NYSE$GPK

Graphic Packaging Holding Co · Q4 2024 earnings

Q4 2024 earnings · · Before market open · Investor relations

Briefing

Graphic Packaging reported a decrease in net sales and net income compared to the previous year, but highlighted strategic investments and innovation for long-term value creation.

Graphic Packaging Holding Company reported fourth quarter 2024 results, with net sales decreasing by 7% to $2,095 million and net income at $138 million, or $0.46 per share. The company is focusing on driving competitive advantage in recycled paperboard and expanding innovation capabilities.

  • Net sales decreased by 7% to $2,095 million in Q4 2024.
  • Net income for Q4 2024 was $138 million, or $0.46 per share.
  • Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2024 was $404 million, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 19.3%.
  • The company announced a 10% increase in the quarterly dividend, to $0.11 per common share, effective for the first quarter 2025.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$2.1B

Previous: $2.25B-6.8%
EPS (adj)

$0.59

Previous: $0.75-21.3%
Adjusted EBITDA

$404M

No prior period
Adjusted EBITDA Margin

19.3%

No prior period
Adjusted Net Income

$179M

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

$310M

No prior period
Net Leverage Ratio

3

Previous: 2.8+7.1%
Net Debt

$5.05B

No prior period
Net Income

$138M

Previous: $196M-29.6%
Operating Income

$239M

Previous: $290M-17.6%
Gross Profit

$453M

Previous: $512M-11.5%

Revenue & EPS history

Graphic Packaging · Revenue · Quarterly

$2.1B

Q4 2024-6.8%vs Q4 2023
Beat estimate in 8 of 15 quarters(53%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

The Company currently expects 2025 Net Sales, Adjusted EBITDA, and Adjusted EPS, excluding foreign exchange impact, of $8.7 billion to $8.9 billion, $1.68 billion to $1.78 billion, and $2.53 to $2.78, respectively.

Tailwinds

  • Expected Net Sales of $8.6 billion to $8.8 billion.
  • Adjusted EBITDA expected to be $1.66 billion to $1.76 billion.
  • Adjusted EPS expected to be $2.48 to $2.73.
  • Capital spending is currently expected to be in the range of $700 million.
  • Company's Waco, Texas recycled paperboard investment moves toward completion.

Headwinds

  • Estimates current foreign exchange headwinds to Net Sales of approximately $120 million.
  • Estimates current foreign exchange headwinds to Adjusted EBITDA of approximately $20 million.
  • Estimates current foreign exchange headwinds to Adjusted EPS of approximately $0.05.
  • Inflation of and volatility in raw material and energy costs
  • Changes in consumer buying habits and product preferences

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2024

Historical avgQ4 2024

+0.7%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.3%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.3%

Avg return

30 days after

49%

32 / 65 earnings

Positive

+12.8%

Q3 2011

Best reaction

-15.6%

Q1 2025

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-0.9%+11.1%+11.2%
Q4 2025-8.1%-10.3%-24.8%
Q3 2025+9.0%+4.9%+0.9%
Q1 2025-15.6%-12.8%-12.2%
Q4 2024-2.5%-2.9%-1.9%
Q3 2024-6.9%-6.8%-1.1%
Q2 2024+7.5%+3.2%+5.1%
Q1 2024-6.4%-2.7%-1.4%
Q4 2023+6.3%+7.0%+13.6%
Q3 2023+3.1%+5.8%+8.6%
Q2 2023-3.7%-4.4%-8.1%
Q1 2023+1.9%+4.3%-1.9%
Q4 2022-2.2%-0.6%+4.1%
Q3 2022+8.9%+7.1%+5.0%
Q2 2022+3.3%+2.9%+8.3%
Q1 2022-0.3%+3.4%+1.8%
Q4 2021+7.0%+6.9%+6.0%
Q3 2021-1.9%-1.5%+3.9%
Q2 2021+8.1%+9.6%+15.3%
Q1 2021+0.6%+1.1%-3.7%
Q4 2020+1.8%+2.8%+3.0%
Q3 2020-4.7%-2.4%+9.4%
Q2 2020+0.8%+1.2%-1.9%
Q1 2020-1.5%-1.6%+2.4%
Q4 2019-2.1%-4.8%-17.6%
Q3 2019+5.1%+4.9%+7.7%
Q2 2019+6.7%+6.5%-5.8%
Q1 2019+5.5%+7.2%-2.2%
Q4 2018-1.3%+0.8%-0.1%
Q3 2018-14.4%-11.1%-4.5%
Q2 2018-4.0%-3.6%-4.6%
Q1 2018-7.2%-9.5%-5.2%
Q4 2017-1.9%-4.7%-0.5%
Q3 2017+7.3%+8.9%+4.4%
Q2 2017-4.7%-4.5%-5.6%
Q1 2017+0.0%+0.0%-0.5%
Q4 2016+3.8%+2.9%+1.3%
Q3 2016-9.5%-9.2%-5.8%
Q2 2016+5.3%+4.0%+10.5%
Q1 2016-0.4%
Q4 2015+6.6%
Q3 2015+6.0%
Q2 2015-1.0%
Q1 2015+3.5%
Q4 2014+1.3%
Q3 2014-3.0%
Q2 2014+6.3%
Q1 2014+4.3%
Q4 2013+4.7%
Q3 2013-2.1%
Q2 2013-4.0%
Q1 2013-1.7%
Q4 2012+2.1%
Q3 2012+5.3%
Q2 2012+10.3%
Q1 2011-2.4%
Q1 2012-2.4%
Q4 2009+2.9%
Q4 2011+2.9%
Q3 2010+12.8%
Q3 2011+12.8%
Q4 2010+0.0%
Q2 2010+0.0%
Q2 2011+0.0%
Q1 2010-8.7%

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