NYSE$CVNA

Carvana Co · Q4 2022 earnings

Q4 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Carvana faced a challenging year with decreased retail units sold and gross profit, but made significant progress in reducing SG&A expenses and positioning for future profitability.

Carvana's Q4 2022 results showed a decrease in retail units sold, revenue, and gross profit compared to Q4 2021. The company experienced a net loss and a decrease in Adjusted EBITDA margin. However, Carvana made progress in reducing SG&A expenses and is focused on driving the business to positive free cash flow.

  • Retail units sold totaled 86,977, a decrease of 23%.
  • Revenue totaled $2.837 billion, a decrease of 24%.
  • Total gross profit was $193 million, a decrease of 63%.
  • Basic and diluted net loss per Class A share was $7.61.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$2.84B

Previous: $3.75B-24.4%
EPS (adj)

$0.39

Previous: -$1.02+138.2%
Retail Units Sold

87.0K

Previous: 113.0K-23.0%
Wholesale Units Sold

39.9K

Previous: 46.8K-14.6%
Capital Expenditures

$61M

Previous: $167M-63.5%
Free Cash Flow

-$800M

Previous: -$1.34B+40.3%
Net Income

-$1.44B

Previous: -$182M-691.8%
Operating Income

-$847M

No prior period
Gross Profit

$193M

Previous: $516M-62.6%
Cash & Equivalents

$434M

Previous: $403M+7.7%
Total Assets

$8.7B

Previous: $7.02B+24.0%
Stock-Based Comp

$12M

Previous: $11M+9.1%

Revenue & EPS history

Carvana · Revenue · Quarterly

$2.84B

Q4 2022-24.4%vs Q4 2021
Beat estimate in 11 of 15 quarters(73%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

Carvana expects a sequential reduction in retail units sold in Q1 2023 compared to Q4 2022. They are targeting an aggregate ~$100 million reduction in quarterly Non-GAAP SG&A expense by Q2 2023, compared to Q4 2022.

Tailwinds

  • Sequential increase in Total GPU in Q1 2023 compared to Q4 2022 is expected.
  • Retail GPU is expected to increase in Q1 due to offsetting effects.
  • Lower inventory size is expected to lead to a retail inventory allowance adjustment benefit in Q1.
  • Sequential increase in Other GPU in Q1 following the shift in the timing of loan sales from December 2022 to January 2023 is anticipated.
  • Targeting an aggregate ~$100 million reduction in quarterly Non-GAAP SG&A expense by Q2 2023, compared to Q4 2022.

Headwinds

  • Sequential reduction in retail units sold in Q1 2023 compared to Q4 2022 is expected.
  • Continue to normalize our inventory size.
  • Optimize marketing spend.
  • Make progress on our profitability initiatives.
  • Increase in sales expected in tax season to be muted this year relative to past years.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2022

Historical avgQ4 2022

+8.0%

Avg return

Earnings day

+6.8%

Avg return

5 days after

+12.7%

Avg return

30 days after

62%

23 / 37 earnings

Positive

+40.7%

Q1 2017

Best reaction

-35.0%

Q3 2022

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+2.3%-4.4%-8.1%
Q4 2025+16.3%-10.1%-22.2%
Q3 2025-8.4%-12.5%+5.8%
Q2 2025+17.0%+5.1%+11.5%
Q1 2025+10.2%+13.1%+31.8%
Q4 2024-12.1%-21.3%-32.2%
Q3 2024+18.5%+8.3%+24.8%
Q2 2024+15.6%+6.8%+18.8%
Q1 2024+40.5%+48.3%+20.6%
Q4 2023+40.1%+62.8%+74.0%
Q3 2023+24.2%+31.5%+35.4%
Q2 2023+17.4%+16.2%-1.5%
Q1 2023+26.7%+67.6%+121.8%
Q4 2022-20.5%-6.5%-18.7%
Q3 2022-35.0%-45.4%-40.1%
Q2 2022+34.6%+18.7%-9.5%
Q1 2022-18.3%-20.2%-67.0%
Q4 2021+34.2%+27.6%+13.1%
Q3 2021-1.2%-1.8%-13.3%
Q2 2021+4.5%+11.8%-0.7%
Q1 2021-11.7%-14.8%-0.3%
Q4 2020-0.5%+10.5%-9.1%
Q3 2020-8.7%-5.9%+22.7%
Q2 2020+33.8%+14.1%+12.2%
Q1 2020+13.6%+17.1%+34.7%
Q4 2019-14.7%-20.8%-52.9%
Q3 2019-10.3%-4.9%+6.0%
Q2 2019+21.2%+31.1%+39.9%
Q1 2019+5.9%-12.4%-11.0%
Q4 2018+10.8%+3.9%+43.4%
Q3 2018+14.3%-2.3%-20.7%
Q2 2018+8.4%+13.8%+30.4%
Q1 2018+7.2%+8.9%+44.3%
Q4 2017-6.3%-3.2%+25.2%
Q3 2017-10.4%-13.3%+34.6%
Q2 2017-2.6%-12.1%+1.0%
Q1 2017+40.7%+47.8%+124.2%
Q4 2016
Q3 2016
Q2 2016
Q1 2016
Q4 2015

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