NYSE$HLF

Herbalife Nutrition Ltd. · Q4 2020 earnings

Q4 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Herbalife Nutrition reported record net sales and earnings growth in Q4 2020.

Herbalife Nutrition reported record-breaking 2020 net sales with a 14% increase compared to the prior year. The company's Q4 net sales reached $1.4 billion, representing the largest fourth-quarter net sales result in company history. Reported diluted EPS for Q4 2020 was $0.59, while adjusted diluted EPS was $0.71. The company raised its FY 2021 net sales and EPS guidance and announced a new $1.5 billion share repurchase program.

  • Record full-year net sales of $5.5 billion, a 13.6% increase compared to 2019.
  • Q4 net sales reached a record $1.4 billion, up 15.6% from Q4 2019.
  • Full year 2020 diluted EPS grew by approximately 25% compared to 2019.
  • Company announced a new $1.5 billion share repurchase program.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$1.41B

Previous: $1.22B+15.7%
EPS (adj)

$0.71

Previous: $0.74-4.1%
Capital Expenditures

$36.4M

Previous: $26.6M+36.8%
Free Cash Flow

$76.1M

Previous: $130M-41.5%
Net Income

$73.8M

Previous: $56.7M+30.2%
Operating Income

$148M

Previous: $108M+36.9%
Gross Profit

$1.1B

Previous: $991M+11.2%
Cash & Equivalents

$1.05B

Previous: $839M+24.5%
Total Assets

$3.08B

Previous: $2.68B+14.8%
Stock-Based Comp

$13.1M

Previous: $8.9M+47.2%

Revenue & EPS history

Herbalife · Revenue · Quarterly

$1.41B

Q4 2020+15.7%vs Q4 2019
Beat estimate in 9 of 16 quarters(56%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

The Company’s first quarter and full year 2021 guidance based on current business trends:

Tailwinds

  • Volume Point Growth vs 2020 Low 6.0%
  • Volume Point Growth vs 2020 High 14.0%
  • Net Sales Growth vs 2020 Low 8.5%
  • Net Sales Growth vs 2020 High 16.5%
  • Adjusted diluted EPS guidance includes a projected currency tailwind of approximately $0.06 per diluted share versus the first quarter of 2020.

Headwinds

  • Excludes any future potential Venezuela currency devaluations and associated pricing and inflationary consequences.
  • Excludes the following items that cannot be accurately predicted: any future potential ongoing tax effects from the exercise of equity awards that could impact the Company's tax rate due to the stock compensation accounting standard, benefits from future potential China grant income, any future potential dilution from the Company’s convertible notes due in 2024, as well as any future impact of the China Growth and Impact Investment Program.
  • With respect to guidance, the Company cannot accurately predict the impact to its share base from any future share repurchases.
  • Effective Tax Rate Low 20.8%
  • Effective Tax Rate High 26.8%

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2020

Historical avgQ4 2020

+2.4%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.3%

Avg return

5 days after

-1.5%

Avg return

30 days after

53%

36 / 68 earnings

Positive

+42.7%

Q4 2024

Best reaction

-31.9%

Q4 2023

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+4.2%-17.2%-30.7%
Q4 2025+18.3%+18.5%-11.1%
Q3 2025+10.7%+10.0%+48.1%
Q1 2025-7.9%-4.7%+8.5%
Q4 2024+42.7%+47.5%+50.0%
Q3 2024+8.5%+18.2%+11.6%
Q2 2024-9.4%-22.8%-34.1%
Q1 2024+8.4%+12.4%+19.1%
Q4 2023-31.9%-31.6%-24.1%
Q3 2023-2.5%-3.3%-7.7%
Q2 2023+14.8%+13.3%-5.7%
Q1 2023-8.6%-6.4%-20.8%
Q4 2022+27.1%+22.0%+7.3%
Q3 2022-2.8%-24.5%-18.5%
Q2 2022+12.0%+13.2%+7.2%
Q1 2022-3.4%-8.7%-16.3%
Q4 2021-16.7%-14.5%-25.8%
Q3 2021-3.7%-5.3%-17.6%
Q2 2021-5.7%-5.2%+2.9%
Q1 2021+3.2%+9.1%+18.0%
Q4 2020-10.5%-18.6%-17.7%
Q3 2020+2.1%-6.0%+5.1%
Q2 2020-3.4%-5.2%-4.6%
Q1 2020+22.0%+16.4%+35.3%
Q4 2019-2.8%-5.6%-26.3%
Q3 2019+10.6%+9.4%+13.0%
Q2 2019-7.4%-6.6%-16.1%
Q1 2019-5.9%-6.7%-22.2%
Q4 2018-0.9%-0.6%-1.0%
Q3 2018-1.9%-1.5%+4.8%
Q2 2018+11.8%+15.0%+9.6%
Q1 2018+5.1%+4.6%-3.9%
Q4 2017+3.2%+4.5%+18.0%
Q3 2017-3.4%-6.5%-1.7%
Q2 2017-1.9%-0.9%+3.8%
Q1 2017+11.2%+16.6%+18.4%
Q4 2016-6.6%-7.0%-6.1%
Q3 2016-8.6%-9.4%-20.5%
Q2 2016+1.1%+0.4%-8.1%
Q1 2016+9.9%
Q4 2015+19.3%
Q3 2015-1.7%
Q2 2015+14.4%
Q1 2015+11.0%
Q4 2014-7.9%
Q3 2014-15.6%
Q2 2014-11.7%
Q1 2014+4.0%
Q4 2013-0.3%
Q3 2013+2.4%
Q2 2013+2.7%
Q1 2013+3.8%
Q4 2012-2.5%
Q3 2012+1.5%
Q2 2012+2.0%
Q1 2012-15.3%
Q4 2011+10.2%
Q3 2011-5.4%
Q2 2011+5.3%
Q1 2010+13.9%
Q1 2011-0.7%
Q4 2008+10.6%
Q4 2010+10.6%
Q3 2009-1.7%
Q3 2010-1.7%
Q2 2009+10.7%
Q2 2010+10.7%
Q4 2009+10.7%

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