NYSE$IVR

Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc · Q4 2023 earnings

Q4 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Announced financial results for the quarter ended December 31, 2023.

Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. reported a net income per common share of $0.46 and earnings available for distribution per common share of $0.95 for Q4 2023. The company's book value per common share increased to $10.00, and the economic return for the quarter was 4.7%. The debt-to-equity ratio decreased to 5.7x, and the investment portfolio was primarily invested in Agency RMBS, with a significant balance of unrestricted cash and unencumbered investments.

  • Net income per common share was $0.46, compared to a net loss of $1.62 in Q3 2023.
  • Earnings available for distribution per common share was $0.95, compared to $1.51 in Q3 2023.
  • The common stock dividend remained unchanged at $0.40 per common share.
  • Book value per common share increased to $10.00, compared to $9.93 as of September 30, 2023.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

-$188M

Previous: $62.9M-398.7%
EPS (adj)

$0.95

Previous: $1.46-34.9%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio

5.7

Previous: 5.3+7.5%
Effective Interest Rate Margin

5.0%

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

$0.00

No prior period
Net Income

$27.2M

Previous: $30.6M-11.1%
Operating Income

$27.2M

Previous: $36.5M-25.4%

Revenue & EPS history

Invesco Mortgage Capital · Revenue · Quarterly

-$188M

Q4 2023-398.7%vs Q4 2022
Beat estimate in 3 of 14 quarters(21%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

The company is cautious on the near-term outlook for the Agency RMBS sector due to recent strong performance and uncertain timing of monetary policy adjustments. However, the potential reduction in interest rate volatility associated with the eventual normalization of monetary policy should be supportive for investors with longer time horizons. The company believes Agency RMBS investors stand to benefit from attractive valuations, favorable funding and a steeper yield curve as the macro environment stabilizes.

Tailwinds

  • Potential reduction in interest rate volatility.
  • Normalization of monetary policy should be supportive for investors with longer time horizons.
  • Agency RMBS investors stand to benefit from attractive valuations.
  • Favorable funding conditions.
  • Steeper yield curve as the macro environment stabilizes.

Headwinds

  • Cautious on the near-term outlook for the Agency RMBS sector.
  • Recent strong performance may not continue.
  • Uncertain timing of monetary policy adjustments.
  • Market sentiment then reversed course, as incoming data supported a soft landing narrative
  • Market expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve were pulled forward into the first quarter of 2024

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2023

Historical avgQ4 2023

-0.1%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.5%

Avg return

5 days after

-2.8%

Avg return

30 days after

46%

30 / 65 earnings

Positive

+13.3%

Q3 2020

Best reaction

-8.4%

Q3 2013

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+0.0%+1.7%-2.7%
Q4 2025-3.4%-0.1%-5.3%
Q3 2025+0.3%+0.4%+9.2%
Q2 2025-0.4%-0.4%-1.7%
Q1 2025+1.8%+3.8%+3.0%
Q4 2024-0.9%-1.3%-3.1%
Q3 2024-1.0%+3.5%+3.7%
Q2 2024+1.4%-0.5%+0.1%
Q1 2024+1.4%+1.4%+0.4%
Q4 2023-0.1%+2.1%+9.2%
Q3 2023-3.6%-4.4%+2.8%
Q2 2023-2.2%-1.9%-3.4%
Q1 2023+6.6%+4.6%+3.7%
Q4 2022-4.2%-6.1%-23.3%
Q3 2022-2.2%+2.0%+14.3%
Q2 2022+2.0%+1.9%-7.9%
Q1 2022-8.1%-9.7%-5.4%
Q4 2021-6.3%-11.4%-13.7%
Q3 2021+1.9%+2.8%-7.8%
Q2 2021-6.7%-7.9%-9.6%
Q1 2021-5.2%-7.3%-12.3%
Q4 2020+3.2%+5.1%+4.9%
Q3 2020+13.3%+11.8%+17.8%
Q2 2020+3.8%+3.8%-8.9%
Q1 2020-3.7%-15.4%-21.9%
Q4 2019+0.5%-0.8%-69.4%
Q3 2019+3.5%+2.9%+5.1%
Q2 2019+2.6%+1.7%-7.5%
Q1 2019-0.2%-0.7%-1.6%
Q4 2018-0.4%+0.0%+0.7%
Q3 2018-0.8%-0.1%+2.1%
Q2 2018-1.4%-1.9%+1.3%
Q1 2018+2.3%-0.1%+1.6%
Q4 2017-2.1%-1.3%-0.1%
Q3 2017-1.5%-1.7%+7.5%
Q2 2017+1.9%+0.8%+0.5%
Q1 2017+0.4%-2.9%+2.7%
Q4 2016-0.2%-1.4%-2.6%
Q3 2016+0.7%+0.1%-2.1%
Q2 2016+4.7%+5.7%+7.7%
Q1 2016+4.4%
Q4 2015+5.1%
Q3 2015+2.3%
Q2 2015+0.3%
Q1 2015+1.0%
Q4 2014+3.4%
Q3 2014-2.4%
Q2 2014+0.5%
Q1 2014+0.3%
Q4 2013-1.8%
Q3 2013-8.4%
Q2 2013-3.3%
Q1 2013-3.4%
Q4 2012-1.1%
Q4 2011-1.3%
Q3 2012+1.3%
Q2 2012-2.5%
Q1 2012-0.3%
Q3 2011-1.0%
Q2 2011+4.8%
Q1 2011+0.5%
Q4 2010+0.6%
Q3 2010-1.5%
Q2 2010-0.6%
Q1 2010-1.0%

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