NYSE$IVR

Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc · Q1 2022 earnings

Q1 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Announced financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2022.

Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. reported a net loss per common share of $0.72, with earnings available for distribution per common share of $0.12. The book value per common share was $2.08, and the economic return was (25.4%). The company's investment portfolio was substantially invested in Agency RMBS, with a sizeable balance of unrestricted cash and unencumbered investments.

  • Net loss per common share was $0.72, compared to $0.23 in Q4 2021.
  • Earnings available for distribution per common share were $0.12, compared to $0.10 in Q4 2021.
  • Common stock dividend remained unchanged at $0.09 per common share.
  • Book value per common share decreased to $2.08, compared to $2.91 at Q4 2021.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$44.3M

Previous: $41.7M+6.3%
EPS (adj)

$1.20

Previous: $1.10+9.1%
Average Earning Asset Yields

2.4%

No prior period
Average Cost of Funds

-0.1%

No prior period
Average Net Interest Rate Margin

2.5%

No prior period
Book Value Per Common Share

$2.08

No prior period
Debt-to-Equity Ratio

5.2

Previous: 5.6-7.1%
Effective Cost of Funds

0.1%

No prior period
Effective Interest Rate Margin

2.3%

No prior period
Economic Debt-to-Equity Ratio

6.5

Previous: 6.6-1.5%
Free Cash Flow

-$228M

Previous: -$9.28M-2362.8%
Net Income

-$228M

Previous: -$9.28M-2362.8%
Operating Income

$37M

Previous: $34.8M+6.3%
Gross Profit

$44.3M

Previous: $41.7M+6.3%
Cash & Equivalents

$252M

Previous: $198M+26.9%
Total Assets

$7.08B

Previous: $9.76B-27.5%

Revenue & EPS history

Invesco Mortgage Capital · Revenue · Quarterly

$44.3M

Q1 2022+6.3%vs Q1 2021
Beat estimate in 7 of 16 quarters(44%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

Invesco Mortgage Capital anticipates that increased expectations for accelerated interest rate hikes and balance sheet reduction by the Federal Reserve will continue to weigh on Agency RMBS valuations in the near term. The outlook remains cautious, with a strategy to maintain relatively low leverage. The environment for Agency RMBS is expected to improve later in the year due to attractive spreads, slow prepayment rates, and a decline in net supply. The company continues to evaluate additional investment opportunities to complement its Agency RMBS strategy.

Tailwinds

  • Attractive spreads relative to other fixed income sectors.
  • Slow prepayment rates.
  • Decline in net supply.
  • Potential for improved Agency RMBS environment later in the year.
  • Evaluation of additional investment opportunities for portfolio diversification.

Headwinds

  • Increased expectations for accelerated interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.
  • Balance sheet reduction by the Federal Reserve.
  • Continued pressure on Agency RMBS valuations in the near term.
  • Cautious outlook.
  • Need to maintain relatively low leverage.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2022

Historical avgQ1 2022

-0.1%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.5%

Avg return

5 days after

-2.8%

Avg return

30 days after

46%

30 / 65 earnings

Positive

+13.3%

Q3 2020

Best reaction

-8.4%

Q3 2013

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+0.0%+1.7%-2.7%
Q4 2025-3.4%-0.1%-5.3%
Q3 2025+0.3%+0.4%+9.2%
Q2 2025-0.4%-0.4%-1.7%
Q1 2025+1.8%+3.8%+3.0%
Q4 2024-0.9%-1.3%-3.1%
Q3 2024-1.0%+3.5%+3.7%
Q2 2024+1.4%-0.5%+0.1%
Q1 2024+1.4%+1.4%+0.4%
Q4 2023-0.1%+2.1%+9.2%
Q3 2023-3.6%-4.4%+2.8%
Q2 2023-2.2%-1.9%-3.4%
Q1 2023+6.6%+4.6%+3.7%
Q4 2022-4.2%-6.1%-23.3%
Q3 2022-2.2%+2.0%+14.3%
Q2 2022+2.0%+1.9%-7.9%
Q1 2022-8.1%-9.7%-5.4%
Q4 2021-6.3%-11.4%-13.7%
Q3 2021+1.9%+2.8%-7.8%
Q2 2021-6.7%-7.9%-9.6%
Q1 2021-5.2%-7.3%-12.3%
Q4 2020+3.2%+5.1%+4.9%
Q3 2020+13.3%+11.8%+17.8%
Q2 2020+3.8%+3.8%-8.9%
Q1 2020-3.7%-15.4%-21.9%
Q4 2019+0.5%-0.8%-69.4%
Q3 2019+3.5%+2.9%+5.1%
Q2 2019+2.6%+1.7%-7.5%
Q1 2019-0.2%-0.7%-1.6%
Q4 2018-0.4%+0.0%+0.7%
Q3 2018-0.8%-0.1%+2.1%
Q2 2018-1.4%-1.9%+1.3%
Q1 2018+2.3%-0.1%+1.6%
Q4 2017-2.1%-1.3%-0.1%
Q3 2017-1.5%-1.7%+7.5%
Q2 2017+1.9%+0.8%+0.5%
Q1 2017+0.4%-2.9%+2.7%
Q4 2016-0.2%-1.4%-2.6%
Q3 2016+0.7%+0.1%-2.1%
Q2 2016+4.7%+5.7%+7.7%
Q1 2016+4.4%
Q4 2015+5.1%
Q3 2015+2.3%
Q2 2015+0.3%
Q1 2015+1.0%
Q4 2014+3.4%
Q3 2014-2.4%
Q2 2014+0.5%
Q1 2014+0.3%
Q4 2013-1.8%
Q3 2013-8.4%
Q2 2013-3.3%
Q1 2013-3.4%
Q4 2012-1.1%
Q4 2011-1.3%
Q3 2012+1.3%
Q2 2012-2.5%
Q1 2012-0.3%
Q3 2011-1.0%
Q2 2011+4.8%
Q1 2011+0.5%
Q4 2010+0.6%
Q3 2010-1.5%
Q2 2010-0.6%
Q1 2010-1.0%

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