NYSE$GPK

Graphic Packaging Holding Co · Q4 2020 earnings

Q4 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Graphic Packaging reported Q4 2020 results, with net sales increasing and strategic investments positioning the company for continued growth.

Graphic Packaging Holding Company reported a strong fourth quarter in 2020, with net sales increasing by 8.7% to $1,652.1 million. Net income attributable to Graphic Packaging Holding Company was $64.2 million, or $0.24 per share. The company's strategic investments and focus on sustainable packaging solutions are expected to drive continued growth in 2021.

  • Net sales increased by 8.7% to $1,652.1 million in Q4 2020.
  • Net income was $64.2 million, or $0.24 per share, compared to $33.0 million, or $0.11 per share in Q4 2019.
  • Adjusted EBITDA increased to $264.8 million from $258.8 million in Q4 2019.
  • The company plans to start up its new CRB machine in Kalamazoo, Michigan ahead of schedule in the fourth quarter of 2021.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$1.65B

Previous: $1.52B+8.7%
EPS (adj)

$0.28

Previous: $0.23+21.7%
Capital Expenditures

$221M

Previous: $123M+79.3%
Net Leverage Ratio

3.26

Previous: 2.64+23.5%
Net Income

$77.1M

Previous: $33M+133.6%
Operating Income

$130M

Previous: $133M-2.0%
Gross Profit

$262M

Previous: $272M-3.9%
Cash & Equivalents

$179M

Previous: $153M+17.1%
Total Assets

$7.8B

Previous: $7.29B+7.1%

Revenue & EPS history

Graphic Packaging · Revenue · Quarterly

$1.65B

Q4 2020+8.7%vs Q4 2019
Beat estimate in 10 of 16 quarters(63%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

The company expects to generate 100 to 200 basis points of sustainability supported net organic sales growth in 2021 and deliver net productivity improvements to drive continued EBITDA growth during the coming year.

Tailwinds

  • Strategic investments are positioning the company for continued growth.
  • Fiber-based packaging solutions are winning in growing markets.
  • Partnering with customers to elevate their brands.
  • Supporting customer and company sustainability goals.
  • Expect to generate 100 to 200 basis points of sustainability supported net organic sales growth in 2021.

Headwinds

  • Effects of the Covid-19 pandemic on the Company's operations and demand for its products
  • Inflation of and volatility in raw material and energy costs
  • Continuing pressure for lower cost products
  • The Company’s ability to implement its business strategies, including productivity initiatives, cost reduction plans, and integration activities
  • The Company’s debt level, currency movements and other risks of conducting business internationally

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2020

Historical avgQ4 2020

+0.7%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.3%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.3%

Avg return

30 days after

49%

32 / 65 earnings

Positive

+12.8%

Q3 2011

Best reaction

-15.6%

Q1 2025

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-0.9%+11.1%+11.2%
Q4 2025-8.1%-10.3%-24.8%
Q3 2025+9.0%+4.9%+0.9%
Q1 2025-15.6%-12.8%-12.2%
Q4 2024-2.5%-2.9%-1.9%
Q3 2024-6.9%-6.8%-1.1%
Q2 2024+7.5%+3.2%+5.1%
Q1 2024-6.4%-2.7%-1.4%
Q4 2023+6.3%+7.0%+13.6%
Q3 2023+3.1%+5.8%+8.6%
Q2 2023-3.7%-4.4%-8.1%
Q1 2023+1.9%+4.3%-1.9%
Q4 2022-2.2%-0.6%+4.1%
Q3 2022+8.9%+7.1%+5.0%
Q2 2022+3.3%+2.9%+8.3%
Q1 2022-0.3%+3.4%+1.8%
Q4 2021+7.0%+6.9%+6.0%
Q3 2021-1.9%-1.5%+3.9%
Q2 2021+8.1%+9.6%+15.3%
Q1 2021+0.6%+1.1%-3.7%
Q4 2020+1.8%+2.8%+3.0%
Q3 2020-4.7%-2.4%+9.4%
Q2 2020+0.8%+1.2%-1.9%
Q1 2020-1.5%-1.6%+2.4%
Q4 2019-2.1%-4.8%-17.6%
Q3 2019+5.1%+4.9%+7.7%
Q2 2019+6.7%+6.5%-5.8%
Q1 2019+5.5%+7.2%-2.2%
Q4 2018-1.3%+0.8%-0.1%
Q3 2018-14.4%-11.1%-4.5%
Q2 2018-4.0%-3.6%-4.6%
Q1 2018-7.2%-9.5%-5.2%
Q4 2017-1.9%-4.7%-0.5%
Q3 2017+7.3%+8.9%+4.4%
Q2 2017-4.7%-4.5%-5.6%
Q1 2017+0.0%+0.0%-0.5%
Q4 2016+3.8%+2.9%+1.3%
Q3 2016-9.5%-9.2%-5.8%
Q2 2016+5.3%+4.0%+10.5%
Q1 2016-0.4%
Q4 2015+6.6%
Q3 2015+6.0%
Q2 2015-1.0%
Q1 2015+3.5%
Q4 2014+1.3%
Q3 2014-3.0%
Q2 2014+6.3%
Q1 2014+4.3%
Q4 2013+4.7%
Q3 2013-2.1%
Q2 2013-4.0%
Q1 2013-1.7%
Q4 2012+2.1%
Q3 2012+5.3%
Q2 2012+10.3%
Q1 2011-2.4%
Q1 2012-2.4%
Q4 2009+2.9%
Q4 2011+2.9%
Q3 2010+12.8%
Q3 2011+12.8%
Q4 2010+0.0%
Q2 2010+0.0%
Q2 2011+0.0%
Q1 2010-8.7%

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