NYSE$IVR

Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc · Q1 2024 earnings

Q1 2024 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Announced financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2024.

Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. reported a positive economic return of 4.8% for Q1 2024, driven by outperformance of higher coupon Agency RMBS and wider spreads on the swap portfolio. The company's book value per common share increased to $10.08, combined with a common stock dividend of $0.40. As of the end of the quarter, 94.3% of the investment portfolio was invested in Agency RMBS, 5.3% in Agency CMBS, and 0.4% in credit assets, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 5.6x.

  • Net income per common share was $0.49, compared to $0.46 in Q4 2023.
  • Earnings available for distribution per common share was $0.86, compared to $0.95 in Q4 2023.
  • Common stock dividend remained unchanged at $0.40 per common share.
  • Book value per common share increased to $10.08, compared to $10.00 as of December 31, 2023.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$7M

Previous: $19.6M-64.2%
EPS (adj)

$0.86

Previous: $1.50-42.7%
Capital Expenditures

$0.00

No prior period
Free Cash Flow

$29.1M

Previous: $21.5M+35.7%
Net Income

$29.1M

Previous: $21.5M+35.7%
Operating Income

$2.35M

Previous: $14.5M-83.8%
Gross Profit

$7M

Previous: $19.6M-64.2%
Cash & Equivalents

$59.9M

Previous: $102M-41.2%
Total Assets

$5.23B

Previous: $5.71B-8.3%

Revenue & EPS history

Invesco Mortgage Capital · Revenue · Quarterly

$7M

Q1 2024-64.2%vs Q1 2023
Beat estimate in 3 of 14 quarters(21%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. remains cautious on the near-term outlook for the Agency RMBS sector, given the increase in market volatility in April. However, the company believes that the potential normalization of monetary policy and a steeper yield curve should be supportive of Agency RMBS over the longer term.

Tailwinds

  • Allocation to fixed-rate Agency CMBS reduces exposure to near-term interest rate volatility.
  • Fixed-rate Agency CMBS provides attractive returns with favorable funding.
  • Potential normalization of monetary policy should be supportive of Agency RMBS.
  • A steeper yield curve should be supportive of Agency RMBS.
  • Agency RMBS investors stand to benefit from attractive valuations, favorable funding and robust liquidity as the macro environment evolves.

Headwinds

  • Increase in market volatility in April.
  • Market adjusts to shifting expectations around the timing of monetary policy adjustments.
  • Near-term outlook for the Agency RMBS sector is cautious.
  • Decline in effective net interest income in connection with adjustments to swap portfolio.
  • Unspecified risks associated with adjustments to swap portfolio.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2024

Historical avgQ1 2024

-0.1%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.5%

Avg return

5 days after

-2.8%

Avg return

30 days after

46%

30 / 65 earnings

Positive

+13.3%

Q3 2020

Best reaction

-8.4%

Q3 2013

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+0.0%+1.7%-2.7%
Q4 2025-3.4%-0.1%-5.3%
Q3 2025+0.3%+0.4%+9.2%
Q2 2025-0.4%-0.4%-1.7%
Q1 2025+1.8%+3.8%+3.0%
Q4 2024-0.9%-1.3%-3.1%
Q3 2024-1.0%+3.5%+3.7%
Q2 2024+1.4%-0.5%+0.1%
Q1 2024+1.4%+1.4%+0.4%
Q4 2023-0.1%+2.1%+9.2%
Q3 2023-3.6%-4.4%+2.8%
Q2 2023-2.2%-1.9%-3.4%
Q1 2023+6.6%+4.6%+3.7%
Q4 2022-4.2%-6.1%-23.3%
Q3 2022-2.2%+2.0%+14.3%
Q2 2022+2.0%+1.9%-7.9%
Q1 2022-8.1%-9.7%-5.4%
Q4 2021-6.3%-11.4%-13.7%
Q3 2021+1.9%+2.8%-7.8%
Q2 2021-6.7%-7.9%-9.6%
Q1 2021-5.2%-7.3%-12.3%
Q4 2020+3.2%+5.1%+4.9%
Q3 2020+13.3%+11.8%+17.8%
Q2 2020+3.8%+3.8%-8.9%
Q1 2020-3.7%-15.4%-21.9%
Q4 2019+0.5%-0.8%-69.4%
Q3 2019+3.5%+2.9%+5.1%
Q2 2019+2.6%+1.7%-7.5%
Q1 2019-0.2%-0.7%-1.6%
Q4 2018-0.4%+0.0%+0.7%
Q3 2018-0.8%-0.1%+2.1%
Q2 2018-1.4%-1.9%+1.3%
Q1 2018+2.3%-0.1%+1.6%
Q4 2017-2.1%-1.3%-0.1%
Q3 2017-1.5%-1.7%+7.5%
Q2 2017+1.9%+0.8%+0.5%
Q1 2017+0.4%-2.9%+2.7%
Q4 2016-0.2%-1.4%-2.6%
Q3 2016+0.7%+0.1%-2.1%
Q2 2016+4.7%+5.7%+7.7%
Q1 2016+4.4%
Q4 2015+5.1%
Q3 2015+2.3%
Q2 2015+0.3%
Q1 2015+1.0%
Q4 2014+3.4%
Q3 2014-2.4%
Q2 2014+0.5%
Q1 2014+0.3%
Q4 2013-1.8%
Q3 2013-8.4%
Q2 2013-3.3%
Q1 2013-3.4%
Q4 2012-1.1%
Q4 2011-1.3%
Q3 2012+1.3%
Q2 2012-2.5%
Q1 2012-0.3%
Q3 2011-1.0%
Q2 2011+4.8%
Q1 2011+0.5%
Q4 2010+0.6%
Q3 2010-1.5%
Q2 2010-0.6%
Q1 2010-1.0%

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