NYSE$CVNA

Carvana Co · Q4 2023 earnings

Q4 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Carvana reported a decrease in revenue but a significant increase in gross profit and GPU, demonstrating substantial progress towards profitability.

Carvana's Q4 2023 results showed a decrease in retail units sold and revenue compared to Q4 2022, but a significant increase in total gross profit and total GPU. The company achieved record fourth quarter Total GPU and record fourth quarter Adjusted EBITDA, highlighting continued progress on its three-step plan for driving positive free cash flow.

  • Retail units sold totaled 76,090, a decrease of 13% year-over-year.
  • Revenue totaled $2.424 billion, a decrease of 15% year-over-year.
  • Total gross profit was $402 million, an increase of 108% year-over-year.
  • Total gross profit per unit (GPU) was $5,283, an increase of $3,064 year-over-year.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$2.42B

Previous: $2.84B-14.6%
EPS (adj)

-$1.00

Previous: $0.39-356.4%
Retail Units Sold

76.1K

Previous: 87.0K-12.5%
Wholesale Units Sold

34.1K

Previous: 39.9K-14.6%
Capital Expenditures

-$18M

Previous: $61M-129.5%
Net Income

-$200M

Previous: -$1.44B+86.1%
Operating Income

$48M

Previous: -$847M+105.7%
Gross Profit

$402M

Previous: $193M+108.3%
Stock-Based Comp

$21M

Previous: $12M+75.0%

Revenue & EPS history

Carvana · Revenue · Quarterly

$2.42B

Q4 2023-14.6%vs Q4 2022
Beat estimate in 11 of 15 quarters(73%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

For Q1 2024, Carvana expects retail units sold to be slightly up year-over-year and Adjusted EBITDA to be significantly above $100 million, driven by strength throughout the business.

Tailwinds

  • Expects Retail GPU similar to Q4 (with potential for upside)
  • Sequential increases in Wholesale GPU
  • Sequential increases in Other GPU
  • Sequential reduction in SG&A expense per retail unit sold
  • Expects to grow retail units sold and Adjusted EBITDA compared to FY 2023

Headwinds

  • Macroeconomic and industry environment continues to be uncertain
  • Outlook does not anticipate any material one time benefits or costs
  • Fourth quarter is typically the weakest quarter for industry-wide used vehicle volume
  • Fourth quarter is typically the weakest quarter for retail and wholesale depreciation rates
  • Fourth quarter is typically the weakest quarter for wholesale auction volume

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2023

Historical avgQ4 2023

+8.0%

Avg return

Earnings day

+6.8%

Avg return

5 days after

+12.7%

Avg return

30 days after

62%

23 / 37 earnings

Positive

+40.7%

Q1 2017

Best reaction

-35.0%

Q3 2022

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+2.3%-4.4%-8.1%
Q4 2025+16.3%-10.1%-22.2%
Q3 2025-8.4%-12.5%+5.8%
Q2 2025+17.0%+5.1%+11.5%
Q1 2025+10.2%+13.1%+31.8%
Q4 2024-12.1%-21.3%-32.2%
Q3 2024+18.5%+8.3%+24.8%
Q2 2024+15.6%+6.8%+18.8%
Q1 2024+40.5%+48.3%+20.6%
Q4 2023+40.1%+62.8%+74.0%
Q3 2023+24.2%+31.5%+35.4%
Q2 2023+17.4%+16.2%-1.5%
Q1 2023+26.7%+67.6%+121.8%
Q4 2022-20.5%-6.5%-18.7%
Q3 2022-35.0%-45.4%-40.1%
Q2 2022+34.6%+18.7%-9.5%
Q1 2022-18.3%-20.2%-67.0%
Q4 2021+34.2%+27.6%+13.1%
Q3 2021-1.2%-1.8%-13.3%
Q2 2021+4.5%+11.8%-0.7%
Q1 2021-11.7%-14.8%-0.3%
Q4 2020-0.5%+10.5%-9.1%
Q3 2020-8.7%-5.9%+22.7%
Q2 2020+33.8%+14.1%+12.2%
Q1 2020+13.6%+17.1%+34.7%
Q4 2019-14.7%-20.8%-52.9%
Q3 2019-10.3%-4.9%+6.0%
Q2 2019+21.2%+31.1%+39.9%
Q1 2019+5.9%-12.4%-11.0%
Q4 2018+10.8%+3.9%+43.4%
Q3 2018+14.3%-2.3%-20.7%
Q2 2018+8.4%+13.8%+30.4%
Q1 2018+7.2%+8.9%+44.3%
Q4 2017-6.3%-3.2%+25.2%
Q3 2017-10.4%-13.3%+34.6%
Q2 2017-2.6%-12.1%+1.0%
Q1 2017+40.7%+47.8%+124.2%
Q4 2016
Q3 2016
Q2 2016
Q1 2016
Q4 2015

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