NYSE$GPK

Graphic Packaging Holding Co · Q3 2024 earnings

Q3 2024 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Graphic Packaging experienced positive packaging volume growth and consistent margin strength.

Graphic Packaging reported a decrease in net sales and adjusted EBITDA compared to the prior year, but saw positive packaging volume growth and consistent margin strength. The company is targeting 2025 financial results in line with the Vision 2030 base financial model.

  • Returned to positive packaging volume growth.
  • Innovation sales growth reached $54 million.
  • Net sales decreased to $2,216 million compared to $2,349 million in the prior year.
  • Net income was $165 million, compared to $170 million in the prior year.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$2.22B

Previous: $2.35B-5.7%
EPS (adj)

$0.64

Previous: $0.74-13.5%
Capital Expenditures

-$24M

Previous: -$17M-41.2%
Free Cash Flow

$141M

Previous: $153M-7.8%
Net Income

$165M

Previous: $170M-2.9%
Operating Income

$278M

Previous: $287M-3.1%
Gross Profit

$502M

Previous: $550M-8.7%
Cash & Equivalents

$126M

Previous: $146M-13.7%
Total Assets

$11.2B

Previous: $10.9B+3.0%

Revenue & EPS history

Graphic Packaging · Revenue · Quarterly

$2.22B

Q3 2024-5.7%vs Q3 2023
Beat estimate in 8 of 15 quarters(53%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

The Company updated 2024 financial guidance and is currently targeting 2025 financial results in line with the Vision 2030 base financial model.

Tailwinds

  • Full-year Adjusted EBITDA: $1.68 billion to $1.73 billion
  • Adjusted Earnings per Diluted Share: $2.49 to $2.61
  • Low single-digit Sales growth
  • Mid single-digit Adjusted EBITDA growth
  • High single-digit Adjusted EPS growth

Headwinds

  • Inflation of and volatility in raw material and energy costs
  • Continuing pressure for lower cost products
  • The Company’s ability to implement its business strategies, including productivity initiatives, cost reduction plans
  • The Company’s debt level, currency movements and other risks of conducting business internationally
  • The impact of regulatory and litigation matters, including the continued availability of the Company's U.S. federal income tax attributes to offset U.S. federal income taxes and the timing related to the Company’s future U.S. federal income tax payments.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2024

Historical avgQ3 2024

+0.7%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.3%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.3%

Avg return

30 days after

49%

32 / 65 earnings

Positive

+12.8%

Q3 2011

Best reaction

-15.6%

Q1 2025

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-0.9%+11.1%+11.2%
Q4 2025-8.1%-10.3%-24.8%
Q3 2025+9.0%+4.9%+0.9%
Q1 2025-15.6%-12.8%-12.2%
Q4 2024-2.5%-2.9%-1.9%
Q3 2024-6.9%-6.8%-1.1%
Q2 2024+7.5%+3.2%+5.1%
Q1 2024-6.4%-2.7%-1.4%
Q4 2023+6.3%+7.0%+13.6%
Q3 2023+3.1%+5.8%+8.6%
Q2 2023-3.7%-4.4%-8.1%
Q1 2023+1.9%+4.3%-1.9%
Q4 2022-2.2%-0.6%+4.1%
Q3 2022+8.9%+7.1%+5.0%
Q2 2022+3.3%+2.9%+8.3%
Q1 2022-0.3%+3.4%+1.8%
Q4 2021+7.0%+6.9%+6.0%
Q3 2021-1.9%-1.5%+3.9%
Q2 2021+8.1%+9.6%+15.3%
Q1 2021+0.6%+1.1%-3.7%
Q4 2020+1.8%+2.8%+3.0%
Q3 2020-4.7%-2.4%+9.4%
Q2 2020+0.8%+1.2%-1.9%
Q1 2020-1.5%-1.6%+2.4%
Q4 2019-2.1%-4.8%-17.6%
Q3 2019+5.1%+4.9%+7.7%
Q2 2019+6.7%+6.5%-5.8%
Q1 2019+5.5%+7.2%-2.2%
Q4 2018-1.3%+0.8%-0.1%
Q3 2018-14.4%-11.1%-4.5%
Q2 2018-4.0%-3.6%-4.6%
Q1 2018-7.2%-9.5%-5.2%
Q4 2017-1.9%-4.7%-0.5%
Q3 2017+7.3%+8.9%+4.4%
Q2 2017-4.7%-4.5%-5.6%
Q1 2017+0.0%+0.0%-0.5%
Q4 2016+3.8%+2.9%+1.3%
Q3 2016-9.5%-9.2%-5.8%
Q2 2016+5.3%+4.0%+10.5%
Q1 2016-0.4%
Q4 2015+6.6%
Q3 2015+6.0%
Q2 2015-1.0%
Q1 2015+3.5%
Q4 2014+1.3%
Q3 2014-3.0%
Q2 2014+6.3%
Q1 2014+4.3%
Q4 2013+4.7%
Q3 2013-2.1%
Q2 2013-4.0%
Q1 2013-1.7%
Q4 2012+2.1%
Q3 2012+5.3%
Q2 2012+10.3%
Q1 2011-2.4%
Q1 2012-2.4%
Q4 2009+2.9%
Q4 2011+2.9%
Q3 2010+12.8%
Q3 2011+12.8%
Q4 2010+0.0%
Q2 2010+0.0%
Q2 2011+0.0%
Q1 2010-8.7%

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