NYSE$IVR

Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc · Q3 2024 earnings

Q3 2024 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. reported financial results for the third quarter of 2024.

Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. reported a net income per common share of $0.63 and earnings available for distribution per common share of $0.68 for Q3 2024. The company's book value per common share increased to $9.37, resulting in an economic return of 5.4%.

  • Net income per common share was $0.63, compared to a net loss of $0.38 in Q2 2024.
  • Earnings available for distribution per common share was $0.68, compared to $0.86 in Q2 2024.
  • Common stock dividend remained unchanged at $0.40 per common share.
  • Book value per common share increased to $9.37, compared to $9.27 as of June 30, 2024.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$7.51M

Previous: $9.43M-20.4%
EPS

$0.63

Previous: $1.51-58.3%
Average Earning Asset Yields

5.3%

No prior period
Average Cost of Funds

5.3%

No prior period
Debt-to-Equity Ratio

6.1

Previous: 6.4-4.7%
Effective Interest Rate Margin

3.3%

No prior period
Economic Debt-to-Equity Ratio

6.1

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

$0.00

Previous: $0.00
Free Cash Flow

$40.7M

Previous: -$68.6M+159.4%
Net Income

$40.7M

Previous: -$68.6M+159.4%
Operating Income

$2.74M

Previous: $4.65M-41.1%
Gross Profit

$7.43M

Previous: $9.43M-21.2%
Cash & Equivalents

$48.3M

Previous: $174M-72.3%
Total Assets

$6.08B

Previous: $5.83B+4.3%

Revenue & EPS history

Invesco Mortgage Capital · Revenue · Quarterly

$7.51M

Q3 2024-20.4%vs Q3 2023
Beat estimate in 3 of 14 quarters(21%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

The anticipated easing of monetary policy should lead to a steeper yield curve and lower interest rate volatility, creating a favorable environment for Agency RMBS investments. However, risks including accelerating inflation, fiscal policy expectations and short-term funding pressures into year end could reduce investor demand for the sector in the near-term.

Tailwinds

  • Normalization of monetary policy can benefit Agency mortgage performance.
  • Attractive valuations in the sector.
  • Supportive supply and demand technicals.
  • Steeper yield curve expected due to easing monetary policy.
  • Lower interest rate volatility expected due to easing monetary policy.

Headwinds

  • Accelerating inflation could reduce investor demand.
  • Fiscal policy expectations could reduce investor demand.
  • Short-term funding pressures into year end could reduce investor demand.
  • Risks related to macroeconomic factors.
  • Potential reduction in investor demand in the near-term.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2024

Historical avgQ3 2024

-0.1%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.5%

Avg return

5 days after

-2.8%

Avg return

30 days after

46%

30 / 65 earnings

Positive

+13.3%

Q3 2020

Best reaction

-8.4%

Q3 2013

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+0.0%+1.7%-2.7%
Q4 2025-3.4%-0.1%-5.3%
Q3 2025+0.3%+0.4%+9.2%
Q2 2025-0.4%-0.4%-1.7%
Q1 2025+1.8%+3.8%+3.0%
Q4 2024-0.9%-1.3%-3.1%
Q3 2024-1.0%+3.5%+3.7%
Q2 2024+1.4%-0.5%+0.1%
Q1 2024+1.4%+1.4%+0.4%
Q4 2023-0.1%+2.1%+9.2%
Q3 2023-3.6%-4.4%+2.8%
Q2 2023-2.2%-1.9%-3.4%
Q1 2023+6.6%+4.6%+3.7%
Q4 2022-4.2%-6.1%-23.3%
Q3 2022-2.2%+2.0%+14.3%
Q2 2022+2.0%+1.9%-7.9%
Q1 2022-8.1%-9.7%-5.4%
Q4 2021-6.3%-11.4%-13.7%
Q3 2021+1.9%+2.8%-7.8%
Q2 2021-6.7%-7.9%-9.6%
Q1 2021-5.2%-7.3%-12.3%
Q4 2020+3.2%+5.1%+4.9%
Q3 2020+13.3%+11.8%+17.8%
Q2 2020+3.8%+3.8%-8.9%
Q1 2020-3.7%-15.4%-21.9%
Q4 2019+0.5%-0.8%-69.4%
Q3 2019+3.5%+2.9%+5.1%
Q2 2019+2.6%+1.7%-7.5%
Q1 2019-0.2%-0.7%-1.6%
Q4 2018-0.4%+0.0%+0.7%
Q3 2018-0.8%-0.1%+2.1%
Q2 2018-1.4%-1.9%+1.3%
Q1 2018+2.3%-0.1%+1.6%
Q4 2017-2.1%-1.3%-0.1%
Q3 2017-1.5%-1.7%+7.5%
Q2 2017+1.9%+0.8%+0.5%
Q1 2017+0.4%-2.9%+2.7%
Q4 2016-0.2%-1.4%-2.6%
Q3 2016+0.7%+0.1%-2.1%
Q2 2016+4.7%+5.7%+7.7%
Q1 2016+4.4%
Q4 2015+5.1%
Q3 2015+2.3%
Q2 2015+0.3%
Q1 2015+1.0%
Q4 2014+3.4%
Q3 2014-2.4%
Q2 2014+0.5%
Q1 2014+0.3%
Q4 2013-1.8%
Q3 2013-8.4%
Q2 2013-3.3%
Q1 2013-3.4%
Q4 2012-1.1%
Q4 2011-1.3%
Q3 2012+1.3%
Q2 2012-2.5%
Q1 2012-0.3%
Q3 2011-1.0%
Q2 2011+4.8%
Q1 2011+0.5%
Q4 2010+0.6%
Q3 2010-1.5%
Q2 2010-0.6%
Q1 2010-1.0%

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