NYSE$HRTG

Heritage Insurance Holdings · Q3 2022 earnings

Q3 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported a net loss due to current accident year weather losses, including Hurricane Ian, and a valuation allowance on deferred tax assets.

Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. reported a net loss of $48.2 million for the third quarter of 2022, driven by weather-related losses and a valuation allowance. Gross premiums written increased, but net earned premiums decreased. The company is focused on managing exposure and achieving rate adequacy.

  • Net loss of $48.2 million, or $1.83 per diluted share, compared to a net loss of $16.4 million, or $0.59 per diluted share, in the prior year quarter.
  • Gross premiums written increased by 11.1% year-over-year to $304.5 million.
  • Net earned premiums decreased by 1.7% year-over-year to $159.7 million.
  • Net current accident year weather losses increased by 24.2% year-over-year to $63.8 million, including $40 million from Hurricane Ian.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$165M

Previous: $167M-1.1%
EPS (adj)

-$1.83

Previous: -$0.59-210.2%
Ceded premium ratio

48.1%

No prior period
Premiums in force

$1.24B

Previous: $1.2B+3.3%
Capital Expenditures

-$4.91M

Previous: -$892K-450.6%
Free Cash Flow

-$53.2M

Previous: -$17.3M-207.2%
Net Income

-$48.2M

Previous: -$16.4M-194.0%
Operating Income

-$47.3M

Previous: -$15.4M-207.7%
Gross Profit

-$28.4M

Previous: -$10.7M-164.1%
Cash & Equivalents

$298M

Previous: $393M-24.4%
Total Assets

$2.52B

Previous: $2.25B+12.2%
Stock-Based Comp

$499K

Previous: $319K+56.4%

Revenue & EPS history

Heritage Insurance · Revenue · Quarterly

$165M

Q3 2022-1.1%vs Q3 2021
Beat estimate in 9 of 15 quarters(60%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

Heritage Insurance Holdings is focused on strategic initiatives to achieve consistent long-term quarterly earnings and drive shareholder value. The company aims to generate underwriting profit through rate adequacy and selective underwriting, optimize capital allocation, and improve portfolio diversity.

Tailwinds

  • Premiums-in-force are up 5.8% from the prior year quarter, driven by higher rates.
  • Average premium per policy throughout the book increased 13.6% over the prior year quarter.
  • Continued offering of Florida commercial lines product with 18.2% growth in annual premium.
  • Diversification efforts led to a premium in-force growth of 14.1% in other States.
  • TIV in other states improved to 74.8%, compared to 71.3% as of the third quarter of 2021.

Headwinds

  • Reduction of policy count for Florida personal lines product is a key focus and will continue if meaningful legislation to reduce abusive claims practices does not occur.
  • Policy count for Florida personal lines business intentionally declined by 18.8% as compared to the prior year period.
  • Given that Heritage’s stock is trading below tangible book value and the loss in the quarter, Heritage’s Board of Directors has decided to temporarily suspend the quarterly dividend to shareholders.
  • Net earned premiums are down 1.7% reflecting a 12.4% increase in contract year reinsurance cost with higher ceded premium outpacing the increase in gross earned premiums for the quarter.
  • Book value per share decreased to $4.54 at September 30, 2022, down 64.6% from fourth quarter 2021.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2022

Historical avgQ3 2022

+3.3%

Avg return

Earnings day

+7.4%

Avg return

5 days after

+9.5%

Avg return

30 days after

66%

35 / 53 earnings

Positive

+37.8%

Q2 2022

Best reaction

-21.9%

Q1 2024

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-20.0%-21.6%-21.0%
Q4 2025-0.1%+5.0%-1.0%
Q3 2025+12.7%+19.3%+8.0%
Q1 2025+23.1%+27.0%+26.3%
Q4 2024+1.0%+7.7%+36.6%
Q3 2024+6.6%+13.4%+11.2%
Q2 2024+2.1%+42.5%+124.4%
Q1 2024-21.9%-19.5%-16.7%
Q4 2023+28.2%+17.6%+41.8%
Q3 2023+13.5%+24.5%+43.9%
Q2 2023+8.0%+16.2%-0.2%
Q1 2023+10.6%+34.4%+41.2%
Q4 2022+36.8%+43.2%+15.8%
Q3 2022-20.0%-15.4%-8.0%
Q2 2022+37.8%+24.4%+6.7%
Q1 2022-9.5%-22.1%-11.2%
Q4 2021+16.9%+14.7%+17.5%
Q3 2021-3.7%-6.5%-5.6%
Q2 2021+3.4%+6.9%-4.7%
Q1 2021-4.4%+0.3%-7.9%
Q4 2020+1.7%+10.4%+9.6%
Q3 2020+3.1%-4.0%+9.0%
Q2 2020+7.2%+14.2%+10.0%
Q1 2020+3.4%+11.0%+19.2%
Q4 2019-6.0%-1.1%-15.2%
Q3 2019+12.0%+5.8%-0.2%
Q2 2019+3.5%+2.5%-2.5%
Q1 2019+4.2%+9.7%+15.1%
Q4 2018+1.3%-7.6%-3.0%
Q3 2018+6.7%+13.8%+13.9%
Q2 2018-9.6%-9.7%-11.8%
Q1 2018+5.9%+12.2%+10.7%
Q4 2017+2.9%+2.1%-6.3%
Q3 2017+2.6%+5.2%+12.2%
Q2 2017+6.1%-8.1%-24.4%
Q1 2017+7.9%+3.5%+7.3%
Q4 2016-8.9%-12.0%-19.4%
Q3 2016+11.6%+19.8%+34.7%
Q2 2016+13.8%+10.6%+13.8%
Q1 2016-2.6%
Q4 2015-11.7%
Q3 2015+4.9%
Q2 2015-13.4%
Q1 2014-0.9%
Q1 2015+1.4%
Q4 2012-1.1%
Q3 2013-1.1%
Q1 2013-1.1%
Q4 2014+0.8%
Q3 2014+5.4%
Q2 2013+2.1%
Q4 2013+2.1%
Q2 2014-0.2%

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