NYSE$MCY

Mercury General Corporation · Q1 2024 earnings

Q1 2024 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Mercury General reported a profitable first quarter with a significant increase in net income and operating income compared to the previous year. The company benefited from increased net premiums earned and net investment income, while managing catastrophe losses and improving its combined ratio.

Mercury General Corporation reported a strong first quarter with a net income of $73.46 million, a significant turnaround from the $45.29 million loss in the same period last year. Operating income also improved substantially to $43.29 million from a loss of $84.00 million. The combined ratio improved to 100.9% from 115.8% year-over-year, driven by higher net premiums earned and lower catastrophe losses.

  • Net income was $73.46 million, a significant improvement from the $45.29 million loss in Q1 2023.
  • Operating income increased to $43.29 million, compared to a loss of $84.00 million in the prior year.
  • The combined ratio improved to 100.9%, driven by higher net premiums earned and lower catastrophe losses.
  • Rate increases approved in California for both private passenger automobile and homeowners insurance lines are expected to positively impact future results.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$1.27B

Previous: $1.11B+15.1%
EPS

$1.33

Previous: -$1.52+187.5%
Combined ratio

100.9%

Previous: 115.8%-12.9%
Catastrophe losses net of reinsurance

$72M

Previous: $98M-26.5%
Net premiums written

$1.28B

No prior period
Loss ratio

77.5%

No prior period
Expense ratio

23.4%

No prior period
Net realized investment gains, net of tax

$38.2M

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

-$10.3M

No prior period
Free Cash Flow

$73.5M

Previous: -$45.3M+262.2%
Net Income

$73.5M

Previous: -$45.3M+262.2%
Operating Income

-$183M

Previous: -$295M+38.0%
Gross Profit

$1.27B

Previous: $1.1B+15.1%

Revenue & EPS history

Mercury General · Revenue · Quarterly

$1.27B

Q1 2024+15.1%vs Q1 2023
Beat estimate in 8 of 15 quarters(53%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Mercury General · $1.16B total across 3 segments · Q3 2023

  • Net premiums earned
    $1.09B+9.4%
  • Net investment income
    $61M+57.7%
  • Other
    $3.92M+30.7%

Forward guidance

Mercury General is implementing rate and non-rate actions to improve underwriting results. Rate increases approved by the California Department of Insurance are expected to positively impact future results.

Tailwinds

  • Rate increases of 22.5% and 3.8% on the private passenger automobile line of insurance business for Mercury Insurance Company (MIC) and California Automobile Insurance Company (CAIC), respectively, were approved and became effective in February 2024.
  • A 6.99% rate increase on the California homeowners line of insurance business was approved in March 2024 and is expected to become effective in May 2024.
  • Higher net investment income due to higher average yield combined with higher average invested assets and cash.
  • The company is focused on improving underwriting results through rate and non-rate actions.
  • Favorable development of approximately $6 million on prior accident years’ loss and loss adjustment expense reserves.

Headwinds

  • Rate increases take time to earn in.
  • The majority of 2024 catastrophe losses resulted from winter storms and rainstorms in California and convective storms in Texas and Oklahoma.
  • Unfavorable development on prior years’ catastrophe losses partially offset favorable development on loss adjustment expenses.
  • The presence of competitors with greater financial resources and the impact of competitive pricing and marketing efforts.
  • General economic conditions, including inflation and market risks associated with the company’s investment portfolio, could impact future performance.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2024

Historical avgQ1 2024

-0.1%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.6%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.0%

Avg return

30 days after

46%

31 / 68 earnings

Positive

+23.8%

Q3 2023

Best reaction

-14.2%

Q2 2022

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-2.1%+1.3%+4.0%
Q4 2025-9.2%-12.9%-9.7%
Q3 2025+2.1%+7.8%+12.8%
Q1 2025-4.0%+2.6%+11.0%
Q4 2024+9.3%+9.4%+14.3%
Q3 2024+5.9%-3.3%+16.2%
Q2 2024+2.3%+0.9%+13.1%
Q1 2024+2.2%+3.0%+5.4%
Q4 2023+6.2%+25.6%+17.6%
Q3 2023+23.8%+20.1%+22.8%
Q2 2023-5.3%-5.1%-11.1%
Q1 2023-3.7%-2.8%-2.3%
Q4 2022-6.2%-0.4%-14.7%
Q3 2022+14.0%+26.8%+24.0%
Q2 2022-14.2%-21.2%-21.3%
Q1 2022+3.4%+1.3%-3.8%
Q4 2021+1.9%+4.9%+0.9%
Q3 2021+2.0%+0.1%-6.3%
Q2 2021-3.1%-1.8%-3.9%
Q1 2021+3.8%+4.8%-2.3%
Q4 2020+1.6%+2.8%+9.6%
Q3 2020-0.3%+1.2%+9.5%
Q2 2020+0.0%+6.2%+6.3%
Q1 2020-6.4%-9.7%+7.2%
Q4 2019+5.6%+5.8%-20.3%
Q3 2019-10.3%-8.9%-7.3%
Q2 2019-7.8%-9.6%-15.6%
Q1 2019+1.3%+6.0%+7.3%
Q4 2018-4.7%+0.7%-5.7%
Q3 2018+20.9%+18.6%+9.1%
Q2 2018+13.6%+15.4%+19.9%
Q1 2018-8.3%-8.3%-2.4%
Q4 2017-13.0%-12.0%-5.3%
Q3 2017-0.1%-1.0%-2.4%
Q2 2017+5.7%+6.1%+1.8%
Q1 2017-7.0%-7.9%-8.9%
Q4 2016-6.3%-9.3%-6.4%
Q3 2016+11.2%+8.7%+15.8%
Q2 2016-3.9%-4.9%-1.9%
Q1 2016-1.0%
Q4 2015+7.5%
Q3 2015-3.5%
Q2 2015-0.9%
Q1 2015-3.5%
Q4 2014-11.8%
Q3 2014+3.9%
Q2 2014+4.4%
Q1 2014+0.8%
Q4 2013-5.2%
Q3 2013-4.6%
Q2 2013-3.2%
Q1 2013+7.7%
Q4 2012-6.4%
Q3 2012+1.3%
Q2 2012-11.3%
Q1 2012+0.0%
Q4 2011-1.2%
Q3 2011+4.2%
Q2 2011-2.8%
Q1 2010-1.4%
Q1 2011+1.0%
Q4 2008-0.1%
Q4 2010-0.1%
Q3 2010+0.1%
Q3 2009+0.1%
Q2 2009-0.4%
Q2 2010-0.4%
Q4 2009-0.4%

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