NYSE$LW

Lamb Weston Holdings Inc · Q4 2020 earnings

Q4 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Lamb Weston's fourth quarter results were impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, with net sales and diluted EPS declining.

Lamb Weston's Q4 2020 net sales decreased by 16% to $847 million, and net income resulted in a loss of $2 million, a decline of $112 million. Diluted EPS also declined to a loss of $0.01 from $0.75. These results were significantly impacted by costs related to the COVID-19 pandemic.

  • Net sales declined 16% to $847 million.
  • Income from operations declined 79% to $31 million, including $58 million of net COVID-19 related costs.
  • Net income declined $112 million to a loss of $2 million.
  • Diluted EPS declined $0.76 to a loss of $0.01 from $0.75.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$847M

Previous: $1B-15.6%
EPS (adj)

-$0.01

Previous: $0.74-101.4%
Capital Expenditures

$39.9M

Previous: $90M-55.7%
Free Cash Flow

$98.4M

Previous: $147M-32.8%
Net Income

-$1.6M

Previous: $110M-101.4%
Operating Income

$30.9M

Previous: $148M-79.1%
Gross Profit

$111M

Previous: $251M-55.6%
Cash & Equivalents

$1.36B

Previous: $12.2M+11080.3%
Total Assets

$4.66B

Previous: $3.05B+53.0%
Stock-Based Comp

$4.6M

Previous: $5.1M-9.8%

Revenue & EPS history

Lamb Weston · Revenue · Quarterly

$847M

Q4 2020-15.6%vs Q4 2019
Beat estimate in 14 of 16 quarters(88%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Lamb Weston · $1.67B total across 2 segments · Q1 2024

  • North America
    $1.14B
  • International
    $530M

Forward guidance

Due to the unpredictable effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the global economy, the company does not believe it can reasonably forecast frozen potato product demand for fiscal 2021.

Tailwinds

  • Shipments to large chain restaurant customers, which are primarily composed of quick service restaurants (“QSR”) that have relied on drive-thru traffic to support sales, have recovered to 85 to 90 percent of prior-year levels during the most recent weeks of the quarter.
  • Shipments to customers served by the Company’s Foodservice segment have gradually improved during the quarter, and have recovered to 70 to 75 percent of prior-year levels during the most recent weeks as states began to ease on-premises dining restrictions.
  • Shipments to retail customers during the most recent weeks are trending up 5 to 10 percent compared with the prior year period, as consumer trends to increase food-at-home purchases begin to normalize.
  • Shipments-to-date by the Company’s joint venture, Lamb-Weston/Meijer v.o.f. (“LWM”), are approximately 75 percent of prior-year levels, and have gradually improved as the quarter progressed as countries began to ease on-premises dining restrictions.
  • Shipments-to-date are approximately 85 percent of prior-year levels, and have improved from nearly 80 percent of prior-year levels at the end of May to more than 95 percent of prior-year levels in the most recent weeks as the country continues to ease on-premises dining restrictions and as consumers increasingly become more comfortable with dining on-premises.

Headwinds

  • The Company believes these improvements may become less pronounced, cease or reverse as the spread of COVID-19 continues and states reinstate or otherwise postpone on-premises dining restrictions.
  • A high percentage of LWM’s sales in Europe are to QSRs, which unlike U.S. QSRs, rely on dine-in, carry-out or delivery traffic as drive-thru options are limited.
  • Shipments-to-date have been soft compared with the prior year, reflecting the effect of the continued spread of COVID-19 and inventory destocking in several key markets.
  • The Company reduced contracting of raw potatoes by approximately 20-25 percent for the 2020 crop year, compared with its 2019 crop year purchases.
  • The Company expects that it will continue to incur costs as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic’s impact on its manufacturing, supply chain, commercial and functional support operations.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2020

Historical avgQ4 2020

-1.3%

Avg return

Earnings day

-1.2%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.1%

Avg return

30 days after

52%

23 / 44 earnings

Positive

+13.9%

Q2 2023

Best reaction

-32.6%

Q4 2024

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q3 2026-0.6%-2.8%
Q2 2026-25.0%-28.4%-27.0%
Q1 2026+4.5%+13.0%+11.7%
Q4 2025-2.1%-2.4%-1.5%
Q3 2025+10.0%-3.1%-4.9%
Q2 2025-20.6%-18.6%-23.2%
Q1 2025+2.8%+6.3%+20.0%
Q4 2024-32.6%-28.5%-20.3%
Q3 2024-21.1%-20.5%-15.9%
Q2 2024+1.0%+2.4%+1.1%
Q1 2024+3.3%+6.5%+4.0%
Q4 2023-9.7%-9.4%-15.1%
Q3 2023+3.0%+3.7%+7.6%
Q2 2023+13.9%+12.1%+12.2%
Q1 2023+4.9%+5.2%+8.4%
Q4 2022+6.7%+7.3%+7.4%
Q3 2022+9.7%+9.6%+4.5%
Q2 2022+11.3%+9.8%-0.6%
Q1 2022-9.5%-11.6%-7.5%
Q4 2021-12.2%-12.2%-15.2%
Q3 2021-4.1%-2.8%-2.4%
Q2 2021+0.3%-2.0%+3.7%
Q1 2021+5.9%+3.5%-5.4%
Q4 2020-15.2%-14.8%-11.4%
Q3 2020-12.6%-9.2%+2.2%
Q2 2020+7.9%+8.5%+8.6%
Q1 2020+5.9%+3.2%+5.4%
Q4 2019-6.0%-4.3%+2.9%
Q3 2019-1.2%-3.2%-10.3%
Q2 2019-3.3%-4.5%-0.8%
Q1 2019+9.6%+13.3%+17.1%
Q4 2018+2.5%+2.8%-1.9%
Q3 2018+4.0%+7.3%+9.5%
Q2 2018+2.9%+3.5%+1.3%
Q1 2017+3.0%+3.5%+10.5%
Q1 2018+3.0%+3.5%+10.5%
Q4 2015-1.1%-2.1%+0.6%
Q1 2016-1.1%-2.1%+0.6%
Q4 2017-1.1%-2.1%+0.6%
Q3 2016+3.0%+2.7%-0.4%
Q3 2017+3.0%+2.7%-0.4%
Q4 2016+0.0%+0.9%+5.9%
Q2 2017+0.0%+0.9%+5.9%
Q2 2016+0.0%+0.9%+5.9%

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