NYSE$IVR

Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc · Q4 2020 earnings

Q4 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Announced financial results, reporting net income per common share of $0.59, increased core earnings per common share to $0.10, raised common stock dividend to $0.08, and increased book value per common share to $3.86.

Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. reported core earnings of $0.10 per common share for the fourth quarter of 2020. The company largely completed its portfolio reallocation to Agency residential mortgage-backed securities. Approximately 98% of the investment portfolio was invested in Agency RMBS at year end. The company maintained a sizeable balance of unrestricted cash and unencumbered investments of $744.8 million as of December 31, 2020.

  • Reported net income per common share $0.59 compared to $0.53 per common share in Q3 2020
  • Increased core earnings per common share $0.10 compared to $0.06 per common share in Q3 2020
  • Raised common stock dividend $0.08 compared to $0.05 per common share in Q3 2020
  • Increased book value per common share $3.86 compared to $3.47 per common share at Q3 2020

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$38.3M

Previous: $86M-55.4%
EPS (adj)

$1.00

Previous: $5.20-80.8%
Average Earning Asset Yields

1.9%

Previous: 3.6%-48.6%
Average Cost of Funds

-0.1%

Previous: 2.2%-106.5%
Average Net Interest Rate Margin

2.0%

Previous: 1.4%+37.9%
Period-End Weighted Average Asset Yields

2.0%

Previous: 3.9%-48.4%
Period-End Weighted Average Cost of Funds

0.2%

Previous: 2.1%-90.0%
Period-End Weighted Average Net Interest Rate Margin

1.8%

Previous: 1.8%+0.6%
Book Value Per Common Share

$3.86

Previous: $16.29-76.3%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio

5.3

Previous: 6.5-18.5%
Effective Cost of Funds

0.4%

Previous: 2.0%-80.4%
Effective Interest Rate Margin

1.5%

Previous: 1.7%-12.6%
Economic Debt-to-Equity Ratio

6.6

No prior period
Net Income

$112M

Previous: $118M-5.4%
Operating Income

$123M

Previous: $118M+4.0%
Cash & Equivalents

$148M

Previous: $173M-14.2%
Total Assets

$8.63B

Previous: $22.3B-61.4%

Revenue & EPS history

Invesco Mortgage Capital · Revenue · Quarterly

$38.3M

Q4 2020-55.4%vs Q4 2019
Beat estimate in 5 of 16 quarters(31%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

The outlook for Agency RMBS remains constructive, as the asset class offers an attractive return profile, benefits from substantial liquidity and funding and is supported by ongoing purchases by the Federal Reserve.

Tailwinds

  • Asset class offers an attractive return profile
  • Benefits from substantial liquidity
  • Benefits from substantial funding
  • Supported by ongoing purchases by the Federal Reserve
  • Company raised an additional $103.1 million in common equity earlier this month that was deployed into Agency RMBS

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2020

Historical avgQ4 2020

-0.1%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.5%

Avg return

5 days after

-2.8%

Avg return

30 days after

46%

30 / 65 earnings

Positive

+13.3%

Q3 2020

Best reaction

-8.4%

Q3 2013

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+0.0%+1.7%-2.7%
Q4 2025-3.4%-0.1%-5.3%
Q3 2025+0.3%+0.4%+9.2%
Q2 2025-0.4%-0.4%-1.7%
Q1 2025+1.8%+3.8%+3.0%
Q4 2024-0.9%-1.3%-3.1%
Q3 2024-1.0%+3.5%+3.7%
Q2 2024+1.4%-0.5%+0.1%
Q1 2024+1.4%+1.4%+0.4%
Q4 2023-0.1%+2.1%+9.2%
Q3 2023-3.6%-4.4%+2.8%
Q2 2023-2.2%-1.9%-3.4%
Q1 2023+6.6%+4.6%+3.7%
Q4 2022-4.2%-6.1%-23.3%
Q3 2022-2.2%+2.0%+14.3%
Q2 2022+2.0%+1.9%-7.9%
Q1 2022-8.1%-9.7%-5.4%
Q4 2021-6.3%-11.4%-13.7%
Q3 2021+1.9%+2.8%-7.8%
Q2 2021-6.7%-7.9%-9.6%
Q1 2021-5.2%-7.3%-12.3%
Q4 2020+3.2%+5.1%+4.9%
Q3 2020+13.3%+11.8%+17.8%
Q2 2020+3.8%+3.8%-8.9%
Q1 2020-3.7%-15.4%-21.9%
Q4 2019+0.5%-0.8%-69.4%
Q3 2019+3.5%+2.9%+5.1%
Q2 2019+2.6%+1.7%-7.5%
Q1 2019-0.2%-0.7%-1.6%
Q4 2018-0.4%+0.0%+0.7%
Q3 2018-0.8%-0.1%+2.1%
Q2 2018-1.4%-1.9%+1.3%
Q1 2018+2.3%-0.1%+1.6%
Q4 2017-2.1%-1.3%-0.1%
Q3 2017-1.5%-1.7%+7.5%
Q2 2017+1.9%+0.8%+0.5%
Q1 2017+0.4%-2.9%+2.7%
Q4 2016-0.2%-1.4%-2.6%
Q3 2016+0.7%+0.1%-2.1%
Q2 2016+4.7%+5.7%+7.7%
Q1 2016+4.4%
Q4 2015+5.1%
Q3 2015+2.3%
Q2 2015+0.3%
Q1 2015+1.0%
Q4 2014+3.4%
Q3 2014-2.4%
Q2 2014+0.5%
Q1 2014+0.3%
Q4 2013-1.8%
Q3 2013-8.4%
Q2 2013-3.3%
Q1 2013-3.4%
Q4 2012-1.1%
Q4 2011-1.3%
Q3 2012+1.3%
Q2 2012-2.5%
Q1 2012-0.3%
Q3 2011-1.0%
Q2 2011+4.8%
Q1 2011+0.5%
Q4 2010+0.6%
Q3 2010-1.5%
Q2 2010-0.6%
Q1 2010-1.0%

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