NYSE$GPK

Graphic Packaging Holding Co · Q4 2019 earnings

Q4 2019 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Graphic Packaging reported Q4 2019 results.

Graphic Packaging Holding Company reported Net Income for fourth quarter 2019 of $33.0 million, or $0.11 per share. Net Sales increased 0.7% to $1,519.8 million in the fourth quarter of 2019, compared to $1,509.3 million in the prior year period.

  • Net Sales were $1,519.8 million versus $1,509.3 million in the prior year period.
  • Net Income was $33.0 million compared to fourth quarter 2018 Net Income of $47.5 million.
  • Adjusted Net Income for the fourth quarter of 2019 was $67.0 million, or $0.23 per diluted share compared to fourth quarter 2018 Adjusted Net Income of $69.4 million, or $0.23 per diluted share.
  • Adjusted EBITDA increased $10.7 million to $258.8 million in the fourth quarter of 2019 from $248.1 million in the fourth quarter of 2018.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$1.52B

Previous: $1.51B+0.8%
EPS (adj)

$0.23

Previous: $0.23+0.0%
Adjusted EBITDA

$259M

Previous: $248M+4.3%
Capital Expenditures

$123M

Previous: $125M-1.8%
Net Leverage Ratio

2.64

No prior period
Net Income

$33M

Previous: $47.5M-30.5%
Operating Income

$133M

Previous: $108M+23.7%
Gross Profit

$272M

Previous: $231M+17.8%
Cash & Equivalents

$153M

Previous: $70.5M+116.9%
Total Assets

$7.29B

Previous: $7.06B+3.3%

Revenue & EPS history

Graphic Packaging · Revenue · Quarterly

$1.52B

Q4 2019+0.8%vs Q4 2018
Beat estimate in 12 of 16 quarters(75%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

Graphic Packaging expects to generate 100 to 200 basis points of sustainability supported net organic volume growth in 2020, driven by conversion of new and existing customers to our paperboard packaging solutions. Graphic Packaging is well-positioned to achieve another year of improved profitability and growth.

Tailwinds

  • Expect to generate 100 to 200 basis points of sustainability supported net organic volume growth in 2020
  • Driven by conversion of new and existing customers to our paperboard packaging solutions
  • Well-positioned to achieve another year of improved profitability
  • Strong cash flow generation
  • Healthy balance sheet

Headwinds

  • Inflation of raw material and energy costs
  • Volatility in raw material and energy costs
  • Continuing pressure for lower cost products
  • Company’s ability to implement its business strategies, including productivity initiatives, cost reduction plans, and integration activities
  • Company’s debt level

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2019

Historical avgQ4 2019

+0.7%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.3%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.3%

Avg return

30 days after

49%

32 / 65 earnings

Positive

+12.8%

Q3 2011

Best reaction

-15.6%

Q1 2025

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-0.9%+11.1%+11.2%
Q4 2025-8.1%-10.3%-24.8%
Q3 2025+9.0%+4.9%+0.9%
Q1 2025-15.6%-12.8%-12.2%
Q4 2024-2.5%-2.9%-1.9%
Q3 2024-6.9%-6.8%-1.1%
Q2 2024+7.5%+3.2%+5.1%
Q1 2024-6.4%-2.7%-1.4%
Q4 2023+6.3%+7.0%+13.6%
Q3 2023+3.1%+5.8%+8.6%
Q2 2023-3.7%-4.4%-8.1%
Q1 2023+1.9%+4.3%-1.9%
Q4 2022-2.2%-0.6%+4.1%
Q3 2022+8.9%+7.1%+5.0%
Q2 2022+3.3%+2.9%+8.3%
Q1 2022-0.3%+3.4%+1.8%
Q4 2021+7.0%+6.9%+6.0%
Q3 2021-1.9%-1.5%+3.9%
Q2 2021+8.1%+9.6%+15.3%
Q1 2021+0.6%+1.1%-3.7%
Q4 2020+1.8%+2.8%+3.0%
Q3 2020-4.7%-2.4%+9.4%
Q2 2020+0.8%+1.2%-1.9%
Q1 2020-1.5%-1.6%+2.4%
Q4 2019-2.1%-4.8%-17.6%
Q3 2019+5.1%+4.9%+7.7%
Q2 2019+6.7%+6.5%-5.8%
Q1 2019+5.5%+7.2%-2.2%
Q4 2018-1.3%+0.8%-0.1%
Q3 2018-14.4%-11.1%-4.5%
Q2 2018-4.0%-3.6%-4.6%
Q1 2018-7.2%-9.5%-5.2%
Q4 2017-1.9%-4.7%-0.5%
Q3 2017+7.3%+8.9%+4.4%
Q2 2017-4.7%-4.5%-5.6%
Q1 2017+0.0%+0.0%-0.5%
Q4 2016+3.8%+2.9%+1.3%
Q3 2016-9.5%-9.2%-5.8%
Q2 2016+5.3%+4.0%+10.5%
Q1 2016-0.4%
Q4 2015+6.6%
Q3 2015+6.0%
Q2 2015-1.0%
Q1 2015+3.5%
Q4 2014+1.3%
Q3 2014-3.0%
Q2 2014+6.3%
Q1 2014+4.3%
Q4 2013+4.7%
Q3 2013-2.1%
Q2 2013-4.0%
Q1 2013-1.7%
Q4 2012+2.1%
Q3 2012+5.3%
Q2 2012+10.3%
Q1 2011-2.4%
Q1 2012-2.4%
Q4 2009+2.9%
Q4 2011+2.9%
Q3 2010+12.8%
Q3 2011+12.8%
Q4 2010+0.0%
Q2 2010+0.0%
Q2 2011+0.0%
Q1 2010-8.7%

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