NYSE$IVR

Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc · Q3 2023 earnings

Q3 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Announced financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2023.

Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. reported a net loss per common share of $1.62 for Q3 2023, compared to a net income of $0.03 in Q2 2023. Earnings available for distribution per common share was $1.51, up from $1.45 in the previous quarter. The company's book value per common share decreased to $9.93 from $11.98 as of June 30, 2023, and the economic return was (13.8)%, compared to (1.8)% in Q2 2023.

  • Net loss per common share of $1.62 compared to $0.03 in Q2 2023
  • Earnings available for distribution per common share of $1.51 compared to $1.45 in Q2 2023
  • Common stock dividend of $0.40 per common share, unchanged from Q2 2023
  • Book value per common share of $9.93 compared to $11.98 as of June 30, 2023

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$9.43M

Previous: $31.7M-70.3%
EPS (adj)

$1.51

Previous: $1.39+8.6%
Average Net Interest Rate Margin

0.1%

Previous: 2.5%-95.6%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio

6.4

Previous: 5.1+25.5%
Capital Expenditures

$0.00

No prior period
Free Cash Flow

-$68.6M

Previous: -$101M+32.4%
Net Income

-$68.6M

Previous: -$101M+32.4%
Operating Income

$4.65M

Previous: $25.9M-82.0%
Gross Profit

$9.43M

Previous: $31.7M-70.3%
Cash & Equivalents

$174M

Previous: $164M+6.3%
Total Assets

$5.83B

Previous: $4.69B+24.4%

Revenue & EPS history

Invesco Mortgage Capital · Revenue · Quarterly

$9.43M

Q3 2023-70.3%vs Q3 2022
Beat estimate in 3 of 14 quarters(21%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

Invesco Mortgage Capital remains cautious on the near-term outlook given the uncertain path of fiscal and monetary policy and heightened geopolitical risks. However, the potential reduction in interest rate volatility associated with the eventual normalization of monetary policy should be supportive of our target assets, and we continue to believe Agency RMBS investors with long term horizons stand to benefit from historically attractive valuations.

Tailwinds

  • Potential reduction in interest rate volatility
  • Normalization of monetary policy
  • Supportive of target assets
  • Agency RMBS investors with long term horizons stand to benefit
  • Historically attractive valuations

Headwinds

  • Uncertain path of fiscal policy
  • Uncertain path of monetary policy
  • Heightened geopolitical risks
  • Elevated interest rate volatility
  • Further pressure on Agency RMBS valuations

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2023

Historical avgQ3 2023

-0.1%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.5%

Avg return

5 days after

-2.8%

Avg return

30 days after

46%

30 / 65 earnings

Positive

+13.3%

Q3 2020

Best reaction

-8.4%

Q3 2013

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+0.0%+1.7%-2.7%
Q4 2025-3.4%-0.1%-5.3%
Q3 2025+0.3%+0.4%+9.2%
Q2 2025-0.4%-0.4%-1.7%
Q1 2025+1.8%+3.8%+3.0%
Q4 2024-0.9%-1.3%-3.1%
Q3 2024-1.0%+3.5%+3.7%
Q2 2024+1.4%-0.5%+0.1%
Q1 2024+1.4%+1.4%+0.4%
Q4 2023-0.1%+2.1%+9.2%
Q3 2023-3.6%-4.4%+2.8%
Q2 2023-2.2%-1.9%-3.4%
Q1 2023+6.6%+4.6%+3.7%
Q4 2022-4.2%-6.1%-23.3%
Q3 2022-2.2%+2.0%+14.3%
Q2 2022+2.0%+1.9%-7.9%
Q1 2022-8.1%-9.7%-5.4%
Q4 2021-6.3%-11.4%-13.7%
Q3 2021+1.9%+2.8%-7.8%
Q2 2021-6.7%-7.9%-9.6%
Q1 2021-5.2%-7.3%-12.3%
Q4 2020+3.2%+5.1%+4.9%
Q3 2020+13.3%+11.8%+17.8%
Q2 2020+3.8%+3.8%-8.9%
Q1 2020-3.7%-15.4%-21.9%
Q4 2019+0.5%-0.8%-69.4%
Q3 2019+3.5%+2.9%+5.1%
Q2 2019+2.6%+1.7%-7.5%
Q1 2019-0.2%-0.7%-1.6%
Q4 2018-0.4%+0.0%+0.7%
Q3 2018-0.8%-0.1%+2.1%
Q2 2018-1.4%-1.9%+1.3%
Q1 2018+2.3%-0.1%+1.6%
Q4 2017-2.1%-1.3%-0.1%
Q3 2017-1.5%-1.7%+7.5%
Q2 2017+1.9%+0.8%+0.5%
Q1 2017+0.4%-2.9%+2.7%
Q4 2016-0.2%-1.4%-2.6%
Q3 2016+0.7%+0.1%-2.1%
Q2 2016+4.7%+5.7%+7.7%
Q1 2016+4.4%
Q4 2015+5.1%
Q3 2015+2.3%
Q2 2015+0.3%
Q1 2015+1.0%
Q4 2014+3.4%
Q3 2014-2.4%
Q2 2014+0.5%
Q1 2014+0.3%
Q4 2013-1.8%
Q3 2013-8.4%
Q2 2013-3.3%
Q1 2013-3.4%
Q4 2012-1.1%
Q4 2011-1.3%
Q3 2012+1.3%
Q2 2012-2.5%
Q1 2012-0.3%
Q3 2011-1.0%
Q2 2011+4.8%
Q1 2011+0.5%
Q4 2010+0.6%
Q3 2010-1.5%
Q2 2010-0.6%
Q1 2010-1.0%

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