NYSE$LW

Lamb Weston Holdings Inc · Q4 2023 earnings

Q4 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Lamb Weston's financial performance improved significantly due to pricing actions and the consolidation of LW EMEA, partially offset by higher costs.

Lamb Weston reported a strong fiscal fourth quarter with a 47% increase in net sales and a significant rise in net income, driven by pricing actions and the consolidation of LW EMEA. The company's performance was partially offset by higher costs and softening restaurant traffic.

  • Net sales increased 47% to $1,695 million, including $381 million from acquisitions.
  • Diluted EPS increased to $3.40 from $0.22.
  • Adjusted Diluted EPS increased to $1.22 from $0.64.
  • The company provides FY24 sales outlook of $6.7 to $6.9 billion.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$1.7B

Previous: $1.15B+47.0%
EPS (adj)

$1.22

Previous: $0.65+87.7%
Capital Expenditures

$225M

Previous: $72.3M+210.7%
Free Cash Flow

$202M

Previous: $172M+17.6%
Net Income

$499M

Previous: $32M+1458.8%
Operating Income

$187M

Previous: $136M+37.5%
Gross Profit

$379M

Previous: $254M+49.3%
Cash & Equivalents

$305M

Previous: $525M-41.9%
Total Assets

$6.52B

Previous: $4.14B+57.5%
Stock-Based Comp

$10.5M

Previous: $5.8M+81.0%

Revenue & EPS history

Lamb Weston · Revenue · Quarterly

$1.7B

Q4 2023+47%vs Q4 2022
Beat estimate in 8 of 15 quarters(53%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Lamb Weston · $1.67B total across 2 segments · Q1 2024

  • North America
    $1.14B
  • International
    $530M

Forward guidance

For fiscal year 2024, Lamb Weston anticipates net sales between $6.7 billion and $6.9 billion, net income between $725 million and $790 million, diluted EPS between $4.95 and $5.40, and adjusted EBITDA including unconsolidated joint ventures between $1.45 billion and $1.525 billion.

Tailwinds

  • Net sales of $6.7 billion to $6.9 billion, including $1.0 billion to $1.1 billion of incremental sales attributable to the consolidation of the financial results of LW EMEA during the first three quarters of the fiscal year.
  • The Company is targeting net sales, excluding those incremental sales attributable to the LW EMEA Acquisition, to grow 6.5 percent to 8.5 percent, and to be largely driven by pricing actions.
  • Net income of $725 million to $790 million
  • Diluted EPS of $4.95 to $5.40
  • Adjusted EBITDA including unconsolidated joint ventures(1) of $1,450 million to $1,525 million (+21% using the mid-point).

Headwinds

  • Sales volumes are expected to be pressured by the Company’s continuing efforts to strategically manage customer and product mix by exiting certain lower-priced and lower-margin business
  • Ongoing softening restaurant traffic trends in the U.S. and other key markets due to macroeconomic headwinds.
  • SG&A, which is expected to be $765 million to $775 million, largely reflecting: incremental expense attributable to the consolidation of the financial results of LW EMEA
  • Increased investments to upgrade the Company’s information systems and ERP infrastructure
  • Cash used for capital expenditures of $800 million to $900 million

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2023

Historical avgQ4 2023

-1.3%

Avg return

Earnings day

-1.2%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.1%

Avg return

30 days after

52%

23 / 44 earnings

Positive

+13.9%

Q2 2023

Best reaction

-32.6%

Q4 2024

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q3 2026-0.6%-2.8%
Q2 2026-25.0%-28.4%-27.0%
Q1 2026+4.5%+13.0%+11.7%
Q4 2025-2.1%-2.4%-1.5%
Q3 2025+10.0%-3.1%-4.9%
Q2 2025-20.6%-18.6%-23.2%
Q1 2025+2.8%+6.3%+20.0%
Q4 2024-32.6%-28.5%-20.3%
Q3 2024-21.1%-20.5%-15.9%
Q2 2024+1.0%+2.4%+1.1%
Q1 2024+3.3%+6.5%+4.0%
Q4 2023-9.7%-9.4%-15.1%
Q3 2023+3.0%+3.7%+7.6%
Q2 2023+13.9%+12.1%+12.2%
Q1 2023+4.9%+5.2%+8.4%
Q4 2022+6.7%+7.3%+7.4%
Q3 2022+9.7%+9.6%+4.5%
Q2 2022+11.3%+9.8%-0.6%
Q1 2022-9.5%-11.6%-7.5%
Q4 2021-12.2%-12.2%-15.2%
Q3 2021-4.1%-2.8%-2.4%
Q2 2021+0.3%-2.0%+3.7%
Q1 2021+5.9%+3.5%-5.4%
Q4 2020-15.2%-14.8%-11.4%
Q3 2020-12.6%-9.2%+2.2%
Q2 2020+7.9%+8.5%+8.6%
Q1 2020+5.9%+3.2%+5.4%
Q4 2019-6.0%-4.3%+2.9%
Q3 2019-1.2%-3.2%-10.3%
Q2 2019-3.3%-4.5%-0.8%
Q1 2019+9.6%+13.3%+17.1%
Q4 2018+2.5%+2.8%-1.9%
Q3 2018+4.0%+7.3%+9.5%
Q2 2018+2.9%+3.5%+1.3%
Q1 2017+3.0%+3.5%+10.5%
Q1 2018+3.0%+3.5%+10.5%
Q4 2015-1.1%-2.1%+0.6%
Q1 2016-1.1%-2.1%+0.6%
Q4 2017-1.1%-2.1%+0.6%
Q3 2016+3.0%+2.7%-0.4%
Q3 2017+3.0%+2.7%-0.4%
Q4 2016+0.0%+0.9%+5.9%
Q2 2017+0.0%+0.9%+5.9%
Q2 2016+0.0%+0.9%+5.9%

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