NYSE$CVNA

Carvana Co · Q3 2021 earnings

Q3 2021 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Carvana had a strong quarter, delivering significant growth in retail units and revenue despite operational constraints. The company achieved positive EBITDA for the second consecutive quarter and continued to expand its market presence through new partnerships and geographic expansion.

Carvana's Q3 2021 showed significant growth with a 125% increase in revenue to $3.5 billion and a 74% increase in retail units sold. Despite operational constraints and the Delta variant impact, the company achieved positive EBITDA for the second consecutive quarter and expanded its market coverage.

  • Retail units sold increased by 74% year-over-year, reaching 111,949 units.
  • Revenue grew by 125% year-over-year to $3.480 billion.
  • Total gross profit increased by 100% year-over-year to $523 million.
  • The company expanded its population coverage to 80.6% with the addition of 9 new markets.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$3.48B

Previous: $1.54B+125.4%
EPS (adj)

-$0.38

Previous: -$0.10-280.0%
Retail Units Sold

111.9K

Previous: 64.4K+73.8%
Wholesale Units Sold

50.2K

Previous: 15.4K+226.5%
Capital Expenditures

-$390M

Previous: -$270M-44.2%
Free Cash Flow

-$422M

Previous: -$278M-52.0%
Net Income

-$32M

Previous: -$7.09M-351.7%
Operating Income

-$49M

Previous: -$15.9M-209.1%
Gross Profit

$523M

Previous: $261M+100.2%
Cash & Equivalents

$297M

Previous: $174M+71.0%
Total Assets

$5.36B

Previous: $2.73B+96.1%

Revenue & EPS history

Carvana · Revenue · Quarterly

$3.48B

Q3 2021+125.4%vs Q3 2020
Beat estimate in 10 of 16 quarters(63%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

Carvana expects retail units sold to be governed primarily by operational capacity. Revenue growth in Q4 is expected to align more closely with retail unit growth. Total GPU is expected to be in the low-to-mid $4,000s for the full year. The company plans to continue investing in the business, leading to a seasonal sequential increase in SG&A per retail unit in Q4 and close to breakeven EBITDA margin for the full year.

Tailwinds

  • Exceptional demand is expected to continue.
  • Revenue growth in Q4 is expected to align more closely with retail unit growth.
  • Total GPU is expected to be in the low-to-mid $4,000s for the full year.
  • Operational capacity is expected to increase in Q4 with an eye toward 2022.
  • The company is well on its way to selling more than 2 million cars per year.

Headwinds

  • Operational capacity will primarily govern retail units sold.
  • Q4 GPU is expected to be lower than Q3 due to seasonal patterns.
  • A seasonal sequential increase in SG&A per retail unit is expected in Q4.
  • EBITDA margin is expected to be close to breakeven for the full year.
  • The company faces a unique hiring environment.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2021

Historical avgQ3 2021

+8.0%

Avg return

Earnings day

+6.8%

Avg return

5 days after

+12.7%

Avg return

30 days after

62%

23 / 37 earnings

Positive

+40.7%

Q1 2017

Best reaction

-35.0%

Q3 2022

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+2.3%-4.4%-8.1%
Q4 2025+16.3%-10.1%-22.2%
Q3 2025-8.4%-12.5%+5.8%
Q2 2025+17.0%+5.1%+11.5%
Q1 2025+10.2%+13.1%+31.8%
Q4 2024-12.1%-21.3%-32.2%
Q3 2024+18.5%+8.3%+24.8%
Q2 2024+15.6%+6.8%+18.8%
Q1 2024+40.5%+48.3%+20.6%
Q4 2023+40.1%+62.8%+74.0%
Q3 2023+24.2%+31.5%+35.4%
Q2 2023+17.4%+16.2%-1.5%
Q1 2023+26.7%+67.6%+121.8%
Q4 2022-20.5%-6.5%-18.7%
Q3 2022-35.0%-45.4%-40.1%
Q2 2022+34.6%+18.7%-9.5%
Q1 2022-18.3%-20.2%-67.0%
Q4 2021+34.2%+27.6%+13.1%
Q3 2021-1.2%-1.8%-13.3%
Q2 2021+4.5%+11.8%-0.7%
Q1 2021-11.7%-14.8%-0.3%
Q4 2020-0.5%+10.5%-9.1%
Q3 2020-8.7%-5.9%+22.7%
Q2 2020+33.8%+14.1%+12.2%
Q1 2020+13.6%+17.1%+34.7%
Q4 2019-14.7%-20.8%-52.9%
Q3 2019-10.3%-4.9%+6.0%
Q2 2019+21.2%+31.1%+39.9%
Q1 2019+5.9%-12.4%-11.0%
Q4 2018+10.8%+3.9%+43.4%
Q3 2018+14.3%-2.3%-20.7%
Q2 2018+8.4%+13.8%+30.4%
Q1 2018+7.2%+8.9%+44.3%
Q4 2017-6.3%-3.2%+25.2%
Q3 2017-10.4%-13.3%+34.6%
Q2 2017-2.6%-12.1%+1.0%
Q1 2017+40.7%+47.8%+124.2%
Q4 2016
Q3 2016
Q2 2016
Q1 2016
Q4 2015

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