NYSE$GPK

Graphic Packaging Holding Co · Q3 2023 earnings

Q3 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported a decrease in net sales and net income, but an increase in adjusted EBITDA.

Graphic Packaging Holding Company reported a decrease in net sales and net income for the third quarter of 2023, but experienced an increase in adjusted EBITDA. The company continues to make progress on its Vision 2025 goals, including the CRB system transformation and the acquisition of Bell Incorporated.

  • Net sales decreased by 4% to $2,349 million compared to the prior year quarter.
  • Net income decreased by 12% to $170 million versus the prior year quarter.
  • Adjusted EBITDA increased by 9% to $482 million compared to the prior year quarter.
  • Earnings per diluted share decreased by 11% to $0.55 compared to the prior year quarter.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$2.35B

Previous: $2.45B-4.2%
EPS (adj)

$0.74

Previous: $0.67+10.4%
Adjusted EBITDA

$482M

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

$207M

No prior period
Net Leverage Ratio

3

Previous: 3.7-18.9%
Free Cash Flow

$153M

Previous: $177M-13.6%
Net Income

$170M

Previous: $193M-11.9%
Operating Income

$287M

Previous: $293M-2.0%
Gross Profit

$550M

Previous: $511M+7.6%
Cash & Equivalents

$146M

Previous: $82M+78.0%
Total Assets

$10.9B

Previous: $10.2B+7.1%

Revenue & EPS history

Graphic Packaging · Revenue · Quarterly

$2.35B

Q3 2023-4.2%vs Q3 2022
Beat estimate in 8 of 15 quarters(53%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

The Company updated its 2023 guidance to reflect current expectations and the acquisition of Bell Incorporated.

Tailwinds

  • Net Sales are expected to be $9.5 billion to $9.6 billion.
  • Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be $1.875 billion to $1.925 billion.
  • Adjusted Cash Flow is expected to be $600 million to $700 million.
  • Net Leverage Ratio at year-end is expected to be 2.6x to 2.7x Adjusted EBITDA.
  • Adjusted Earnings per Diluted Share (Excluding Amortization of Purchased Intangibles) is expected to be $2.85 to $3.00.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2023

Historical avgQ3 2023

+0.7%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.3%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.3%

Avg return

30 days after

49%

32 / 65 earnings

Positive

+12.8%

Q3 2011

Best reaction

-15.6%

Q1 2025

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-0.9%+11.1%+11.2%
Q4 2025-8.1%-10.3%-24.8%
Q3 2025+9.0%+4.9%+0.9%
Q1 2025-15.6%-12.8%-12.2%
Q4 2024-2.5%-2.9%-1.9%
Q3 2024-6.9%-6.8%-1.1%
Q2 2024+7.5%+3.2%+5.1%
Q1 2024-6.4%-2.7%-1.4%
Q4 2023+6.3%+7.0%+13.6%
Q3 2023+3.1%+5.8%+8.6%
Q2 2023-3.7%-4.4%-8.1%
Q1 2023+1.9%+4.3%-1.9%
Q4 2022-2.2%-0.6%+4.1%
Q3 2022+8.9%+7.1%+5.0%
Q2 2022+3.3%+2.9%+8.3%
Q1 2022-0.3%+3.4%+1.8%
Q4 2021+7.0%+6.9%+6.0%
Q3 2021-1.9%-1.5%+3.9%
Q2 2021+8.1%+9.6%+15.3%
Q1 2021+0.6%+1.1%-3.7%
Q4 2020+1.8%+2.8%+3.0%
Q3 2020-4.7%-2.4%+9.4%
Q2 2020+0.8%+1.2%-1.9%
Q1 2020-1.5%-1.6%+2.4%
Q4 2019-2.1%-4.8%-17.6%
Q3 2019+5.1%+4.9%+7.7%
Q2 2019+6.7%+6.5%-5.8%
Q1 2019+5.5%+7.2%-2.2%
Q4 2018-1.3%+0.8%-0.1%
Q3 2018-14.4%-11.1%-4.5%
Q2 2018-4.0%-3.6%-4.6%
Q1 2018-7.2%-9.5%-5.2%
Q4 2017-1.9%-4.7%-0.5%
Q3 2017+7.3%+8.9%+4.4%
Q2 2017-4.7%-4.5%-5.6%
Q1 2017+0.0%+0.0%-0.5%
Q4 2016+3.8%+2.9%+1.3%
Q3 2016-9.5%-9.2%-5.8%
Q2 2016+5.3%+4.0%+10.5%
Q1 2016-0.4%
Q4 2015+6.6%
Q3 2015+6.0%
Q2 2015-1.0%
Q1 2015+3.5%
Q4 2014+1.3%
Q3 2014-3.0%
Q2 2014+6.3%
Q1 2014+4.3%
Q4 2013+4.7%
Q3 2013-2.1%
Q2 2013-4.0%
Q1 2013-1.7%
Q4 2012+2.1%
Q3 2012+5.3%
Q2 2012+10.3%
Q1 2011-2.4%
Q1 2012-2.4%
Q4 2009+2.9%
Q4 2011+2.9%
Q3 2010+12.8%
Q3 2011+12.8%
Q4 2010+0.0%
Q2 2010+0.0%
Q2 2011+0.0%
Q1 2010-8.7%

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