019-5.9%-7.8%-41.0%
Q3 2019+13.2%-13.9%+8.7%
Q2 2019-3.0%-9.9%-25.3%
Q1 2019+6.7%-1.7%-28.8%
Q4 2018+12.0%+3.1%-15.3%
Q3 2018+15.4%+5.4%+0.5%
Q2 2018-14.9%-23.8%-23.6%
Q1 2018+0.6%-2.2%+1.9%
Q4 2017-11.2%-14.3%-12.7%
Q3 2017-12.4%-22.1%-17.6%
Q2 2017-2.0%+1.1%-5.7%
Q1 2017-8.3%-9.9%-16.6%
Q4 2016+13.9%+20.0%+11.7%
Q3 2016-4.2%-7.9%+48.7%
Q2 2016-15.0%-22.7%-15.7%
Q1 2016-1.4%
Q4 2015+80.9%
Q3 2015-2.8%
Q2 2015-6.5%
Q1 2014+1.9%
Q1 2015+6.7%
Q4 2014-3.4%
Q4 2012-3.4%
Q3 2013-0.6%
Q3 2014-0.3%
Q4 2013-1.9%
Q2 2013-1.9%
Q2 2014+10.4%
Q1 2013

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